What is an effective grand
strategy when the variable you really want to maximize (or the target you want
to achieve) is hard to measure, and even harder to predict?
In many investment boards,
every discussion of every possible project or activity comes down to the
question: “What would the impact be on the bottom line?” Except in family
matters, I have always been the same
way, essentially no-nonsense and strategic, except that I care about two
ultimate bottom lines which I will never forget:
(1) What is the probability
that there will be no living human bodies left anywhere in the universe in a relatively
short time, such as 10,000 years from now or less?
(2) What is the impact on the
growth and strength of that “half” of us which is not limited to the mundane
human body, the part we often refer to as “soul”?
(People ask: are you a real
expert on this? Well, by some definitions of “expert,” no one is an expert on
anything but the tiniest minutia; people who criticize big picture thinking
should at least read the introduction of Toynbee’s great book on civilization
on trial, and what it says about misguided ways of thinking blinding us to
questions we need to address. No one on earth knows all aspects of these
questions, but I certainly have unique backgrounds in some key parts of these
two pictures and, above all, have revisited the questions again and again for
many years.)
In essence, goal (1)
expresses the most enduring part of the basic feelings we inherit from our
genes, from our human DNA, from the “beast” half of us, which I for one am
simply not ready to renounce (especially in the presence of a woman like my
wife). Goal (2) expresses the part we get from the noosphere, from being half “angel,”
half part of something much larger.
When I talk very crudely
about “God supporting the human potential movement as such above all organized
religious organizations,” I am referring to the priority of goal (2) both to
our noosphere and to its supporters, including what Yeshua referred to as “Our
father in heaven.” Organized religions sometimes assist goal (2), and sometimes
are as bad as folks like Ayn Rand and the darkest oligarchs as threats to goal
(2) and to the very survival of our local noosphere. (Survival? Yes, survival
of all the souls of earth. Even among whales, not all babies live to adulthood,
and there are diseases and parasites which threaten the very lives of their
hosts.) In truth, my “frivolous” suggestion of using hot dogs and beer, or
porto and pork pate, as a form of “extreme vetting” for immigrants was grounded
in fundamental issues of sanity, related to the distinction between which
manifestations of religion actually support the soul and which try to lock it
up in prison and damage it (just as tying up the feet of women destroyed those
feet at times in ancient China).
But... how can we address
goal (2) itself more effectively, exactly what “God would really support”? The
founding principles of the US were a big step forward on that, back in the day
when the US began, when folks like George Washington and his Scottish Rite
Freemasons, and like the Free Quakers, and even like my own wild sea-going
Irish ancestors (half the family) worked hard to build a new situation to
liberate them all. Back when the US Constitution was understood as giving
rights to “people” defined as human beings, it too was closer to “what God will
support” for the general population than any of the religious codes of law ever
before in the world – though corrupting influences from money in politics and
money in religion have caused a lot of erosion since then, and also caused a
lot of the disorder we see all over the world today, not just the US.
One big step forward would be
to follow up more effectively on something we (of Adelphi Friends Meeting at
the time) did in starting Friends Community School: set up a school really focused on the bottom
line of developing and strengthening body and brain and soul of all students.
Not easy to do or to define, but doing the wrong things because they are easy
has already been tried elsewhere. Much more could be done. By the way, the curriculum on conflict resolution has been great not only for what it teaches, but for the effectiveness of the whole rest of the curriculum!
(I have heard this not only from the school but from friends at the forefront of education research.)
But what about adults?
In fact, there is a major new
current in management science, in serious futuristic economics and in policy
circles asking ever more urgently: “What can we do to better support the
workforce of the future? And how can we foster real innovation and creativity
in a new kind of economy?” I have had a chance to observe extremely serious new
professional studies from the International Labor Organization and from the
Millennium Project (MP, or themp), collecting hundreds of research reports,
which lead to very scary questions about the world 20 years from now. In the
last main study of the MP, even the most conservative scenario/viewpoint
predicts a 70% drop in “jobs.” Automation is no longer just a possibility for
the future. It is not a joke that Trump’s nominee for secretary of labor says “We
will bring your jobs back from China, and give them to robots.” (Not his exact
words, but clearly what he has been saying.) There is another discussion group centered in
key industry stakeholders... and everyone is deeply worried and puzzled. This
is not a case where we can forget it and watch it just go away.
One theory is “everyone
should be an entrepreneur.” Folks who struggle to figure out... even basic
things... are supposed to maintain a whole new life like that?
Whether people become
entrepreneurs or not, clearly we need much stronger efforts to advance the
potential of human adults, as well as children, on a much more urgent basis
than before... whether to prepare them for money-based contract labor or more
natural human network connections (which used to be a bigger part of US life
before certain folks started turning the screws!!)... but HOW?
One of the four groups I talk
to about this, grounded in management consulting practices, has been excited by
a new management/creativity course growing in popularity in Silicon Valley.
That kind of course really does have a role to play here, and looks a lot more
real than the grossly silly stuff Lamar Smith has been quietly encouraging NSF
to do (rather similar to Bo XiLai’s old use of patriotic songs to stimulate
morale, not so good for independent creativity) instead of what it used to fund
under more serious folks like Joe Bordogna. Part of the new management
consulting practices focus on helping clients develop better “maps” of their
environment, crucial to falling into inertia and low creativity, which is all
too common lately in large enterprises.
In the discussion, I noted:
1. There are no simple silver
bullets here. Developing real management competence is a lot like learning the
complex things Piaget talks about, a matter of a whole lot of things. In
addition to the kinds of courses they discussed, rooted in deeper experience
and psychology than the Bo Xilai/Lamar Smith nonsense, other resources need to
be integrated in. One of my favorites would be the study by Valliant on Harvard
graduates, bringing out what kind of psychological factors go with life success
versus failure in their lifetimes. (Of course, this is not a study of the needs
of village drunks or vagabonds.) Another would be what I learned from running
NSF panels for almost 30 years, about how to arrange really deep dialogue,
engaging both leading experts and relative novices, and really moving all of us
forwards – especially important to getting closer to reality in a wide variety
of economic areas which the amateurs on the Hill screw up with great
regularity. (My analogy to Piaget is doubly good – insofar as it points to the
need to always keep improving in such a complex terrain without simple silver
bullets.)
2. But even so, there are a
few universals. (Piaget, by comparison, mentions how there is a deeper level of
studying learning, which he calls “accommodation and assimilation,” which
elicits more universal principles. My paper a month ago in Frontiers in Systems
Neuroscience is a watershed on exactly that subject, reviewing many other new
results.) Among these are:
-- THE
MIRROR. The wonderful course we discussed includes people looking at themselves
in the moods they get into, especially as they try to handle frustration.
Looking at ourselves in the mirror is a truly universal basic principle we need
to learn how to exercise again and again, at many levels. There is a relation
of course to “mirror neurons,” an important fundamental discovery of modern systems
neuroscience. Even monkeys have them. Even
mice can learn from their mistakes, from their own experience... but a
monkey naturally will look at another monkey doing the wrong thing and suffering,
and can learn not to commit that mistake . Even though monkeys already have
mirror neurons, we as humans have an ability to learn to be self-conscious
about using this very basic faculty. It is analogous to an athlete learning the
basic set of muscles he or she has to work with, important even as he or she
work on a much more complex set of exercises.
(And yes, the best forms of
sports medicine help provide that kind of capability, important to strengthening
of the body, even in K-12 schools!)
-- MAPPING the possibilities.
Some humans in management are so haphazard and fuzzy that they could even learn
by considering the example of the reptile (lizard, dinosaur, turtle). (Is this
like Shao Lin King Fu, for the mind? For brain and soul both? “Hey, cricket,
look really deep at that raptor.”) The reptile has one three-level cortex which
it uses to map out the space of the environment it lives in, and other to
organize time into chunks – as in plans, decisions, etc. (Does anyone suspect a
relation to something they read in AI? The citations in my new paper point to
more advanced versions of exactly that math and AI.) It is like voting fro
Reagan over Carter: “See how Decisive our new leader can be.” Yes, decisiveness
is an important skill... but not by itself the highest skill. Higher than the
dinosaur is the great elevated consciousness and intelligence of the Mouse. In
the mouse, those two three-level cortices merge (in most but not all of their
area), to support a new level of intelligence which proceeds by mapping THE
SPACE OF POSSIBILITIES. In a way, a kind of 4D map.
Exploring possibilities is
the foundation of the much higher level of creativity of the mouse over the
reptile.
By consciously using and
advancing that natural capability of the mouse brain, we can enhance our own
natural creativity far beyond those singsong people living only “in the now.”
(It’s great to be ABLE to live in the now... to focus consciousness on the
present moment.. and then focus it elsewhere... and thereby learn to consciously
and strategically control the whole focus of the whole brain and soul.)
By the way, what special
hardwired advantage do humans possess, even above all primates, if any?
(My old book, “The Roots of
Backpropagation”, has a chapter on that!) In addition to mirror neurons, we
have a natural ability to share
experience we did not see directly. That can come via symbolic channels like
words... or, in my view, via channels like assumption dreams, which the
psychiatrist Eisenbud is said to have written about long before my 2012 paper
in Neural Networks.
In essence, better use of “the
mirror” is one of the foundations of sanity or zhengqi, discussed in
www.werbos.com/Mind_in_Time.pdf.
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