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Saving the World

Monday, August 12, 2019

Synthesis of hard core science and spiritual reality


This paper is scheduled for publication in Cosmos and History, Dec. 2019, and is now available only here and in the Foundations of Mind collection. In essence, it is a sequel to my paper in Activitas Nervosa Superior this year, outlining a new viewpoint on how to reconcile real hard core science and real spiritual experience.



The Phenomenon of Man Revised: Evolution and I.T. Versus Extinction In the Years To Come

Dr. Paul J. Werbos
National Science Foundation, retired
U. of Memphis, Dept. of Mathematics
5304 1st Pl N, Arlington, Va 22203
paul.werbos@gmail.com

keywords: noosphere, machine learning, soul, psi, backpropagation, sociobiology, internet of things, human-centric internet, futures, consciousness, cycles of history, evolution


The Phenomenon of Man, Revised: Evolution and I.T. Versus Extinction In the Years To Come  

© Paul J. Werbos May 25, 2019
In press, Cosmos and History

Abstract

The Phenomenon of Man, by Teilhard de Chardin, was a great effort to truly unify hard core science and charismatic spirit, with practical implications for better understanding the dynamics of history and period we are now entering. This paper presents the noosphere species theory -- a radical revision of de Chardin's theory, as is necessary to account for what we now know about natural selection, about the mathematics of intelligent systems and about the great ocean of dark matter and energy connecting the galaxies of our cosmos. The noosphere species theory still emphasizes the possibility and need for a growth in spiritual collective intelligence, but it offers more details on how this growth could be supported and accelerated, and it faces up to the reality that our particular noosphere might or might not survive the difficult challenges arising now. And yet, it accepts that we are not alone.





1. Background and Fundamental Principles of a New Vision

1.1.The Core Vision of Teilhard de Chardin

In his seminal manifesto, The Phenomenon of Man [1], Teilhard de Chardin proposed a new vision of humanity and of our destiny, intended to reconcile the core principles of his Catholic beliefs with the core facts proven by science. He fully embraced the fact of biological evolution over billions of years, but proposed that this process of evolution includes the earth as a whole, the “noosphere”, as previously described by Vernadsky [2]. He proposed that the omega point prophesied in the Bible refers to that time in the future when we, components or cells of that larger noosphere, become more united, and reach out like a single organism to the larger cosmos. The leading science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke wrote a graphic novel [3] describing what that omega point transition might feel like to the people experiencing it.

De Chardin himself explained more concretely what his new vision implied for meditation, spirit and the experience of life [4]. A certain young John F. Kennedy was deeply inspired by this vision, very popular at that time, and it was a major motivator underneath all the excuses he used to advance his vision of reaching out further into outer space. I do not have citations for this last point, but it is based on many conversations with many of the people close to that history, ranging from the janitor he spoke to regularly at Harvard to Barbara Marx Hubbard [5], a follower of de Chardin very active in the space and futures movements, and a mentor to Jerry Glenn, founder of the Millennium Project [6].

1.2.Problems and Corrections: A Revised Version of the Vision

De Chardin’s vision did not become so viral or so universal as he would have hoped, for two reasons.

1.2.1.      Political Barriers and Need to Overcome Them

First, there are many very powerful thought leaders who simply are not interested in reconciling science and spirit or science and religion. They have a firm commitment to either one or the other, insist on holding on to every last comma of some received system of beliefs, and have little tolerance for cognitive dissonance or novelty. They see the political benefits of painting the other side as a strawman, citing the most extreme spokesmen for the other side, whipping up their base as a path to power. But for that 70% or so of humanity which believes that science and spirit both hold fundamental truths important to their life and to their destiny, it really is important to try to reconcile the two with a new unifying vision, just as de Chardin tried to do. Furthermore, from a practical point of view, there is a real danger of nuclear war eradicating the human species, if the global dialogue becomes dominated by one group which plans to solve the conflict by eradicating religion, and another group which tries to protect itself from the first group by imposing a stifling fundamentalist theocracy on everyone on earth.

This paper is addressed to that 70% or so in the middle. Of course, the  number 70% is just a guesstimate; it is based in part on a recent poll of the US on the subject of evolution [7], and in part on earlier work by Greeley and McCready [8]. I suspect that the number would be lower in Europe but higher in the rest of the world. This paper builds upon the foundation of another recent paper which explains why and how I personally believe that the truth does lie in the middle here [9].

1.2.2 Logical Gaps and How to Fill Them: A New, Revised Vision

Unfortunately, there are also several logical problems with de Chardin’s vision which kept it from growing in popularity among those of us in the middle. This paper proposes a new vision of who we are as humans and of our possible destinies (we do have some choice here!), similar to the vision of de Chardin, but revised in a few fundamental ways.

1.2.2.1 Dark Matter: the Physical Substrate Permitting Spiritual Experience or Psi

The first problem with de Chardin’s formulation is that he does not offer a possible physical scientific basis for the flow of spiritual energy (like charisma, qi, mana) which is central to all authentic spiritual traditions around the world, even though he wrote about his deep personal acquaintance with that energy [4]. What mainstream science really knows about the atoms which make up our bodies, and the quantum electrodynamics (QED) which describes most of their interactions [9], simply cannot explain anything like the spiritual experiences common to all major cultures on earth [10] or even that small subset verified in the laboratory [10,11].

But now, in the twenty-first century, science is ever more confident that our cosmos is made up of more than just atoms. We know that more than 90% of the cosmos we live in is made up of “dark matter and dark energy,” but we do not know exactly what dark matter really is. There was a time a few years ago when many of us thought we might explain the strange movements of galaxies by a new theory of gravity like Moffatt’s, without dark matter. but many groups have been able to map the distribution of dark matter, by “seeing” it by gravitational lensing effects [12].















Figure 1. One of many recent maps of dark matter (from http://www.illustris-project.org/)

In order to be consistent with the best mainstream version of quantum theory known to science today [9], or with new efforts to find a more realistic foundation underlying quantum theory, while still accepting psi or spiritual energy, we have almost no choice but to hold that “dark matter” is the physical substrate which makes psi and authentic spiritual experience possible. We may debate whether dark matter is made up of fields, or of particles, or of a mix of the two, but in any case it is what Aristotle would call the “substance” underlying higher forms like spirit, and all aspects of mind or consciousness which do not use atoms as their substance.

Of course, we cannot totally rule out the possibility that quantum theory and Einsteinian realism are both false, but until and unless we have evidence which contradicts them and which also gives us an alternative clear and coherent enough to live by, a ruthlessly rational and sane person in the  middle will act on the assumption that the dark matter hypothesis here is probably true.

The most plausible alternative hypothesis for a person in the middle would be that the Lagrange-Euler equations of physics have strange properties far beyond what science understands as yet. Could it be that psi and spiritual experience can all be explained as side effects of a kind of universal Jungian synchronicity, without the action of any minds but what is in our heads and what these equations describe? I tend to doubt it, but scientific integrity demands that we do justice to “next best” alternatives, both to the left and to the right, so that we can remain alert to any new evidence pushing us to either side.

When I discuss this dark matter hypothesis, some people ask: “Why dark matter? Why not moola pazoola or prima materia or…” It is important to remember that science does not yet know what dark matter and dark energy are in more concrete terms. If you want to call an unknown force field “moola pazoola,” that would be fine in principle, so long as you do not immediately attach a whole lot of unproven hypotheses along with it. To this day, many of the nonproductive and meaningless arguments in philosophy and religion are based on a failure to remember that the words we use are just a recent invention of human culture. The term “dark matter” is a good one to use for now, precisely because it does not use a semantic trick to sneak in unproven and unnecessary side assumptions.  It is fine that many people discuss more concrete possibilities for what dark matter might be, but the vision presented in this paper is intentionally consistent with many possibilities for those details.

1.2.2.2. The Noosphere Species Theory: It’s Not Just Earth

 Above all, modern science knows that the process of evolution by natural selection on earth [13,14,15] simply does not predict the kind of outcome which de Chardin envisioned. This paper proposes a new vision of who we are as humans, which is similar to that of de Chardin, but revised in a way which fits what we know from evolution.

In a  nutshell, the theory is that we on earth are all parts of a greater noosphere, exactly as de Chardin felt, growing towards greater unity and some kind of collective intelligence at a “spiritual level,” i.e. in our connections through the noosphere. Our noosphere is not some kind of mature god, as in some versions of the Gaia theory, but more like a child, better called Terry (for Terra, also not gender specific) than Gaia. A child whose existence is possible, under natural selection, only because of natural selection in a much larger environment – the environment depicted in Figure 1, a vast connected ocean of matter and energy criss-crossing the universe more than 10 billions years old. (How much older we do not really know.) Our noosphere is just one member of a whole species of noospheres. I have spoken about this idea in the past [12,16,17,18], but this is the first serious publication in the West.

There are two major reasons why I feel that this vision is inevitable, so long as we hold to quantum or Einsteinian realism.

First, from what we know of biological evolution, we should expect life to evolve, whenever there exists the vast kind of connected ocean of matter pulsing with free energy, as you can see in Figure 1. All but a few of the galaxies in our universe are bright dots, or nodes, in this network, and we now know that the connection to dark matter is crucial the birth of the stars themselves; more precisely, we know that those few “zombie galaxies” [12] which are not connected to the network of dark matter suffer from a dramatic lack of star formation. This evidence speaks not only to life,  but to some kind of coupling between dark matter and atomic matter, in which the dark matter side plays the dominant role.

Second, in order to explain and understand basic psi phenomena like remote viewing [10,11], let alone bilocation and prophetic dreams and such, it is not enough to have a plausible physical substrate like dark matter or anything else. There are many people who claim to have a “physical explanation” for psi based on some kind of physical substrate (in the spirit of moola pazoola), but that simply is not sufficient by itself to explain how such things could be possible. Necessary, but not sufficient.

Consider the example of remote viewing, where a person in one small place on earth somehow delivers information about another small place or person thousands of miles away. If QED by itself could explain such a thing, then technology using QED based on the best, most advanced understanding of QED should be able to replicate it in technology. I can say with some confidence that it cannot, despite many billions of dollars worth of intense effort by the most brilliant people on earth [19].

The real difficulty in building or explaining such a capability, regardless of what kind of physical substances are used, is the switching problem. How can a connection be made between two points, A and B (or Alice and Bob), so very far away from each other? It absolutely requires a highly refined switching network, not the kind of system which emerges in a random complex system like a muddy but lifeless dirty pond or a mass of uncontrolled clouds floating in the sky. Unless we imagine that some weird group of space aliens chose to install an “invisible” technical switching network or communication satellite made of dark matter, the only way this system could have emerged here is by  biological evolution. The claim, then, is that the switching function is performed by our noosphere, a vast living organism made primarily of dark matter (with some extensions to ordinary matter just as snakes sometimes grow a skin, and as human bodies contain both cells and matrix).

For many years, I tended to assume that our noosphere basically penetrates and interfaces with the entire earth. When I met a woman in Nepal active both in the Labor Party of England and in higher yoga (shades of Annie  Besant?), and she asked how to bring her two worlds closer together, I strongly urged rallies using the song “We are the Earth.” I feel a positive shiver up my spine even as a type that. (Of course, openness to that kind of feeling is very important to mundane sanity, let alone spiritual growth. Mundane sanity is what led me from hard core “materialism” to experiences beyond it in the first place [9].) However, logic suggests that our noosphere would not be limited to just our planet. Stars like our sun are also connected to dark matter, and exploration of our solar system seems unlikely to weaken our spiritual connection. So now I tend to think of us as part of the Sol noosphere, not just the one planet. I interpret the manifesto of Akhnaton declaring the sun as the One God as an attempt to channel the nervous system part of the Sol noosphere, the vast neural network in which our personal “souls,” our common ideas and archetypes all reside as subsystems.

A key aspect of this theory is that we humans are what Dante called “half beast, half angel” – a symbiotic life form, such that part of us is the system of atoms which science now understands far better than most people know, and part is dark matter. It is also what Rosicrucians have called an “Alchemical marriage.” Some marriages are good, and some are dysfunctional. Another aspect is that there exists more mature life and mind beyond our solar system, “in the heavens’ (in Figure 1!).

In the remainder of this paper, I will use the term “soul” to refer to the “angel” side of us, that part of us made primarily of dark matter, a part of the noosphere. Section 2 of this paper will give my own personal views on what this means in practical terms for us as humans, either as individuals or as agents in history.

1.2.2.3. Information Technology (IT), DNA, Money and Soul – Four Forces which Could Save Us or Kill Us

One key test of human sanity is whether we are capable of facing up to “inconvenient truths,” without hiding from them or giving up altogether. Do we give in to the common ego defense mechanism called “denial”, or do we use a more mature way of coping with unpleasant news, the kind of mechanism which leads to success more often in life than denial does [20,21]?

The original vision of de Chardin [1] basically said that the human species is destined to rise to a great and higher level of existence. Many religious dogmas became popular, even though they contradict each other in ways which should make them think twice, in part because they say what many people want to believe, that their apotheosis is guaranteed, at least if they follow certain rules.

The noosphere species theory clearly does not guarantee that the human species or any part or product of the human species will survive the challenges of this century, as they play out over the next few thousand years. It predicts that the noosphere has a “body, brain and immune system” (among others) which will play an important role, which are the product of billions of years of evolution making them far more helpful than random chance, but that does not provide a guarantee. In nature, not all little fish grow to adulthood, despite the billions of years of evolution driving them to the behavior and learning which maximize their chances. Are noospheres like fish or like bonobos, who have a better chance of survival? We don’t know, but we do know that we face very severe risks as a species, and we know that soul is only one of the underlying forces which will shape our destiny.

There have been many recent efforts to analyze more concretely what the most serious, highest probability risks are to the very existence of the human species [6,22,23]. Having studied these in some depth, I believe that the biggest four threats now, in order, are: (1) nuclear war and misuse of nuclear technology in general [24,25]; (2) extinction due to future release of H2S from the oceans, due to climate change [26,27,28,29]; (3) misuse of biotechnology; and (4) the “Terminator” scenario for AI [30], which could happen in many different ways if my own work in that field [31,32,33] is misused by people who do not understand the underlying principles.

1.2.2.3.1 DNA and Soul as Drivers of Extinction versus Survival

Unfortunately, the normal process of evolution by mundane natural selection on earth suggests relatively little hope that humans could avoid extinction by at least one of these four mechanisms. Ecosystems which seem relatively stable, after billions of years of world-spanning species being deleted, normally go unstable when large, random changes are made in the relations between organisms [14]. Many of the starry eyed visions for a new human species, using new techniques for genetic manipulation to create more beautiful people, remind me of how the trilobytes – who once ruled the earth – became extinct as a result of excessive selection for sexual attractiveness leading to a brittle catastrophe at the global, systems level. From the viewpoint of game theory, the great pastoral societies like Afghanistan which led to the rise of most human civilization [15] change dramatically when nuclear weapons are added to the game. If war is inevitable sooner or later, due to conflicts and zerosum thinking, and if nuclear capabilities are widely distributed, nuclear “kembi” will be very, very hard to avoid [24].

Furthermore, ongoing population growth [34] makes it almost inevitable that zerosum thinking will become prevalent, once again, in earth, unless there are dramatic, conscious changes in global trends. There has been a lot of wishful thinking on this subject, based on the same kind of social pressures which cause other forms of denial, but a detailed study of the literature on biology and fertility shows strong reasons to doubt the good news. The details of that literature are beyond the scope of this paper, but a few examples are in order.

In 1982, when I contributed to the OTA assessment of competing quantitative models of the future of humanity (https://ota.fas.org/reports/8212.pdf), we found that the “UN population projections” cited by so many groups trying to sell their plans for economic development were actually selected from a large set of scenarios, which the UN stressed were not forecasts, and did not include any real modelling of fertility. Research by Sally Quinn of Census and research by the World Bank got much deeper into the drivers of fertility, and found that population growth in advanced nations in recent years was slowed, not by rises in income as such, but by four key variables: (1) women’s empowerment and education; (2) availability of public health, especially the whole range of family planning; (3) urbanization; and (4) cultures which do not force women to have children. I was in fact invited to a meeting on the United Nations Fund for Population Assistance, which did study these things in great detail, and started a major push to push these four variables in order to prevent the kind of catastrophe which present trends really do predict.

These efforts can be of great value to reduce instability in the next few centuries,  but natural selection is still very much at work. Already, cultures which force more children do produce more children, producing demographic imbalances already starting to grow around the world. Some aspects of genetic selection require millions of years to have any effect, but it is well known that a mere 7 to 10 generations are enough to cause massive changes in the mix of genes already “well known’ to biology [10]; genes related to sexual behavior and aggression are certainly among those genes. Sociobiology [10] did underestimate the power of personal experience and learning to change behavior, to transcend that is in the genes; however, even the highest level of learning [35,36] in the brain is still anchored in the properties of “telos” or “happiness” specified by these genes.

The prediction, then, is that we will not live forever in a world where more intelligent and prosperous women have fewer children. The prediction is that there will be a selection for massively competent women who also have massively powerful hormones, overwhelming the social pressures. When I realized this in graduate school, I have to admit I visualized such women and wanted to meet them. That goes beyond the scope of this paper, but may help the reader in remembering what is going on here.

The current exponential growth of the human species is not so different from the growth which earlier civilizations have experienced for a few centuries [37,38] or even from the “quantum leaps” which other world-spanning new species have experienced [13]. In the past, it has always been just the first half of an “S” curve which then comes to terms, sometimes well and sometimes badly, with various types of constraints.

In touring a wide variety of island cultures in the Pacific, I have had a chance to look very closely at some of the very general types of possible paths. It started mostly with adventurous “people of the boat” from Taiwan, expanding with great hope into a new frontier, very similar in spirit to more recent European settlers of the Americas. In some areas, the culture was deeply committed to maximizing its population when it could. But in bad years (a stochastic event, mostly connected to El Nino), there was a sudden imbalance. This led to war in some cases, but more often to human sacrifice in cooperative societies (like the great Moche civilization of Peru), and to cannibalism in societies even more committed to maximizing carrying capacity and recycling.

A fascinating exception was the culture of Easter Island [39], which, contrary to self-serving European myths, was a great success in adapting to nature, devastated more by Europeans at times than by native cultures. A relatively stable native society, based on ancestor worship not unlike old Chinese culture and the culture depicted in the movie “Coco,” became unstable when the first, brief European visitors showed that a higher standard of living was possible in a prosperous and growing society. The resulting time of troubles was a monstrous experience. It is very unfortunate that anthropologists have not fully recorded the oral traditions of the competing tribes which found a way out. The way out was a strong system of maximally honorable competition, the Bird Man competition, which I suspect was inspired in part by the esoteric secret society of navigators based on Raiatea which I also had a chance to visit, which also had a serious spiritual input. Honorable competition provided a way to allocate resources, and limit population growth to what is sustainable, and what makes people happy and fosters more authentic spiritual growth. It provides a kind of ecosystem in which natural selection does not force fatal and degrading warfare.

The first challenge here in reality is how to avoid extremes like dishonorable competition leading to unsustainable levels of war and  violence and degrading of the spirit, or like illusions that everyone can have all they want without constraint and without some kind of selection mechanism.  The second big challenge is to converge on some kind of sustainable social contract [40,41,42] which can maintain honorable competition based on natural types of selection mechanism which do not cause us to degenerate into silly outcomes like those of the trilobytes or like the dangerous, brittle speciation of caste systems or early Carib and Arawak.

To the extent that we try to channel the will of the noosphere, the challenge is to provide societies which really support a high level of collective intelligence and personal spiritual growth, which requires a high level of education, diversity, freedom and dialogue. It requires designing both formal and informal education and research systems in a way which fully incorporates these bottom line values. Given the great and growing power of the noosphere, those of us who do not choose to work with it may encounter many strange surprises and unnecessary difficulties, as in any bad alchemical marriage. A higher level of collective intelligence, both spiritual and mundane, would be essential to improving our chances of rising with all the threats to the existence of the human species.

1.2.2.3.2 How New Information Technology and Money Change the Game

Spirit and DNA are certainly not the only deep, fundamental forces driving the course of future history. We are now at the early stages of a massive growth in the use of Information Technology (IT); unless there is some kind of massive war and return to dark ages (which itself would raise our chances of extinction and impede spiritual growth), we need to plan for a world in which all flows of money, all corporations and many other activities will be redefined as files in the emerging global Internet of Things (IOT). This redefines the nature of what it means to create a new, viable social contract for nations and for the world.

Careless deployments even of simple, weak information technologies has already begun to destabilize the limited, partial social contracts we have come to depend on, like the US Constitution. Many business plans have emerged, based on myopic social and economic pressures, which would be nonsustainable in a number of ways if present trends continue and they basically take over the world. Manifestos for a human-friendly internet have started to appear, but unless we do the hard work of translating them into actual system specifications for the emerging foundations of hardware and software, it will all be like the pious words one often hears before an organization starts creating a disaster. The enemy here is a kind of entropy, which can only be overcome by a maximum use of consciousness and intelligence in concrete, mathematically grounded design implementing very basic mathematical, ethical and spiritual principles. This is one more reason why we need a stronger cadre of people in the middle, capable of integrating and appreciating all the critical aspects of this challenge.

In 2018, the French research group INRIA and the leading French electric power market funded me to go to Rio De Janeiro, to present a paper on how the new “deep learning” or “new AI” technology changes the game in energy markets (and climate change). As this paper went through review at many levels of the IEEE, I was asked to give more details on how to address the larger challenges of the coming IOT in general. Because that paper is already widely available, and contains many further citations available on the web, I will not repeat the details here [34].

As a general matter, I doubt that the earth is the first planet in this universe to reach this adolescent stage of its development, when its survival is at risk. I would expect that noospheres which have survived in this cosmos have strongly developed “brains,” which support intelligence and mind, and “immune systems,” which encourage the kind of social contracts and rules which make it possible to survive difficult times like ours. Could it be that the “Ten Commandments” were the best social contract or covenant which could be communicated to foster such things, and to foster intellectual growth, at the early time when they appeared? Could it be that the US Constitution, which was influenced by authentic spiritual inputs from Scottish Rite Freemasons and Quakers as well as readers like Jefferson of Locke, Francis Bacon and Newton, were an improved Gen II social contract, supported by the noosphere for many years, until… Could we be entering a new era, when a more sophisticated Gen 3 social contract, implemented in advanced IT, is essential to survival through the next phase of our growth?

2.      Selected Examples of What the new Vision Implies

This new vision is intended to integrate many, many threads of activity and thought, the details of which are beyond the scope of any one journal article. Here I will give just a few examples where a new viewpoint changes many things.

2.1.Afterlife: What Choices do You really face as you retire, age and die?

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvPWgC9w5R31feznl-G3qOaRTHhmKewnSFbszs968V34NKpUSsGf4jea6e1ZEkO1AJ7YxIP4iPWtNX9sfLOrtoQGXVZLx8NY0Ngeuyb7Vd4l8uNTQ4cNCtDLPcIi-gkg9Abj07g_ivGx8/s320/Afterlife_choice.jpg
Figure 2. Choices which each of us faces as we retire, age, die

Like it or not, every one of us is destined to change in a major way as we age, retire and die. Many religions tell us that we will be the same person after we die, but first person experience tells me that I already change in a major way from periods of clarity and attunement in early morning to late night periods of exhaustion, especially after alcohol. The noosphere species model essentially predicts that when we die the Alchemical marriage also ends, leaving one part alive but only one part. What is the destiny of that part?

Some mystics claim that the answer to that question varies a lot from person to person, depending on what they level of development they have  achieved in their lifetime [44,45]. The noosphere species model basically predicts that this is true. More precisely, it predicts that our lifetime and training will lead us towards a fate like the left side of figure 2, or the right side, or a mix, depending on what we learn as a whole system of brain and soul.

Of course, our world is full of people who just “know” that this could not be the choice we are facing. In my plenary talk on conscious and machine intelligence in 2018 [17], I began my summary with a quote from Mark Twain: “It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” That happens again and again in all human cultures, from island tribes to branches of science and religion. Even as a child, I wondered how people could have so much conviction about THEIR tribe’s beliefs when so many other tribes were equally convinced about something else, with about the same level of justification. Again and again, I have also seen how powerful organizations try to sell themselves by simplifying, by pushing people into simple black and white choices. In today’s world, people have mostly gravitated to two possibilities about afterlife – either it is a total fraud, or you wake up your same old self unchanged, on your way to absolute perfection of pain or joy or reincarnation.
      
It really made me sad last year to see certain Hindu theologians taking strong measures, as strong as certain believers in Adam and Eve, to defend the dogma that the “you” who experiences astral travel or death is exactly the same “you” as the one in everyday life. In MY everyday life, I have learned more and more to understand the differences between the “me” thinking clearly in the early morning and the “me” late at night most nights, especially after a bit of alcohol. In fact, after the sail away party with unlimited free margaritas, I remember the feeling of having hardly any functioning brain at all and operating my body and words as one would operate a puppet from a great distance – and I remember others in the same state who were less functional.

But if you and I are alchemical marriages, what happens when the angel gets to be a widow or widower?

This more scientific viewpoint, less black-and-white than today’s theologies, is actually much closer to the ancient beliefs of places like Mexico, dating back to the days before various emperors manipulated them. I highly recommend that everyone should see the happy children’s movie Coco, which does a brilliant job of explaining that culture, a culture which is much more totally true than most of the cultures with power today. The movie is correct in depicting certain technical details which I could even give you an equation for, but blogs are not the right place for equations. Still, I can give you a hint in words. Survival in Coco depends on a flow of some kind of emotional energy, like what Freud called “psychic energy,” like “qi” or “mana”, like the backpropagation flows which govern the changes made over time in ANY intelligent network. For the dead people in Coco, their survival depends on a flow of qi from a primary source, the world of the living; when it dries up, dry up and dissolve into powder, like a certain passage in the Book of Esdras (a book in the modern Catholic bible we have at home  but not in the King James bible). On my latest cruise on Holland American, I certainly saw some rich people showing signs of dissolving away into powder, kept alive mainly by connections to their grandchildren.

This way of thinking was not just in Mexico. Gavriel Kaye has written great novels conveying the old culture of China. Even under Confucius and Meng Tzu (“Mencius”), the assumptions and practices were very much like Coco, until a famous “reformer” Zhu Xi, catering to a power-driver emperor, redefined the state religion. (Many people in China blame its current problems on Jiang Zemin, the latest great secular reformer, but I blame them more on Zhu Xi. Both offered a mix of great new positive insights and great new dangerous oversimplifications.) Even Mormons might see something they agree with in Coco. Much of East Asia still maintiains that culture, despite the efforts by people like Zhu Xi and Jiang Zemin to stamp it out and control them.

One important detail: in Coco, a bad guy gets energy from people who are NOT of his family. OK, he was bad, but it is not natural to restrict the flow of energy only to flows within a family. It violates nature to limit things in that way. In a previous year, we actually visited Mao Tze Tung’s dorm room in the college in ChangSha where Zhu Xi taught, and saw the echoes of his scream that it is not just within the family.

But Figure 2 shows you two pictures. Only one is the simple “Day of the Dead.” The beliefs of the Mayans included Coco as ONE PART of it, but there was also that other world of “the heavens,” and the alternative real, great hope depicted by the Sian Kaan, the tree which bridges through the earth from that Day of the Dead realm to the world of the heavens. To me, this is ever so real, and I wish others could really see how real it is and how much it changes – offering our best hope not only to do better than the happy skeletons which eventually do dissolve into powder, but also our best hope to save the mundane human species from extinction, if only we refuse to turn into happy skeletons and insist on always reaching with real energy and receptivity to the real heavens. (See http://www.werbos.com/Space_personal_Werbos.htm for my chapter in the book Beyond Earth, Krone ed, Apogee Press. Reaching out with rocketplanes actually is part of this, but no, it is not at all the whole thing.)

Of course, we saw a lot of great trees in our latest cruise up the Amazon, and a lot of people on the cruise reaching out very energetically to try to learn and see nature and life and cultures beyond their own grandchildren. They were not neglecting their grandchildren. The Sian Kaan still always connects to the earth and to its roots,  but it adds another connection, to a primary source of qi above them, qi which flows back to the living world and to the Coco world (the world of “widow” and “widower” spirit personalities).  The duality Figure 2 is also consistent with the Egyptian Book of the Dead, which asserts that each of us actually has two souls, one more like the part on the left and one like the part on the right.

How can we add this extra dimension to our lives, to our “inner life” as Quakers would say? That subject is very important to each of us, but beyond the scope of this subsection.

2.2.Challenges in the Training and Growth of the Soul

Important as these challenges are, this paper can only provide a few crude starting points at best.

Many years ago, I worked with a group of Quakers dissatisfied with the choices for K-12 education in our neighborhood. In creating a new K-8 school, we focused on a clear mission: to develop, through exercise and training but not indoctrination, the skills and strength of body, brain and soul, and the integration of the three. It really helps to remember a clear and central focus when engaged in a difficult new endeavor.

But how to do that? Because no one on earth really knows the most effective way to fulfill that mission, we drew on deep cultures from all over the world. In addition to standard Quaker meditation and practice (which entails the absolute minimum of indoctrination and dogma consistent with making the effort), we drew on the best yoga exercises we could find, Sufi dances, Western mystical traditions and exercises, native American practices, and so on. There is a huge need for more systematic research to see how these various methods work, for different people, and to use our new understanding of intelligent systems to try to do better [46].

That school certainly does not tell us what the best practices really are, but there were interesting lessons learned. The most enduring successful exercises were probably: (1) the Quaker meditation period, which stresses learning to listen to an inner voice; (2) an English composition class in which children learned to give feedback on each other’s work, in a way which supports communication and listening and understanding skills both mundane and deeper; (3) the conflict resolution class, which had much the same benefits, and also helped prevent the waste of time on neurotic conflict behavior which slows down many schools today.

Similar considerations apply to adults as well, of course. There is a deep spiritual imperative to keep learning and growing at all ages. At the old National Science Foundation, following the vision of Vannevar Bush before it was degraded by certain politicians circa 2014, many of us reached high towards a system of honorable competition and very deep dialogue, especially in well-managed panel reviews, which in my view activated spiritual connections and higher intelligence much more than what goes on in many churches and temples. Authenticity and commitment to truth were alive and well in that high-energy environment, as strenuous (but exhausting) in its way as the most professional athletic events.

A great challenge to the IT systems of the future is how to foster that kind of deep dialogue all across human society. Today’s email and social network systems clearly do not create that level of authentic deep dialogue, in part because of phenomena like trolls, in part because words on a page do not automatically evoke natural deep human connections to humans, in part because people need more training in simple sanity [16, 20, 21], and in part because research on It had yet to harness the full power of intelligent systems to support collaboration. In my experience, weekly or monthly international video conferences can work far better than the usual social media, but this is just one small step.

The technical requirements for IT platforms to allow humans to collaborate more effectively, without any need for risky, questionable and unnatural “cyborg” interfaces, are too complex to discuss here in great detail. Those interested might consider a case study, a discussion of how such a system might have avoided the kind of risk and damage which can be seen at the present time in the Brexit debates of March, 2019 (which I hope will be overcome through some kind of “miracle”). [47].

2.3 Comments on Advanced Mysticism

This paper is not a proper place to try to recount all my personal experiments with psi and spirit since the time in 1967 when I first decided it would be worthwhile to try to understand them more concretely. But a few general comments are in order.

First, I have found that the noosphere species concept does more than just justify the idea of psi and soul at an abstract level. The idea that the “brain” of the noosphere is governed by the same universal mathematical laws which apply to any intelligent system turns out to be very useful in finding order in an otherwise very chaotic and diverse ocean of information. For example, if we accept that growth and adaptation of the noosphere brain is governed by modulated backpropagation, just like higher biological and computer intelligent systems, and we recognize that the word “qi” is simply a subjective way of talking about the (several types) of modulated backpropagation operating in the noosphere, we can more easily adapt to the reality that we are a part but not the rulers of an extremely large and intelligent system. We can avoid the twin hazards, the Scylla and Charybdis of spiritual development – delusions of grandeur and delusions of helplessness. These twin hazards remind me often of an initiation lecture I received for certain Senate staff, which they summarized as: “You must play. You can’t win.” We are called to engage enough to learn, to contribute as much as we can, but not to try to control or bias the process (which is not only unwise and unnatural but also very hazardous at times).

Many mystics talks about “planes of existence,’ like travel to astral planes and so on. The noosphere species theory would interpret these important and valid experiences as experiences in a realm less real than our mundane world of atoms, experiences in something like an internet chat room of the noosphere. At a higher level, when
we enter into states of “meditation” where we really feel ourselves as part of the noosphere, the vast mind connecting our entire earth or solar system, and respond to the values and feelings and thoughts at that level, we can become channels for that higher qi, which will continue at least as long as life on earth continues, and perhaps even more.  It requires great discipline over time to learn to cope with the resulting “firehose of information” [48]. None of this requires accounting for the quantum mechanical aspect of noosphere level intelligence [33,49], but once we do, it is somewhat easier and more natural to think of it as an ocean of information across space time and the cosmos rather than a firehose or volatile kaleidoscope.

In my last cruise, in early 2019, I finished reading “Vita Nostra,” a one sided but great and useful novel about spiritual development. No, we are not words, but we are… partly something like that. And we need to pursue many types of discipline to connect more completely to that which may not be truly eternal, but will last billions of years, if we do not screw up all life on earth. And, as Jesus said, we need to allow a certain kind of love permeate us deeply at all levels, including a very strenuous love for the spirit of truth which, he had, would be what really comes in later days like ours.

In summary: St. Paul Letter to the Galatians, Revised Standard Version, 3:5: “Does he who supplies the Spirit to you and works miracles among you do so by works of the law [i.e. rules like kosher, five pillars, etc.], or by hearing with faith?” Learning to really listen and hear, with faith in the idea that it is worth the effort, is a central part of all of this.


2.3.          Comments on interface of soul with brain and psychokinesis

A key aspect of the noosphere species theory is that the dominant partner in the brain-soul interface is the soul or dark matter side. Thus in attempts to connect traces of psi with data like brain recordings, we should not expect to find anything like a psychic reception or transmission organ in the brain or the peripheral nervous system. In actuality, different people should be expected to learn different interfaces, as they train the neural networks both of their soul and of their brain. This fits well with the more practical, earthy experience reported by people like Sanders [50], by yoga experience with chakras and by other experiential mystical traditions from all over the world.

This suggests that the neural correlates of psi also vary from person to person, but entail in general having some parts of the brain or ganglia tuned to “criticality” states which make it relatively easy for the soul to perturb them. It also suggests that soul might or might not also be able to connect to intelligent critical systems made up of electronic or photonics components, but because the development of such systems was not tweaked by billions of years of low-level inputs from the noosphere, we really do not hyet know what the possibilities for such systems are. Because “embodiment” is crucial to any intelligent system, we do know that the usual dreams of immortality through downloading are grossly misplaced.

Likewise, to explain phenomena like PK, we need to consider the pathway of signals from brain to personal soul either directly or indirectly to "invisible muscles" of dark matter which can then perturb ordinary matter. Something has to perturb ordinary matter for PK to be possible, either if we believe Einstein realism or if we believe quantum realism, and that something has to be something we don’t see with today's instruments. To say that its "dark matter" is no more narrow or specialized than saying it is a hardly known form of material substrate. 

The challenge we are best equipped to address is not so much how to strengthen the "invisible" muscles but how to connect better with (and train) the "invisible neural networks" which connect our brains or our conscious selves to what those "invisible" muscles do. It’s not about quantum mechanics; it's about training (and understanding) neural networks.

For my own personal self-training, in addition to trying out a variety of exercises and learning how to be open while doing them, I have also made heavy use of the “bootstrap” principle [46] important to training all kinds of neural network, from brains to soul. The key idea is that all intelligent systems include subsystems which learn to make predictions of what they see. If we see a partial but fuzzy image, like the light in relatively dark but slightly lit room, if we focus hard on try to predict what we see and feel and “see in the dark,” and become receptive to clues from any kind of inner sensation anywhere, there is hope that our natural (nonverbal) neural networks will learn to use and thus respond to those other inputs. Focusing on inputs like moving bits of fog can help one to learn to “look sideways” and see them more easily, partly just by mundane pattern recognition but partly by more. Procedures for testing which rigidly separate mundane and psi inputs and outputs can be useful for testing, but terrible for training. However, all of this can be seem as just a set of thoughts requiring testing in future research.

References

[1] Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, The Phenomenon of Man, revised English translation, Harper and Row, 1965.
[2] Vladimir I. Vernadsky, The Biosphere and the Noosphere, English translation,  American Scientist (1945): xxii-12.
[3] Clarke, Arthur C. Childhood's end. Hachette UK, 2012.
[4] Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, Activation of Energy: Enlightening Reflections on Spiritual Energy, English translation, Harcourt, 1976.
[5] Hubbard, Barbara Marx. Conscious evolution: Awakening the power of our social potential. New World Library, 2015.
[6] www.themp.org

[7] Art Swift, U.S., Belief in Creationist View of Humans at New Low, in Politics Gallup, May 22, may 2017, https://news.gallup.com/poll/210956/belief-creationist-view-humans-new-low.aspx

[8] Greeley, A. M., & McCready, W. C. (1975).  Are we a nation of mystics?  New York Times Magazine, Jan. 26, 1975. Reprinted in Goleman, ed, Consciousness.
[9] P. Werbos, Quantum measurement, consciousness and the soul: a new, alternative position, Activitas Nervosa Superior, in press, 2019.
[10] Radin, Dean, Real Magic, Ancient Wisdom, Modern Science, and a Guide to the Secret Power of the Universe, Harmony Books, 2018 .
[11] Targ, R., & Puthoff, H. E. Mind-reach: Scientists look at psychic abilities. Hampton Roads Publishing, 2005
[12] https://drpauljohn.blogspot.com/2017/08/where-we-really-come-from.html
[13] Simpson, George Gaylord. Major features of evolution. Columbia University Press: New York, 1955.
[14] May, R. M. Stability and complexity in model ecosystems: monographs in population biology, Princeton University Press, 1974.
[15] Wilson EO. Sociobiology: The New Synthesis Harvard University Press. Cambridge, Mass. 1975.
[16] Werbos, Paul J., Links Between Consciousness and the Physics of Time, International IFNA -ANS Journal "Problems of nonlinear analysis in engineering systems”, 2015, www.werbos.com/Mind_in_Time.pdf
[17] P.Werbos (2108), Consciousness from AI to Noosphere, plenary talk at the Science of Consciousness Conference, Tucson, Arizona, link to slides and talk posted at
www
.
facebook.com/paul.werbos/posts/1924099547620453 .
 https://drpauljohn.blogspot.com/2019/05/stability-criticality-trust-and-soul.html
[18] P. Werbos, 2017, Unification of Objective Realism and Spiritual Development, http://scsiscs.org/conference/index.php/scienceandscientist/2017/paper/view/166/53 . 
[19]  Jonathan P. Dowling, Gerhard Klimeck, Paul Werbos, Final Report on ECCS/NSF Workshop on Quantum, Molecular and High Performance Modeling and Simulation for Devices and Systems (QMHP) arXiv:0709.3310v2
[20] Lambert, Craig. "The Talent for Aging Well George E. Vaillant's generational research on Harvard men unveils the differences that distinguish the" happy-well" from the" sad-sick" in later life." Harvard Magazine 103.4 (2001): 45-47. http://harvardmagazine.com/2001/03/the-talent-for-aging-wel-html
[21] Vaillant, George E. Ego mechanisms of defense: a guide for clinicans and researchers. American Psychiatric Pub, 1992.
[22] https://lifeboat.com/ex/getas
[23] Bostrom, N. (2002). Existential risks: Analyzing human extinction scenarios and related hazards. Journal of Evolution and Technology, 9.
[24] Werbos, P. J. (2017). New technology options and threats to detect and combat terrorism. In Identification of Potential Terrorists and Adversary Planning: Emerging Technologies and New Counter-Terror Strategies, NATO/IOS, 132, 34. www.werbos.com/NATO_terrorism.pdf.
[25] Starr, Steven, Nuclear War, Nuclear Winter, and Human Extinction, Federation Of American Scientists (2015).
[26] Peter Ward, Green Sky: Global Warming, the Mass Extinctions of the Past, and What They Can Tell Us About Our Future. Harper-Collins, 2007.
[27] Hotinski, R. M., Bice, K. L., Kump, L. R., Najjar, R. G., & Arthur, M. A. Ocean stagnation and end-Permian anoxia. Geology, 2001, 29(1), 7-10.
[28] Werbos, P. J. Urgent Investment Opportunity To Scale Up Solar Industry in Atacama. www.werbos.com/Atacama.pdf, prepared for Solar Energy Research Consortium of Chile and Enersol 2016.  
[29] Purkey, Sarah G., William M. Smethie Jr, Geoffrey Gebbie, Arnold L. Gordon, Rolf E. Sonnerup, Mark J. Warner, and John L. Bullister. "A Synoptic View of the Ventilation and Circulation of Antarctic Bottom Water from Chlorofluorocarbons and Natural Tracers." Annual review of marine science 10 (2018): 503-527.
[30] P. Werbos, Could Terminator II come true? A true story
https://drpauljohn.blogspot.com/2009/10/could-terminator-ii-come-true-true.html
[31] P. Werbos, The New AI: Basic concepts, and urgent risks and opportunities in the internet of things,  in Kozma, R., Alippi, C., Choe, Y., & Morabito, F. C. (Eds.), Artificial Intelligence in the Age of Neural networks and Brain computing. Academic Press, 2018
[32] P. Werbos, From ADP to the Brain: Foundations, Roadmap, Challenges and Research Priorities, in Prof. Int’l Conf. Neural Networks, 2014. IEEE. http://arxiv.org/abs/1404.0554
[33] Werbos, P.J. and Dolmatova, L., 2016. Analog quantum computing (AQC) and the need for time-symmetric physics. Quantum Information Processing, 15(3), pp.1273-1287.
[34] Ehrlich, Paul R., and John P. Holdren. "56 Impact of Population Growth." Environmental Ethics: The Big Questions171 (2010): 426.
[35] P. Werbos, P. Intelligence in the brain: A theory of how it works and how to build it, Neural Networks, Vol. 22, Issue 3, April 2009, Pages 200-212
[36] Werbos, Paul J., and Joshua JJ Davis, Regular cycles of forward and backward signal propagation in prefrontal cortex and in consciousness, Frontiers in systems neuroscience 10 (2016). www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5125075/
[37] Toynbee AJ. A Study of History. In 12 Vols. Oxford University Press; 1934.
[38] Spengler, Oswald. The decline of the West. Oxford University Press, USA, 1991.
[39] P. Werbos, Seeing the World Through a New Worldview, and Eastern Island
https://drpauljohn.blogspot.com/2018/10/seeing-world-through-new-worldview-and.html
https://drpauljohn.blogspot.com/2019/05/what-kind-of-warning-does-collapse-of.html 
[40] Locke, John. "Second Treatise on Civil Government in Social Contract." Oxford University Press, 1962.
[41] Schelling, Thomas C. The strategy of conflict. Harvard university press, 1980.
[42] Davis, J. J. J., Hobi, S. F., & Schübeler, F. A Reflection on Future Strategies for Farming, the Use of Technology and Environmental Restoration - Towards Social Harmony and General Wellbeing. Open Science framework, December 22 2018,  osf.io/f5rzj
[43] P. Werbos, AI Intelligence for the Grid 16 Years Later: Progress, Challenges and Lessons for Other Sectors, in  Proc. Int’l Joint Conf. Neural Networks, IEEE, 2018. Also posted at www.werbos.com/E/GridIOT.pdf
[44] Ouspensky, Peter Demianovich, and Petr Demʹi︠a︡novich UspenskiÄ­. In search of the miraculous: Fragments of an unknown teaching. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2001.
[45] The First and Second Book of Esdras, in the New English Bible with the Apocrypha, Cambridge University Press, 1970
[46] P. Werbos, Neural networks and the experience and cultivation of mind. Neural Networks 32 (2012): 86-95.
[47] P. Werbos, Consciousness, intelligent systems and Brexit
https://drpauljohn.blogspot.com/2019/04/consciousness-intelligent-systems-and.html
[48] Besant, Annie, and Charles W. Leadbeater. "Thought-forms (1901)." Quest Book edn. Wheaton (1961). Also see
https://www.facebook.com/paul.werbos/posts/2422239401139796
 
[49] P.Werbos, Self-organization: Re-examining the basics and an alternative to the Big Bang,      in K.Pribram, ed, Origins: Brain and Self-Organization, Erlbaum, 1994
[50] Sanders, Pete A. You Are Psychic!: The Free Soul Method. Simon and Schuster, 1999.



Posted by Dr. PaulJohnW at 8:19 AM No comments:

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Facebook as a testbed for really crucial unresolved questions about where IT is headed



Leading IT people have been debating what to do about regulating Facebook. My response to them:

==============================================

First of all, I really hope members of this group can help get us all out of a kind of descent into entropy, as legislators and other treat the Facebook case like a visit to the local ice cream parlor or cocktail party, making faces to show who they like and who they don't like. If the growing interactions between IT and the political systems of the world end up like that, driven  by personalities rather than principles, the best case outcome is that we all end up on the path China is pursuing (which is not going uphill right now by any measure, as economic growth has only just begun to slow down).

IT'S NOT ABOUT WHETHER WE LIKE OLD ZUCKIE OR NOT! If we think of it that way, we are doomed. Really doomed. It's about a TESTBED.

Good lawyers understand that there are important test cases which need to be considered in a larger context: i.e., what kind of GENERAL principles can we extract from the case? (Good engineering research leaders also understand the importance of TESTBEDS or initial niche markets on the way to new technologies.)

A major problem in the Facebook testbed is that we don't have clear general principles, really. It is natural for all of us to veer away things which we don't have real answers for. But to get to a better outcome, SOMEONE -- some group of people, really -- has to have enough determination to face up to the key general questions for which we do not have answers. 

And really, there are several very important Facebook testbeds out there which we need to face up to, important to the whole future of IT -- the personal data issue, the fake news issue and the cryptocurrency issue. All three will affect the entire IT industry. If we don't have the first one halfway straight, are we ready for the third? Congress has to deal with all three here and now, by acting or postponing or studying, but let's get to the first one.

We have all read a lot of righteous thumping about privacy and transparency. All that thumping reminds me of the work on personality types which David mentioned a few months ago. One of the really important personality variables is "tolerance of cognitive dissonance." That's the kind of trait which sometimes is very valuable, and sometimes very destructive. I ask myself: "What do I think of those political recruiters who look for people who loyally believe and act on every word in the Old Testament, in Atlas Shrugged and in the New Testament?" When people righteously thump their chests and rigorously demand mutually contradictory things, or just unattainable things, we get into problems. If people demand absolute privacy ("all information about any one or anything is totally owned by that person or thing, including derivative statements by others") AND absolute transparency (as in David Brin's proposal that all data should be available to all people), we will not be capable of regulation or design which allows coherent legislation or a rational evolution of the technology. We need to ask the question further. What are the concrete actionable PRINCIPLES which should be applied to the privacy versus transparency part of the facebook testbed, and to the general case? 

That is such an obvious question... yet I cannot cite a really credible answer, addressing the basic tradeoffs. I am aware of the two extreme proposals I just mentioned. The IEEEUSA has a policy committee on communications and computing, and they issued a position paper last year which fleshes out the pro-privacy position as explicitly as I have seen anywhere. See https://ieeeusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/DigitalPrivacy0618.pdf. For background on the committee itself, see
 https://ieeeusa.org/volunteers/committees/ccp/. This was much more operational than the thumping I have seen elsewhere, yet it leaves open some core questions. 

Looking for serious substance instead of random thumping, I went to scholar.google.com. Searching on "privacy transparency integrity," I didn't get crisp stuff, so next I searched on "security transparency code." That led to a few important pieces, like:
https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/33780569/bernstein_transparency-paradox.pdf?sequence=1.
The key lesson there seems to be that we really need to pay more attention not to the loud issues about facebook users but to the persistent deep issues of surveillance and constraint of all those folks who have jobs in the world. A lot of our growing global dysfunction may be related more to the latter. My wife suggested searching at scholar.google.com on "privacy transparency software," and there is a lot to consider there.

In truth, the underlying dilemmas seem almost impossible, and depressing. There is a huge spectrum of theoretical possibilities between total privacy (shutting out even NSA and google) and Brin's vision of total transparency, related not only to social networks and communication s but to currencies, both  crypto and traditional. I did a paper myself for NSF in 2014, suggesting read-only backdoors just for certified law enforcement (also too vague), but can the designers of operating systems, chips and communications links really build such systems and certify that they are what they seem in an open, transparent way without other unintended consequences? I see no sign of anyone even attempting that, even when global cyberwars against power grids have started to heat up and the US vulnerability becomes ever more obvious. 

One possible guideline towards a viable "new social contract" on this: status quo ante. What could employees and employers, voters and politicians, press and people get from each other involuntarily BEFORE the advent of new technology? We should be able to live with that. It's not obvious that we can live with the chaos now just beginning. 

Best of luck,

   Paul 
===============================================================

Addendum: it is hard to wrap one's mind around real possible solutions if one relies mainly on a "machine learning" foundation, as I do. To survive, we need both a brain AND an immune system. It amuses me in a sad way that we are starting so many cyberwars  in the spirit of "machine learning gives us an edge," when the people doing that do not understand the powders AND LIMITS of machine learning as much as I do (or even as much as the Chinese do, far beyond the proud local novices). But how much true collective intelligence do we want to require in our new internet of things? And how much damage can happen if gullible buyers buy products to control their lives which have been overhyped and distorted much more than systems like SLS which Trump has just begun to learn about? Immune systems are more about satisficing than about traditional optimization, and simplicity and clarity are more at a premium there. It's less about creating new means of production, but preventing new means of predation and criminality (analogous to cancer). The term "social contract" is not used lightly here. 
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Thursday, July 4, 2019

New authoritative report has data on when pacific oxygen may run out


This is one of the figures in an important new article in the Proceedings of the National Academh of Sciences:
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/06/25/1906556116
This is an important clue to the question I still wonder about: how soon will oxygen start to run out in the deep Pacific Ocean, causing a release of poison gas enough to kill every human on earth (as has happend five to ten times before in earth history)? Will it all start in 30 years, or never, or even sooner in case of an Antarctic surprise? No one on earth knows; in my video interview,  https://vimeo.com/342606790, I explain the best I knew just a few weeks ago, but I keep looking for new information.
The curves above give an important new clue. The melting part of the top curve (pieces of downward slope) is not a threat to the oxygen system; it is the upwards pieces which represent freezing of oxygenated salty sea ice. this figure is for the Ross Sea, where the main oxygen supply for the Pacific Ocean is located (the primary "polynya"). The top curve looks just fine, just as much upslope in recent years as before. But that raises a question: WHY the decline observed in the NOAA/Purkey data figure, copied over in my paper www.werbos.com/Atacama.pdf? My best guess is that rising fresh water is the main reason... how else could the same amount of freezing be followed by less oxygen in the depths?
The bottom curve suggests that the warming trend of the more recent years really is sending the overall levels down, enough so that 30-50 years from now, the top curve will not be so nice. Combined with the freshening effect, it starts to look again as bad as it did when I wrote the Atacama paper. Maybe. But yes, unproven. (People do buy insurance for much lower risks!)

How could we narrow down the HUGE uncertainty here? Lots of  people have built giant climate models, but I know from my work at DOE in the 1980's that megamodels can be out of touch with time-series data. And so, why not apply more sophisticated neural networks to understand where this is going? https://comp-astrophys-cosmol.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40668-019-0029-9 might be relevant, though I think I could do better. The PNAS article shows that great time-series data do exist for ice cover. the NASA Aquarius salinity database is, sadly, a lot weaker, but some of us have known for decades how to use certain types of neural network for data fusion with missing data and even for multiscale modeling (essential here since higher resolution would be desirable in the Ross Sea polynya). Salinity, ice cover and surface temperature at multiresolution... I wonder what that would tell us? A lot more than an aggregate time series...



Posted by Dr. PaulJohnW at 8:45 AM No comments:

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

purpose or telos: how it explains how brains (and souls) really work

If you really want to understand how brains work ("to create mind", a certain level of consciousness), I claim that the best starting point today is the open access paper Werbos, P. J., & Davis, J. J. (2016). Regular cycles of forward and backward signal propagation in prefrontal cortex and in consciousness. Frontiers in systems neuroscience, 10, 97. (It reviews the big picture, and cites lots of further sources.)

Why should you believe me?

Quick answer: this paper was a major watershed for the TELEOLOGICAL approach, which assumes that the brain is not just any old complex systems, but a system evolved to serve ultimate values or TELOS ....

Here is what I posted this morning to a neuroscience discussion list, where one of the people wants to understand brains as "intentional shystems":

====================================================================\============================================================================

in·ten·tion·al·i·ty
/inˌten(t)SHəˈnalədē/
Learn to pronounce
noun
  1. the fact of being deliberate or purposive.
    • PHILOSOPHY
      the quality of mental states (e.g., thoughts, beliefs, desires, hopes) that consists in their being directed toward some object or state of affairs.

Getting past your debate with Shiva (which I leave to you two).. it is important to ask "What is the REALITY behind this word 'intentionality'?" That is perhaps less a matter of choosing a definition, and more a matter of how we understand reality.

The word "intentionality" in SOME version is of central importance to neuroscience. The behaviorist approach of BR Skinner has largely been limited and put on a leash in the study of human psychology, but in neuroscience there is still a dominant tendency of many people to study the brain "without using their own mirror neurons." Many people model the neural networks of the brain as if the brain were any old complex system, the same mathematics they would use to model the motion of clouds or pond scum. Some people even imagine that sheer complexity is enough to produce intelligence/consciousness/mind, in a way which suggests that a pond full of scum without soul should be more conscious than a human brain. 

The alternative approach, which needs to guide neuroscience more than it now does, is the frank out-of-the-closet TELEOLOGICAL approach. 

Teleology is not exactly the same as intentionality. People talk about "intentionality" in neuroscience more than "teleology," because the word "intentionality" seems softer. But some of us are not called to be softies. The issue is important, and we need to be clear about it.

I would claim that we cannot begin to understand how brain-level consciousness works without accounting for the central role of TELOS or purpose. And yes, the paper by Werbos and Davis (which anyone can find easily via scholar.google.com, if you know to click on the usual three lines) expounds that approach, reviewing a lot of the work building up to it. 

In technical terms, what is the difference between intentionality and teleology?
In discussions with the usual fuzzy world, I wouldn't try to make that distinction, because the conflict between goal-free affect-free psychology and BOTH of these related ideas is a more urgent issue here and now. Why obsess on conflicts between good guys, when both are being marginalized (in computational neuroscience at least) by a great mass of affect-free zombies?

But in discussions within the realm of good guys... I remember a great debate on "intelligent systems" led by Albus and Meystel (famous in parts of AI and robotics) which I contributed to.

A key debate: are intelligent systems (minds) systems which learn to achieve GOALS, TARGETS... (intentionality)... or do they maximize some measure of happiness or telos (teleology, the tradition from Aristotle to Bentham to Von Neumann and Raiffa)? I still support the SECOND position. Goals are a big part of human life, just as "predictive analytics" and pattern recognition are, but they are SUBSYSTEMS, subordinate to the larger teleological system which they evolved to serve.  

I see no reason to believe that souls or noospheres are any different. I say that after rather intense exploration both of the phenomenon and the history of the explorations of others. Even the Lagrange-Euler equations which Jack and  others have discussed for centuries are a special case of the more general Von Neumann/ Bellman systems for maximizing or minimizing a utility function over time. Without a firm grasp of the ever-present issue of purpose, one can never really engage with any of these realities in a deep way. 

====================
(The Werbos and Davis paper maps the mathematics of optimization systems to specific structures, and shows how real-time empirical data from a couple of the key parts of the brain fit with that mathematics.) 

Posted by Dr. PaulJohnW at 5:54 AM No comments:

Message to engineers about regulation of Facebook Cryptocurrency


One advantage engineers can have in bringing other folks to reality is that many of us deeply appreciate how concrete testbeds are vital in helping us appreciate even the most general of cosmic principles. 

There is a new testbed out there on the issue of privacy and security... the growing emerging issue of privacy and security connected to facebook's new cryptocurrency, which was preceded by a whole lot of industrial strength planning and analysis. Lots of people I know will be deep into that testbed for its own sake, which is reasonable, but someone ought to be approaching it in a more fundamental way, seeing what lessons we might get from it. DC and EU will be paying LOTS of attention to this testbed, but muddling through in the usual fuzzy ways. 

My first (yet informed) impression is that it teaches us that none of us on earth knows what he/she is doing enough to avoid disaster.

Many people pushing cryptocurrencies have argued that they can help us avoid really gross dangerous and growing problems, like the Panama papers scandal, with billions and billions of dollars going into hidden, criminal and corrupt activities, helping to destabilize the world political systems and even to degrade social networks into instruments of propaganda and state control... and facilitate the corruption of the state apparati themselves. If cryptocurrencies could help... we really could USE the help. Criminals would object, but we probably still have enough honest and well-meaning people to get something better implemented, if enough of us can agree on what to implement. 

OK... if a system of registered qualifying cryptocurrencies were accepted by enough people worldwide... analogous to qualifying ISOs and RTOs following FERC rules,or registered internet domains... what rules on privacy and security should be required to qualify? (So instead of asking "how well regulated and monitored will Facebook be?", a question which reeks of Chinese gumshoes, we may ask "what should the general rules be which it should follow, and how can automated systems be designed to ensure compliance?")

Should all entities which hold any of the cryptocurrency be registered as entities in a kind of global register or ledger, a kind of metaledger, like internet domain names? Should the set of total holdings of any registered entity across all the cryptocurrencies be a matter of public record, annually or in real time? 
What does "public record" mean?

David Brin has argued that the only viable solution to the security/transparency issue is to accept the need for all of us to live in glass houses, where everyone has access to everything. "The antidote to Big Brother is Big Family of everyone. the antidote to all-knowing State is all-knowing everyone." I wouldn't agree, because creativity requires exploring domains of thought and possibility and understanding which no gumshoe would tolerate, and I don't see a clear credible path to making humans SO mature that they could live that way. At NSF, it was important to respect the privacy of people with new ideas, because theft is still rampant out there. However, what of total net worth or net worth by currency? Could it be that the benefits outweigh the costs of greater transparency in THAT sphere?

Or could the rules allow a LIMITED kind of public access to the information, access by authorized state agents for purposes like law enforcement? If so, how do such agents get registered to the system? Who qualifies? (I seem to recall some fuzzy confusion even at NSA on who gets access for what purpose, and how to prevent fuzzy random misjudgments about that which can backfire to an incredible degree.) Should the developer/owner of each cryptocurrency in the system have the right to decide who qualifies for access to the information, subject to general rules? What rules? Who is to prevent a cryptocurrency as bad as the scandalous bank branches which ended up serving criminals?  

Furthermore, if the world switches to such a system (or, worse, an messy informal reflection of that)... WITHOUT a vast and fundamental upgrade of cybersecurity affecting chips, operating systems and communications, informed by the coming transformations of quantum information science and technology (QuIST), all of this may simply be setting us up for a discrete shock ever so much worse than the market problems which brought us the Great Recession of 2008/2009 (and Obama). 

The technical level of present fuzzy discussions of the future simply is not concrete or detailed enough to offer much hope yet of avoiding such a shock. 

Best of luck. We need it.
Posted by Dr. PaulJohnW at 4:29 AM No comments:

Friday, June 14, 2019

The tortuous path to avoiding war with iran

Edited from a listserv discussion...

Here we are, possibly even on the brink of a global nuclear war which could kill all of us and all of those responsible, and we are talking about (an allegation about CIA) ... perhaps, if God exists and the CIA exists, they might be paying more attention to that right now, and not at all to ... Even I am tracking it, and am deeply sad we live in a world which now limits discussion of a path to avoid the worst, just as economists in China have been silenced re the huge immediate economic problems which China now faces which could have been avoided... Dialogue is perhaps the most important variable which separates the realm of destructive groupthink and real collective intelligence; new mechanisms which block dialogue threaten our very survival for that reason. 

"But why digress to such small things as all of humanity dying, and the role of the actions of the mind in affecting the probability of that? Why not get back to the subject, the really important thing, ... (ego stuff)". 
...

Since I have wandered the world quite a bit by now, I have probably been in the company of all kinds of intelligence operatives from many countries. When ... speculated (in a typical random episode) that I am an "agent of the deep state," he seemed to feel ... And once I was an employee of the US government.

Just as sinister folks are trying to manipulate US and Iran into an all-out war now, they were doing the same back at the start of the Iraq war, when I was an NSF employee. (No security clearance, but still in the government.)

I remember very well the day when our Indian division director asked for a little meeting in a small conference room. 'We have received a warning through the chain. One of you has severely overstepped his bounds -- not violating any laws, but seriously getting in the way of the plans (of Cheney). You need to know you are being watched, and are not appreciated." At that moment, a guy named Larry Goldberg smiled a smile full of joy and said that yes he had opposed the plans for a war in Iraq very loudly and unmistakably. "They recognize me! they recognize me!" But then she (the Division Director) sadly said"No, not you, Larry..", and she turned towards me with a sad nod. Larry practically blew up: "HIM???? You can't even tell whether he's a Republican or a Democrat, or which side he is on.... why would HE get this honor?" She sadly, softly said: "The difference, Larry, is that there are people who actually listen to him." Well, that was another time. Like Pandolfi, I had an official position which did give me some access to speak to some people, but neither of us was in charge. (I never met Pandolfi, so far as I know.) But even now, I suggest to people who send me emails to allow for the possibility that anything they send will end up in the files of Google, NSA and China, and perhaps others as well, and that I have enough of a history of being interesting that someone might actually read them. That does inhibit me a bit, not only on the less important subject of ...,  but on the more important subject of whether we get drawn into a bigger war than the Iraq one. 

One key thing I don't know: has Khamenei been driven into a state of insanity (e.g. Quds doing to him what Chris has sometimes done to Jack) that he really did choose to start a war? Or is he telling the truth that he did not order the crime in the Gulf (or sane enough to act as if that were true)? If MBS had a little talk with him, in a place safe from Quds ambush, would he agree to a joint effort to root out, expose and terminate the criminals? (Attempt to create a world nuclear war is not a mere venial sin.) 

Whatever.

Back to trying to make sense of a much greater level of weirdness.

=================================================
==============================================

Later I asked a group of folks:

Please forgive my taking up your time with a question, but the question is of some importance to us all, even those of us who like me get no income from thinking about it.

Does anyone here know of any credible serious intuition about who recently destroyed the tankers in the Gulf?

It is clear that someone with strong means and opportunity deliberately tried to start a war between the US and Iran, or at least to"show them we mean business" in a way which has the same implications. It is scary to me that we do not really know who it is, let alone how to stop them and prevent what could become global nuclear war. I see five obvious general possibilities, and really do not know.

(1) Trump has given full support and free rein to folks who say that Khamanei ordered it. Though Kahamanei denies it, Trump says he has evidence, and expects Kahamanei to lie in any case either for political advantage or as a Middle Eastern way of saying "in your face" to add insult to injury. Maybe. That belief could lead to a new war sooner than most of us expect, just like the WMD story which led to the previous war in Iraq. 

(2) Khamanei hints that Trump did it, in much the same way. After all, even few Republicans in Congress expect Trump's words always to be literal exact truth. Maybe, but I tend to doubt it. Still, who knows? It would not be SO far from various things in the Mueller report.

(3) What serious analysts in the US tend to gravitate towards: could it be that the Quds force of Iran simply acted on its own, without authorization, in part to force Khamanei to give them more power, and in part to express a kind of millennialist narcissistic self-image similar in nature to what moves some guys to be flashers? Maybe.

(4) What of the mirror image of (3), a kind of "American Quds force," NOT the deep state as Bannon imagines it, but something of that flavor? Some people I know have referred to that as "the gestapo," but my wife rightly points out that this tends to lead to gross misunderstanding as bad as Bannon's. I do not picture such a thing as being either unfunded, or as funded from Russia or Israel; there are other more realistic possibilities.

(5) What of a "third party" such as a salafist equivalent of the Quds force, equally fundamentalist and equally ruthless and even better funded from all the oil money sloshing around in the Middle East?

 The uncertainty here suggests it would be ever so important to get an international investigation going with the power not only to track down the culprit but to eliminate their ability to cause this kind of trouble in the future. But who is it? Where should people even look? 

My fun and games with intuition, such as they are, point to (5), which is not what I would have expected before fun and games. I would be very interested to hear what others feel, with of course the caveats that any rational person would have in such a situation.

Best regards,

   Paul

=============================

The most interesting feedback was, roughly, "Your list is incomplete. Quds has been sending lots of very advanced weapons to Houthis, who, like the Syrian militias who went over to ISIS, may be trading withpirates. Think Somalia."

Of course, it could actually be a situatoin fitting three of the six options, mutually consistent... ust as Syria is inherently multifacted.

What level of advanced technology should anyone rightly let out in such situations?

As I watch this on France24, and also note the coverage of the Morsi event (which very much connects with what I picked hp before I sent out this question)... I am surprised about the false assumptions taken for granted both about Erdogan and about the rest of the Moslem Brotherhood. It was never just a political party in Egypt, as even a simple web search should show.

===================
====================

The day when Trump announced he had decided FOR NOW not to push the button... and one of the folks told me about it... I replied:

That's step one. But now can US split Quds from Khamenei and president of iran? Are we so skillful? Or can a serious investigation get going, such as my MBS/Khamenei suggestion with support? What of MB and US Quds?

================================
==========================================
Later, a further discussion on this:


On Fri, Jul 5, 2019 at 1:09 PM ...  wrote:
Paul,
  .. just figured out that MSB means the crown prince of Saudi Arabia. Which reminds me that my understanding of the motives of him and of his counterparts is rather muddled.
  This principally stands on the mystery of the Sunni and Shiite division, the causus belli at the root of this confusion. Why the respective religious leaderships cannot entertain a future with harmony is really beyond me.

I sometimes think of a movie "Being There" recommended to me long ago from an old friend, one of the two or three who was fluent in Aramaic, his native language. It depicts a billionnaire type very well meaning but a bit out of touch with regular life. One of the great pillars of the MB is exactly that kind of money going to old guys out of touch -- and MBS does seem to be quite aware of that.

But Erdogan and many of his minions oppose it very violently and successfully, and folks like France24 somehow swallow what should be such transparent propaganda. We seem blind to 
how serious the internal war is for the soul of Sunni Islam. 

I received some very severe objections today from one of the oil folks working in the Gulf. Can I prove all this more than I have? Well, when I encountered the bad guys (especially shocked on 7/14/14), and learned of many others who had, first hand, a friend urged me to put documentation with lots of detail on the secure web, and make it available to a very few very trusted friends. I really do not plan to get into it, but if I have misjudged how short my leash is as a US citizen not employed by anyone, folks will know. It is not speculation, and understated not exaggerated, 

 

  Some may imagine or even know there are evil motives in the US and Israel to sustain and rip this divide. None more than Israel, cognitively & existentially threatened by the union of two branches of Islam.

Whoever the bad guys are, they exaggerate both Israel and Russia (and play on naive fellow travelers who echo that, and play on Putin's love of being depicted as all powerful) -- just one more distraction technique, not all that original. (Choosing Jews as scapegoats and illusory dreams of empire are SUCH boring Jaws 15 reruns... !!)
 
  It is no doubt the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) has played a long and stealthy game, and it is also no doubt they serve as a stick that stirs the imagination since their covert behaviors, as much of Islam's traditions of taqiyah (systemic lying to protect the faithful), establishes the large theater of conspiracies that plays out widely in South Asia, Africa, and Europe. 
  The hyper-intense surveillance state behavior of China wrt the Uighurs has made 10 or 20 Turkish citizens in China disappear. 
  One may not wonder at that and the larger concentration camps of Uighurs if the tea leaves of the MB are seen in every reading.

Many Chinese do have sources of information other than Fox News, CNN and France24. I remember discussions with them in Xian of what they have tracked traveling along the silk road, and I have been confronted very directly and personally by political operatives from the Middle East in Xinjiang. I still remember when my wife said: "Paul, you have no ability to handle THIS kind of situation. Let ME go out there.." God, I am so grateful she puts up with me.. 

But Han China has its own very serious internal problems. Even as US, Sunni Islam and Iran are at risk from evil subversive internal wolfpacks, China has lots of scary tigers, which remind me a lot of their number one classic novel Journey to the West. They too are caught up in the same global time of troubles, when no one really believes anything seriously, and even MB survives based on its use of minions aiming for money and rape and violence. This and Easter Island are not the only examples in human history of this kind of time of troubles! Spengler discusses misplaced and futile classicism in many decaying civilizations/cultures; it is amusing see to see Maoism and Marxism-Leninism taking over the same role that Hinayana Buddhism had in Journey to the west!!!

And it certainly affects India as well, with many species beyond wolves and tigers, as Ghandhi's resignation warns us. 

 
  It is apparently the case that the Chinese government wants to know what everyone is thinking, or rather, believing. That will provide a satisfactory outcome for stability, the primum bonum of the Party, and no wonder given the MB stealth that you ID.

  On global problems of immigration, the arms merchants of our day are revealed by Hasan Minhaj's Netflix episode on the NRA. The NRA is revealed as the political force promoting gun sales to Central and South America by circumvent of regulations. This pipeline is the one that bad policy built by exporting gang members rather than incarcerating them. 
  The gun trade in the Americas and Africa is similar to the opium trade by the Brits and others in 19th Century China built on the effective enslavement of the Indian producers (read the Ibis Trilogy, Amitav Ghosh).  The mendacious care only for their own wealth, not the pain of others, not the disruption and impoverishment of the exploited African and Central American republics.

When the big animals create chaos, little rats and leeches can have local feasts. I was sad to hear of how certain movie makers may have blocked efforts to create the kind of secure social contract we need on the It side to reduce the criminality (especially bad uses of big money) emerging everywhere...  Dialogue and new foundations MIGHT be enough for us to muddle through.. if we face up to the need for more momentum to get past periods when there is no solution based on any kind of static stability.


As for the Party -- whatever they say, people in China know that they are now primarily the Cocktail Party. Needs a new Journey to the west...










Posted by Dr. PaulJohnW at 10:16 AM No comments:
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