Much as I respect McCain and
CNN, when they are within their spheres of competence, I am aghast at how
seriously and dangerously they both are departing from reality this morning. The effort to create war between US and Russia
(to the benefit of the Moslem Brotherhood and all those who get funded and/or
guided by them around the world) is an extremely serious matter, and if we fail
to think twice we are all in deep trouble – all us humans.
First key point: McCain says that Russia has performed
an act of war, and that the US CANNOT just sit back and let anyone get away
with that.
I understand where he is
coming with that. I took a graduate course on formal deterrence and game theory
under Schelling, and one of Hermann Kahn’s seminars, so I fully understand
where is coming from. But we live in a new world now,
and, above all, the borders in cyberspace have simply not
been well-defined by anyone. We do need such borders, as a matter of
urgency; that is why the technical measures proposed in www.werbos.com/NATO_terrorism.pdf
are objectively a whole lot more urgent and important than all the hacking and
terrorism incidents of the past year. But when there are no borders yet... as
Clapper very rightly noted in the hearing, we who live in a glass house should
not throw stones.
The idea that we should treat
this NOW as a classic act of war... reminds me of how visibly hard it was for
Mike Rogers of Cybercon to contain his laughter when... one senator... asked
for jobs for some of her people, in effect, to show up in foremen’s suits
around the Pentagon, to create a cordon to keep out malware. It was so funny!
(OK, she was not quite so crazy as that... but for the objective realities of
cyberwarfare today... it note just how well he contained his laughter and
played her along.)
It is simply not act of war
when we don’t have borders. Yes, we need to establish borders... and no it is
not enough to build a “Maginot Line”... but we can and urgently need to
strengthen that kind of border before we get too far into things which work only
after such borders are established.
The CNN commentator attacking
Trump was also very deeply troubling to me. I do not care about insults to
Trump the way he might himself... but I can see how some OTHER people, reacting
just as emotionally to what they
perceive as insults to them, can also be extremely dangerous. In fact, calm and
suave as they may imagine themselves to be, calmly and suaving asking for a
return to Cold War and even asking for immediate hostile actions against Russia
instantly and urgently...
well, that’s actually more
dangerous than anything Trump has called for (yet). (Sadly, Kim of the North
might yet get hTrump’s goat on a major scale.... though I wish he could just
invite Kim to a Hefner bash instead, or, failing that, to see who else might be
ready to just annex North Korea with full US support. Still, even nuclear war
with North Korea would be less dangerous that war with Russia to the benefit of
Moslem Brotherhood!)
I wondered what kind of
mental hospital we are in when people are lying dead in Fort Lauderdale and
another giant sexual assault riot has broken out in the German world, and the
CNN commentator tells us to ignore all these irrelevant distraction and get to
the really urgently need to attack Russia. Just what does he think we would
gain by doing more than what Obama has already done, by ratcheting things up
ever so many levels?
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OK, that’s the urgent part.
Just the tip of one of about ten icebergs I could see on the watch this early
morning....
Should I add any more?
Well, in my last post I
admitted that I personally (having no access at all to any material classified
anywhere on earth)
could not say for sure that
Putin authorized the DNC hacks. My emotional tendency is to expect that he did,
but that is just a kind of normal human tendency, in part because the story is
so plausible. How could I have any doubt?
Well, I have had a lifetime
of learning to doubt. Maybe it started with Howard Raiffa’s class, where he
reported survey results showing that what the elites call “impossible” occurs
about one-third of the time. (That’s an important story, but I will hold back
on details for now.) Life tells me that those heads of agencies (like Clapper)
who looked seriously and professionally at the evidence would tend to have a
bias here – a bias of not wanting to think hard about those folks WITHIN the US
who might well have motive, opportunity and ability to more or less frame
Putin. I am NOT asserting that
that is a valid explanation,
but, without having data myself to disconfirm it, I do not have such a firm
basis for ruling it out.
Certainly I do know that
there are folks who want war with Russia and Iran as soon as possible (before
the event they fear of Trump/Putin alliance), just as much as they wanted war
with Iraq under Cheney. And many of the same networks and people still exist,
even though the vast majority of people in any of the US intelligence agencies
would much prefer to avoid such unconstitutional “informal” networks.
But still, no one should
imagine that a full understanding between Putin and Trump would be a child’s
moonlight romance
for either one of them. In a
way, it reminds me of the article I read in Psychology Today decades ago about
divorces between firstborns, and of how Luda and I need to exercise our full intelligence
to do justice to our different complex thoughts and strategic assessments. From
Putin, Trump must accept some harsh realities about the thousands of years
history of the Middle East. (Hey guys, I read Eisenstadt, not just Spengler and
Toynbee and the Russian stuff. It’s not a game of musical chairs. And I did
just review Kay’s new book, on one third of the story.) From Trump.. Putin must
accept a more mutual face-saving and forward-looking approach to Ukraine proper
(not including Crimea). And there are those IT issues I mentioned above. That really ought to be a god starting
foundation.
================
Meanwhile, what of that guy
who said he heard voices in his head asking him to watch ISIS propaganda?
If we take that seriously AT
ALL, will they lock us up? Just yesterday, I read a review of Eisenbud’s
publications on what I have called assumption dreams. The review admitted that
Freud himself strongly argued that so-called “paranormal”
phenomena are real, a reality
inescapable to folks who really open up and deeply track clinical or deep human
psychological experience. “But that can’t
be” say the clerks who now classify socially incongruous laughter or tears as a
syndrome to be removed by drugs. I am now reading, the Dark Forest, the sequel
to “Three Body Problem” (Chinese sci fi recommended, by Zuckenberg, Obama and
Luda.) I do’t agree with everything it says... but I do agree that if we work
hard to become a nation of clerks controlled by IT puppetmasters, we will be
doomed...... and yet that some of us must still have some cautions in what we
say, especially when some Congresspeople call for a new “fake news bureau” (aka
censorship) to keep out all views they disagree with.)
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