Monday, October 31, 2016

discussions about Comey

My views of the Comey action are very strongly colored by decades of observing and trying to follow legal rules back when I was a government official even at a much lower level.

Of course I also remember being on a jury when the whole thing was dissolved because a prosecutor disobeyed the rules of how you get evidence. That frustrates people a lot, but has been deeply enshrined in law because of the importance of obeying rules of privacy and human rights. When Russian hackers violate privacy of DNC, and Trump positively encourages them that way, it is hard for me to imagine folks who pretend to be libertarians who want to use such wrongfully gathered information, who cheer the violation of privacy and of US integrity, and convince themselves to be more shocked by a Secretary of State making evaluations and decisions about minor matters of foreign policy than about fundamental violation of bedrock of our system. Dead serious.

And Inspectors General at NSF had very clear rules about not saying anything about ongoing investigations, even under the new gestapo. This is also hugely worrisome.

And then the discussion of Comey.

The obvious first conclusion is that he was under HUGE PRESSURE, pressure to violate the very foundations of the democratic system as well as long-standing traditions and rules, even under advice from unconflicted people above him in the nominal chain of command (a chain of command increasingly supplanted by another one...) Pressure form moles in the FBI itself loyal to that other chain of command with heavy external support.

"What could he do under such pressure?" asked Luda. "Resign? Then you accomplish nothing."
Actually I faced that same choice myself when under pressure from that same interagency gestapo.
I remembered Hippocrates: "First do no harm." There actually are times when it is more responsible to resign or retire than to give in, when zero is a better accomplishment than what Comey chose to do under these new pressures. (Was it Chafitz from Utah who also felt similar pressures and tortuously buckled under?) And that's what I did. There are times when the right way is a third alternative, to fight the improper pressures... which Comey was in a good position to do.. not appropriate for me for a number of reasons  (other issues in play and need to consider them).. and it is deeply worrisome indeed that he did not value the Constitution and the Republic enough to do that.

Of course I remember the last chapter of the book "A G-Man's journal," newspaper accounts of the reorganizations and changes of rules led by Cheney (all well before the gestapo extended to other agencies), and experiences of people like Pete Worden and Hansen of NASA... but back to physics and private sector solar power stuff. Best of luck.

-- Clearly the folks within FBI who pressured Comey should be investigated.
-- And: Trump's embrace of Comey and quick shift make it clear that if elected he would be happy to make a deal to become Queen of England.

POOR PEOPLE WHO LOOK FORWARD TO THE END OF EXPANDING NONSENSE
AFTER ELECTION DAY! No matter who is elected, and what they do, it will not be that way. If even the head of the FBI feels overwhelmed, and if Secretaries of State are no longer permitted to override decisions by gestapo on what US foreign policy should be (including information flows, a key part of any foreign policy)...

Wouldn't whistle blowers have told everyone? Not if they were informed that such things get immediately forwarded to Lamar Smith, and there were recent cases of folks who succeeded with special congressional investigators who even then were quietly removed from the picture...

Trump says he will drain the swamp. As he vacillates on behavior like Comey's, compliant to the wrong kind of pressure... would Trump clear just enough space in the swamp to make room for a TV studio for himself? If the alligators flatter him enough, will he be happy just to bask in the sun himself and let them eat the rest of the world alive? In other words, is he even more of a vain wimp than Jeb Bush ever was? For now, he is acting that way. (I remember when Sanders's popularity rose after "To hell with the damn emails." Maybe Trump is more of a wimp than Sanders ever was.)


Friday, October 28, 2016

Reruns can be fatal

I swore to pay more attention to quantum optics this week than to other things... and mostly I have.
(Guess why I don't just post exciting new equations?) But CNN and other political inputs are ever more difficult to ignore.

I mentioned before how I have seen many many satellites of the visible Clinton transition teams,
all very excited but not mutually consistent. And signs of Trump preparations, a lot more quiet. And, even stronger, preparations for what to do after Clinton is elected and promptly either removed from office or under virtual house arrest. It is a great shame that CNN tells us so little about the Rousseff situation in Brazil, which in many ways was a rehearsal, giving us some indication of what we might expect here.

Just yesterday, the House Republican who runs investigations told us gleefully how he has years worth of material to run with, and that it will never end. Cruz has promised he will block the government, with more energy than before and strong external support. And...

Many people are saying the US government is now hopelessly corrupt and nonfunctional -- and certainly we would be idiots to miss the evidence of that. And some even cite the glories of the Roman Empire under Trajan (and Pontifices Maximi serving the emperors), which resulted when Romans agreed the old system had become unworkable.

In my view, 90% of our chances of survival as a species require that we STRENGTHEN and REINVIGORATE democracy, the traditions we get from folks like George Washington and Jefferson
and Locke and John Stuart Mills, and not give way to the new gestapos.

Trump has promised to break the corruption in Washington, to be a new Teddy Roosevelt... and oh could we use what he promised!!! But... he sounds at times like a reformed drug addict (addicted to the old system), a prisoner of it and reinforcing it even as he promises the reverse. Not enough sheer cognitive power to offer real hope of a better way.

So why don't I just trust the New Imperium people to protect US national security for example? Because  I have lived and breathed the ground truth, which is quite different from the old imperial fantasies, which never worked in Rome either. (To this day, southern Spain suffers from the destruction wraught by the latifundia system.) I have seen folks like Lamar Smith BOTH running kangaroo courts to try to get Hilary Clinton, AND forcing changes in NSF and NASA substantially weakening US national security, based on a very deep misunderstanding of what an information economy is and what it takes to stay ahead. After bandits make their kill, they divide up the loot...

All for now.


==============
Of course, back when Trump's chances seemed better, they were amazingly open about how they would take over from him, which would be much easier than with Hilary. It amazes me just how much has been done SO blatantly... but it will probably be soon enough that even the blind can see.
Trump has zero chance to become a new Julius Caesar; he is no general, and they certainly know that. So many structures have been realigned... and Trump himself actually sees a lot of the data, just refusing to assemble the implications in his mind because he doesn't like the implications.

But me... I resolve to try harder to get back to photonic kinds of things.
==========

Am deep into photonics, but a simple question hits me about these emails:

If FBI has an existing database of Clinton emails, and a database of what is on this computer,
isn't it a rather straightforward software task to create a subset of what is on the computer MINUS things they have seen before? And then see whether hillary clinton's email address exists on any of them? Or vice-versa: use google search to see which subset has clinton's email address, and then test that subset for anything they haven't seen?

If they think they can't do that within three days, they really should ask NSDA for help in using computers. Given how incredibly serious this is, failure to do what is easy would be really serious criminal behavior, of utmost threat to the Constitution, a whole lot more grave than anything Hilary Clinton has done.

By the way, the federal employees' unions did try hard to warn Obama of the ground level takeovers, but instead of fixing anything all he did was issue PR pablum. "I have your back," he said to folks who knew about the blood on ever so many people's backs. Would Trump also be ready to play Queen of England, symbolic but meaningless?

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Adventures in high mountains seeking enlightenment

Long ago, my father was greatly impressed by Shirley MacLaine's (sp?) book Out on a Limb,
where she described how she followed a gure/shama in the high Andes of Peru who at one point asked her to follow him on a narrow (half-meter) rock trail with a huge cliff drop off right next to her, where she could easily die by slipping just once. As I read it I said: "Nice story, but I would never follow such a guru, as his request would be enough to make me question his wisdom." Many years later, my wife Ludmilla dragged me and our small son on a trail in Crimea which was in fact much scarier, more like eight inches, loose dirt, tilting towards really impressive jagged teeth and whirlpools to our right... But back to the kinder, gentler world of the Andes, which Luda and I visited Sept. 30 - Oct 15.

Before the trip, I joked at Quakers: "A majority of Quakers revere our father in heaven. But many also deeply revere the earth. What do you call those Quakers who seriously connect to the earth?
Earthquakers, of course." Well, there actually has been an interesting bit of earthquaking lately, so maybe it's time to 'fess up and post a message which I sent a few days ago to the most interesting shaman I met in the course of this trip:

==========================================================
===========================================================


Buenos tardes, ....l!

Debido a que mi español no es tan bueno, que escribo en Inglés primero - con una versión española del traductor Google a continuación.

============= Ingles

Thank you very much for leading me and my wife Ludmila near the Great Inca on Thursday, October 13.

I was deeply interested to learn more about your traditions, because I have worked for years to try to understand how to reconcile the worlds of science and the world of spirit. Deep study of the science convinced me more and more that your feelings are closer to the objective truth than the type of Catholicism they taught me when I was a young boy. It was a great pleasure to meet you, and see how strong your connection is to the real world, a connection which has been lost by many proud and formal political types of theologians.

On October 12, on Amantina, in meditation, I felt called to try to translate my own understanding of spiritual reality (informed BOTH by science and by my own experience) into the language of the family I was saying with. My Spanish is still not so good, but I discussed it with my friend Yeshua of that same old family of Israel; I have attached a paper in Spanish which I hope might be of some use to your people. Because Yeshua and I are also active in science, please do not tell our full names to others; this is for you, to do with whatever you please. I hope it helps, and I hope we can find other ways to help your people and culture.

For you in Peru it is very tricky how the Catholic Church hosts a mix of very good and very zombie-like people. For a long time, I have known great people in Chile and elsewhere who are devoted to the teachings of Teilhard de Chardin, who made a truly great effort to unify science and religion. His concept of “noosphere” is very similar to “Gaia” and “Pachamama,” but many Catholics were upset that he did not include the concept of Jesus and the Emperor as co-creators of the universe, a concept which I have seen on a big plaque at the entrance to Hagia Sophia, due to Emperor Constantine. Many Catholics noticed that Teilhard’s concept of evolution was not logically complete, and they gave up the effort to reconcile science and religion. But the simmering conflict between science and religion has created growing conflict all over the earth, and many contradictions and wars; truth demands that we not give up. It also demands that we both build cooperatoin and dialogue with the better half of Catholicism, to work for more universal dialogue and synthesis.

In Russia, I published a paper which fills the hole in Teilhard de Chardin; it is posted at www.werbos.com/Mind_in_Time.pdf. The paper attached is basically just a translation into everyday Spanish of the core practical concepts in that paper. It requires a great step forward to consider that our noosphere is actually just one organism in an entire species, and that something like dark matter and dark energy (or additional things we do not yet see in physics so far) has provided a solid base for its evolution over many, many millions of years.

Thank you for October 13, and thank you for your patience.

=======================================

De octubre de 2016, un mensaje de Yeshua y Paul, de Amantina y ampliado más tarde:
¿Cuál es es la Pachamama? y ¿Cuál es es la Pachatata?

Como un ser humano, Pachamama es real, es una persona, tiene la intelligencia, y  es
un sistema con partes y relaciones.
Pachamama es una niña. Por supuesto, una niña de la especie humana es mucho más inteligente que un pez adulto. Del mismo modo, una niña de especies de Pachamama es mucho más inteligente que un cuerpo humano adulto. Esto es maravilloso porque, aun cuando ya es una madre que da vida, también implica que La Pachamama del futuro debe desarrollar y evolucionar así una inteligencia y sabiduría ampliamente superior a la que posee ahora y llegara a ser La Abuela Tierra.
Al mismo tiempo, Pachamama nosostros es, más o menos. . Mas precisamente, Pachamama es un sistema integrado por cinco (5) grupos los cuales conforman sus partes: almas humanas, almas animales, diversos almas arquetípicas (como el principio activo del sol, de manera similar al espíritu de Santa Claus y como Apus) , la matriz espiritual y la matriz material. El cuerpo humano es también una sistema con partes tales como las células (similar a la matriz material); las almas serian algo así como las células del cuerpo. También podríamos concebir la matriz, en un nivel mayor de organización, como los huesos del esqueleto.
El desarrollo de la Pachamama requerirá que sus células -- nuestras almas – se desarrollen como sabios pensadores y pensadoras libres, con una fuerte fundación en valores espirituales y universales, con conexiones solidas para la cooperación entre la gran diversidad de sus partes. Esta concepción nos abre las puertas a entender que así como en la mente de una niña existen algunas ideas “locas”, dichas ideas están relacionadas a un fuerte deseo de aprender para crear un futuro mejor.
La niña Pachamama cuenta con el apoyo continuo de Pachatata, quien es un adulto de la misma especie, su Padre en el Cielo. Él es el mismo Padre en el Cielo que Jesucristo habló, no Jehová y no el concepto Emperadores del Creador, ambos de los cuales son sólo los arquetipos y las sombras de la verdadera persona Pachatata. Pachatata en realidad puede ser llamado "Pater Galacticus", un nombre más universal, que nos recuerda que él es nuestra conexión con nuestra familia entera de la galaxia, que es posible que algún día comprender mucho mejor, si desarrollamos lo suficientemente lejos. Nuestra magnífica amigo Jesus el Cristo (Mesias) fue uno de los guías y profetas (Shamanes) del antiguo pueblo de Israel. El fue un alma muy especial en el ceno de Pachamama y arquetipo de reflexión profunda para lograr una relación intima con la vida y el universo entero, lo que permite construir un camino hacia la paz y la vida en armonía. Como un adulto, Pachatata es llena de matemáticos y seres conscientes de ciencias superiores, mucho más amplias que todo el cuerpo de las ciencias asociadas a la inteligencia humana de esta pequeña Tierra. Matemática profunda es una evidencia de la relación con Pachatata, más allá de lo que cualquiera de sus sombras puede ofrecer.
Pachamama es muy femenina y masculina Pachatata? Tal vez vamos a saber algún día, pero por ahora somos como un feto especular sobre la livesâ el sexo de nuestros padres.
El cuerpo humano necesita de muchos tipos de células para su existencia y así también, La Pachamama necesita de muchos tipos de alma para su existencia. Aquí en Amantina la vida se basa en la agricultura, parte muy importante para la vida del ser humano, así como también lo son las almas de dichos seres humanos, quienes reciben sus inspiraciones de la mente universal de “El Páter Galáctico” para poder atender y ver con claridad las circunstancias de la actualidad. Así concluimos, que nuestra relación con Pachamama y Pachatata es de vital importancia para el desarrollo y el logro de esta conexión, algo que es de muy alta prioridad para toda la humanidad.
Cuando regresamos de los santuarios de Pachamama y Pachatata, le dije a Gabriel:
”Los jóvenes han subido al santuario de La Pachamama y yo principalmente me enfoque en la conexión y en la experiencia intima. Mi realización me llevó a concluir que así como nuestra conexión con La Pachamama es muy importante, la línea de conexión de La Pachamama a Pachatata es también muy importante “. El respondió con un: ¡Si! “
La Pachamama no se alimenta de frutas. Darle frutas a La Pachamama sería como donarle semillas para pájaros a una niña humana.  Así que debemos cuidarla como la niña que ella todavía es, lo cual es de vital importancia para ella y para eso contamos con el amor y apoyo incondicional de “ El Pater Galactico”.

=======================================================

That was intended to be brief and earthy, not complete. The original was even shorter, but Yeshua and I between us could easily lengthen it and make it more precise.

For example, I earlier posted a photo of the books which Mahatma Ghandi was reading in Mumbai, including a number by Annie Besant, who was his teacher in many areas. (Google maps would show you the street in Mumbai today named after her.) She had a book on Thought Forms which relates to the situation above. 

Someday I should probably buy the more recent book by (Joanne? Joan?) Wilcox on Peruvian mysticism. 
But today I want to get back to certain questions in quantum optics, simple questions I have postponed too long. 

At one point, the shaman asked us to name some great mountain spirit or apu we could relate to. 
 This was an interesting test of conscience. My principles say I should face up to and embrace important direct experience, not imposing premature entanglement with my theoretical understanding. I had to admit I have had very powerful and meaningful feelings near the top of many mountains in this world, and that there was a spiritual energy I could fully identify with. As we left the area by the Great Inca monument,
I said: "I can really understand, make sense of, pachamama and pachatata, but apus (their vision of mountain spirits are tricky. Maybe it is enough to feel, respect and even love them, even if one does not fully understand or have a model...." Yes, that was enough. When I say "it is a type of archetypical alma," that is a bit of a cop out, like saying "That cell in the neocortex... is not a pyramid cell, so I will call it an interneuron." That's valid, but there are many KINDS of interneuron. And in addition, whatever an "apu" is (a cell or an emergent hybrid of some kind)... it certainly has aspects of material matrix... and may get to inherent ambiguities in the usual words used to partition anatomy. Whatever.  

When first asked, I automatically said Mount Washington (though I at first slipped saying George Washington, a kind of Freudian slip maybe). On a third iteration, Wudangshan. Luda picked the big one in Bolivia first time, then shifted to Huang Shan. Later, I remember our experience on Hua Shan, especially when our attractive Liu family guide kowtowed to a statue representing the mountain while I tuned into the mountain itself right there before us...  I certainly remembered feelings of being invigored in a full-body full-soul kind of way near the top of that mountain...  which I also felt nearing the border with Switzerland climbing up a trail form Maltrasio in Italy.
This morning I mused: "Why did I not mention Alma itself, a fitting gateway to the galaxy?"

Whatever. The gateway of mathematics.. I resolve to stop these words now and get to that already. At least for a small while, a small peek into places no human has ever peeked yet...  

==============

With this subject line, why did I not mention Tibet? Several reasons. For example: I lost email contact there due to great firewall of China. Another: too complex to add to this email. 

==============

Added October 29:

Someone might misunderstand or have anxieties about what I was thinking about at the very start of this post when I talked about a whole lot of earthquaking going on. Among the many things on my mind, I thought of the earthquakes in Rome the past week or so... which I CERTAINLY take no credit or blame for at all, which are more remote from me than Donald Trump is. Yet all of us are connected at some level, and there are resonances which a proper Watcher (ala Yeshua's call) naturally looks at. 

There is an analogy between some of these resonance effects and the phase change or neuropercolation emergent phenomena in brains which Freeman and Kozma have written about (at times also in collaboration with Yeshua).

I am reminded of a little scene in the New Testament, where, roughly, someone asks Jesus "Why do you always use parables or metaphors? Why don't you speak explicitly and plainly?" .. and he replies: "Because you don't yet have the required concepts or terms to allow more explicit prose statements explaining what is going on. But don't worry. There will come a time in the future, when the spirit of truth comes to the earth, when it will be possible to state such things in more explicit terms..." That has often helped my morale, and I certainly see the scientific method (as in www.werbos.com/Mind_in_Time.pdf) as a manifestation of the spirit of truth making it possible to be more explicit about that which connects us all in the noosphere and beyond. But watching the struggle for the US presidency this year (including both the elections and the preparations to inject a third candidate post election), I really worry about what is happening to the spirit of truth in the United States, and about whether we will even maintain the level of consciousness and promise we had back at the time of Washington and Jefferson, let alone the next stage we need to survive the objective challenges before us.

Why this Spenglerian kind of pattern here?

One major factor is the way that "segregation academies" set up to avoid desegregation suddenly put millions of young Americans into situations which did not live up to the requisites Tom Jefferson spelled out required to maintain what he and Washington and Betsy Ross and others created. (It was so sad they didn't pick her as the woman for US currency. But how much real US history do they know?)

But there are other factors, of course, ranging from transient fluctuations in some flows of money, to the deep schism about science and religion, to lack of adequate, sustainable platform or foundation for deployment of IT.
All of these factors are part of the objective challenges we need to address, and yet also part of the challenge of maintaining a high enough mental level to be able to address them! Irrational hot buttons and tabus (like the folks who would go hysterical if I were even to say hello to Jerry Tian?) ... that example may not be earthshattering, but taken collectively the tabus act like injecting formaldehyde into a brain. 

Best of luck...     

By the way, this is the second thing I added to this morning, based on overnight feedback. The other was a journal entry on quantum time-delayed eraser... now put to bed. Time for me to go back and learn some basics about quantum ghost imaging. Since Yeshua is much more fluent in Spanish than I am (let alone his native language Aramaic), his upgrade was important above, but I would have asked for more iterations if 
the context warranted. What context demands right now is a mix of little things and ghost imaging.






Life threatening risks from misuse of AI, terminators, etc.

One of the folks on an expert list specializing on computational intelligence posted:
Paul’s comment resonates well with my personal view against the popular (non-expert) view of E. Musk, S. Hawking, etc… that soon we need to worry about the AI overlords!!! (by watching too many Terminator sequels!)

Good morning,...!

I am sorry if I gave a one-sided picture, and did not say enough about why I worry even more than Musk and Hawking do about misuse of AI and of IT in general. Having gotten very deep into some of these issues, I worry more and more about the level of probability that the human species will become extinct well before its time (before 10,000 AD or much sooner). Misuse of IT is on my short list of grave and urgent concerns which could lead to extinction, though it is not at the top of the list; misuse of nuclear technology and little-known dimensions of climate change are. (Credible friends also  warn me not to underestimate potential for fatal misuse of some bio technologies.)

Obama has suggested a US government policy which is basically "wait and see":

But competing visions of IT are already fighting it out both in the market and (more seriously) in heavy-handed political spheres which can short-circuit the market. Some of the greatest risks come from overuse and overempowerment of technologies which pretend to be intelligent but are not (if we use the word "intelligence" in the traditional way, unlike PR salesmen who label almost anything narcissistic as "smart"). The situation is so grim that I went through a lot of groping and soul searching when they asked me to give the keynote talk at the IEEE CIS Winter School on Big Data in Computational Intelligence; "what can be said of a positive nature to the next generation? Is there ANY active path forward which does not make life worse and riskier in the end?" There is, but it requires more intelligence and will than I see in any of the political or corporate forces now active in that space; I posted links to the abstract and the talk atwww.werbos.com/Mind.htm ("under "added in 2016" near the top). 

NATO recently pressed me for more detail, and so I have a book chapter in process on some of these issues in the NATO series, posted at www.werbos.com/NATO_terrorism.pdf
======================

I have run across many groups of people vigorously feeding into all three transition teams -- Clinton, Trump
and... imperial or Trajan (planning for the transition after they get rid of Clinton). It's an important dialogue, though I find it a bit overwhelming in some ways; my response this AM to one thread of that:

--------------------------------
I have to admit that some of these posts have strengthened the emotional response which says that we are going to hell regardless of who gets elected. Earlier, it seemed (at first, on a superficial read) someone posted: "Now let us be truly progressive. Let us go from 'a chicken in every pot to a chip in every brain." Knowing a bit about chips and about brains, my emotional response was: "If that's progressive, maybe we should think twice about the possibility of instead electing someone who  would only give us a rerun of the Great Depression of the 30's  and the resulting world war (this time nuclear)."  

But ..'s position on the federal reserve is actually much more clearly aligned with the great and complex historical hermeneutics of Trump and of the Koch movement -- not the Clinton transition planning at all. Lots of nice words, but no real understanding of how money supply and interest rates work, even to a first approximation. 

For a quick first approximation see:


(Having built econometric models which actually worked on real data, better than any of their predecessors in the sectors I studied, I do know at least the basics, but 
full competence in financial policy requires another level beyond that.)

Trump has argued that present policies and structures are getting us inexorably and slowly to hell. It seems he is right. But his clear and definite formulation of monetary policy makes it clear that he would simply get us to hell more quickly and more definitely. (Reminds me of the old adage about the road to hell paved with good intentions. No substitute for hard work to understand how things really work.)

But... time for me to focus on what I personally should be doing today, which is off in the realm of quantum optics and such. No more hermeneutics.

But no, no shrinking from the responsibility to vote, to make a judgment on what is the most promising realistic outcome.
The decision for me personally is whether to just vote today for Hilary Clinton, or to wait for election day (and keep open the possibility of hell freezing over?).














Tuesday, October 25, 2016

House hearing on why many US space companies go to India for launch

I have had lots of contact with folks interested in building ties to the new leader in space, India.

GIven how hearings are being considered more and more as exercises in public relations and political action, and less as seeking truth, I doubt they will get any witnesses who dig up what is really going on. In essence, people who need the best launch technology have no choice but to link up to the best technology.

Consider for example: what will it do to the US military if we force our people to pay ten times as much money per kg in space as what the Chinese pay, if they spend the same amount of money in space? Anyone seriously concerned with national security would never, ever allow that question to be swept under the rug! Even giving communications in space to other nations, through misguided restrictions, would be a major blow to US national security!!

Who is responsible for this horrible situation? I doubt they will invite witnesses honest and knowledgeable enough to point the finger to the key node where the key decisions were made: to Senator Shelby and to Lamar Smith (following his lead)!! (Though they in turn may have been guilty of following guidance from others.) For example, the decision to order NASA to use old Apollo style technology, while India invested in next generation reusable RLV technology. But also the firing of James Armor just two weeks after the time when, as head of NSSO, he ordered DOD to fill the hole. Also the cancellation ("restructuring") of the original version of Mitchell Clapp's Global REach ALASA program at DARPA, replacing it by a Lockheed promise which led to melting and explosion at Mach 8-10 of their politically connected answer to a DARPA project which would have preserved our lead. When the Marshall Institute really looked out for US national security, and tried to get action... they were "restructured" and ordered to get out of everything but climate denial. And yes, our own Tom Tierney acted pretty firmly to make sure IEEE wuld not save the day, and that the folks who truncated the US would have their goals totally fulfilled. 

I doubt that the Indians are to blame.  Trade restrictions certainly would not begin to solve the problem; they would only force migration of additional industries and technologies overseas.

Sunday, October 23, 2016

minor election watch -- please forgive gross informality

The Donald Trump assumption dream phenomenon has continued... enough that part of me regrets
his likely soon absence from the election, and logic still points rather clearly another way.

He is now talking about "draining the swamp." I was bemused how that phrase showed up a day or two after I used it at a major anniversary meeting of a local Quaker school.. and if he had focused effectively on THAT theme months ago, he might even have had a chance.

As he goes past Hillary and CNN to blame bankers and women ... the jokester archetype is asking how soon he will start blaming space aliens.

Lots of women have lost sympathy for him as they hear specifics of his approach to women, and empathize with what it feels like to be on the receiving end of that. Yet... Hillary's main strategy this month has been simply to drive him nuts, like certain national security people who believe in pushing people past the edge of chaos. How many males sympathize with the pain of a woman really trying hard, being really focused and effective in simply driving them nuts (and not in a friendly way) for its own sake? Freud had some words for that..

But it has been effective. The latest assumption data suggests Trump starting to acquire new clinical symptoms of an extreme type, seeing a couple of his key staffers not even as human beings any more. And those women as some kind of monster eating him alive. Is that just a passing phenomenon, or will there be long-term damage of some kind? Who knows?

But I do hope Hillary will not drive Putin crazy in the same way. Being a mule for Putin's game plan of the week would have many hazards, but simply driving him crazy is not optimal either. Certainly not an easy job. At this point, Arizona is now the only race where I really hope the Republican will win, where it will not be good even for Hillary for him to lose.

Friday, October 21, 2016

Today's big cyberattack looks like Anonymous

There has been a lot of news this month about cyberattacks on US elections ascribed to Russia.
But today, the "huge" maxed out denial of service attack on Amazon, twitter, netflix and others
does not look like Russia to me, for several reasons.

One: if Russia maxed out against us, I would tend to expect much more damage. For several weeks,
we have been in a situation where really major state actors now have the ability to knowck the US back to the stone age.  See my new book chapter in press (NATO ASI, IOS, workshop on predetection of terrorism):

www.werbos.com/NATO_terrorism.pdf

When Ecuador cut off Assange's links, after his gross attacks on democracy, it is only natural that his people did the worst they could... which is as nothing compared to the real new risks we are facing.

Even before I presented that paper, I did send some technical details quietly to folks in a position to close the hole. They informed me that they were moving ahead to patch the holes, in a way that would eliminate the clear and present danger. But a group I sometimes refer to as "the gestapo" and sometimes as "Magog" put a stop to that, and the key guy is dead. Should I say more?
Well, I have at least some meager sense of self-preservation.

Too bad Hillary doesn't begin to know what has happened while Obama was playing golf, evenb though it hits her very directly. What would Trump do? Make America great, or just make a deal and sell it out? For now... it seems he is even more oblivious than Obama was.

But... I do not intend to follow those threads. Quantum physics or spirit, that's what seems to be on the table next...

Best of luck. We all need it.

Sunday, October 16, 2016

Musing about muses and the election

Please forgive, but this will be very, very casual. In an hour, we go to a local event. Yesterday at 3PM Luda and I returned from Chile and Peru, where many many complex and important issues were discussed in some detail. But I do feel called to mention a few scattered thoughts, particularly related to the election. In general, elections are a very essential ritual in our lives, of importance both practical and spiritual; simply missing an election, or not tracking it at all, is like skipping school.

Still, one of the great pleasures of being in Peru and Chile since September 30 was not to have to experience the perpetual ... psychosis?... of what we see in CNN these days. (Fox is worse, but we almost never turn it on.)

Before leaving, on this obscure blog, I noted: (1) there is a strange resonance between what I see myself in assumption dreams and Trump; (2) I made up my own (very cautious) mind to vote for Hillary based on the decisive issue of interest rates and world economic depression; and (3) were Hillary like Trump, she would have proposed a drug test (more details in that post). Now today I hear that Trump is saying that world bankers are behind the drop in his polls shortly after that time, and HE is proposing drug tests for both candidates. Is this the real world, or is there such a thing?

I am often reminded of a short scifi novel, Muse of Fire, by Dan Simmons, who, like Orson Scott Card, demonstrates real psychic/spiritual inspiration/input-sensitivity. When I first saw that novel, I thought: This is a blatant attempt to steal the English-class token sci fi market away from The Martian Chronicles. Blatant appeal to high school English teachers, with all the Shakespeare. But even so, it is thoughtful on many levels, and conveys a strong image of how our real lives seem to play out like the stories we absorb, to a much greater extent than the WYSIWIG naive view of life would lead us to expect.  And so, when the larger pattern of life seems to be less than what we would really want (as in the current election?), the question arises: can we change the channel? And, what stories are we playing out, unknowing?

In the past two weeks, away from the depressing psychodramas here in the US, the two scifi stories most in the back of my mind were: (1) yes, again, Atlas Shrugged, and (2) Stapleton's classic, The First and Last Men. (By the way, Crosby Stills and Nash as also playing in the background.) In the past, I often thought about the core themes of Atlas Shrugged (not the silly Fox News commercials),
where a truly creative guy gets a new engine going and uses the proceeds to fund a much more dramatic new technology; in actuality (see www.werbos.com/Atacama.pdf), I have tried to get
a very important new engine up and into production, working with folks in Michigan a lot like the ones Ayn Rand talked about, and if it ever really worked, I do have a line into new technology just as important and amazing as what she portrayed. But alas, it is not so easy! (Nor is any one else on earth on this particular turf!    If only Trump were more interested in those kinds of things than in drug tests!) But this week, I remembered the less pleasant scene where a smart guy gets into a big investment involving the mines in South America, and that is exactly what I was doing in the past two weeks! ECONOMICALLY, it was a great investment, but what if an unstable government nationalizes it? (Still, I don't see such insanity in Chile, Brazil or Argentina right now; more precisely, Argentina and Brazil need the electricity in any case, and Chile would control it.) The core of it would be electricity going from Atacama to Itaipu in the day, and from Itaipu to Atacama in the night to support the 24/7 operations of the mining industry whose center Luda and I visited.

I was also reminded of the scene in Atlas Shrugged where a new President takes office, a lot more brutal in his manners, even to the point of carrying a gun... and the economy falls apart.

And Stapleton ... as in precognitive dreams, his novel misentangled a few key elements, but the precognitive aspect was really very striking. Back when I read it, reviewers said "He intuitively told us about nuclear fusion, with a few elements mixed up,   long before scientists knew about it." Well, it turns out that the advanced technology he depicted was actually a lot closer to a later generation,
complete conversion of matter to energy (CCM), which just a very few scientists (see chapter 11 of the book Topological Solitons) begin to understand. And... in the story, a Chinese scientist  uses it to defend Europe from an aggressive new US policy... Further on, the continuation of economic and cultural growth  on earth starts depend on a new center in South America, where among other things
"a perpetual child" plays a central role in the new culture. That has some resonance with the cultural themes starting there now, which I may say more about later.

In telling local Quakers about this, I mentioned how Luda and I had deep contact with three
core themes in the area -- capitalism, Catholicism, and the Andean beliefs about pachamama, pachatata, and "Apus" (mountains as spiritual foci). Combining the best of the three offers a lot of potential. Each is worthy of much more than one quick blog post. In Peru, I resolved to mainly just follow Luda, so when she wanted to tour the big convent (Santa Catarina) in Arequipa, OK, I did my best to be a good trooper following along. But in the rooms for/of Saint Ana de Los Angeles, I felt a sudden jolt on my spine as I read part of her story and the words came "es mi madre!" It is ever so amusing and unbelievable when a boy thinks his mother is or was a saint..., but really, I was ever so lucky that way as a child. And after those words in the ether, further flows of energy and connection were inevitable. It is an easy google to find, for example, the wikipedia article on her, which I emailed to my brother yesterday.

Thinking more... the church at least claims to have very solid evidence that she did amazing things, much more so that the many other earnest people in that convent dedicating their lives to spiritual advancement. Why did she do so much better? Apart from sincerity and focus (ability to get really deep into a goal), her choice of goal was a bit different. While others followed the Loyola path depicted in images in an entry room, dedicated to personal "eternal life" (not unlike the apotheosis goal of the famous Inca Juanita whose museum we also visited), she adopted the goal of "rescuing souls from purgatory," a goal well beyond herself requiring lots of  development. But... in general, the elitist image of development only of those in cloisters without deep enough understanding of the spiritual potential of folks in normal married life... well, it was great power and a great step forward, but a kind of double karma.  Her goal echoes Matheson's wonderful easy-to-read short novel, What Dreams May Come...

But now I must run to a Quaker school ...

=====================

Next day: the question has come to my attention: am I so sure that a new Great Depression (as if Trump is elected and sticks to policies he has promised) is the worst outcome here? Some say we need periodic depressions and wars, to purge and purify corruption and ossification. In a nuclear world, that may be too high a price (i.e. species extinction). But news of enthusiastic manic people
planning the next progressive steps forward sound as if they might possibly be even worse than global depression.  In a clinical sense, I believe these people show us how "euphoric experience" can be just as bad as the traumatic experience Freud talks about in causing mental aberration and gross irrationality. The Martian fever, the least of it, would eliminate realistic possibilities for
effective space development. Talk of a chip in every brain (a real satire on promising a chicken in every pot) is even worse. But... now I must shift to more scientific brain stuff, a deadline coming soon.

If one WANTED Trump to be elected, one might suggest publicity for what folks are promising with a chip in every brain... and maybe asking Rubio for a nice down-to-earth place to have ceviche in Florida!