Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Trump's VP options and various miscellany

I have not been watching CNN or France24 as much lately, for many reasons, but
a blip has appeared which feel called to talk about, since it is a very special kind of zinger.

The zinger is that Trump is seriously considering General Flynn as a possible running mate.

Right now, the "smart money" would give better odds to Hillary winning over Trump, but a strong... blip signal.. suggests that Flynn would really improve those odds, not to 50%, but maybe enough to give a real shot.

Part of the reason is that the other VP choices in the news may be one of the reasons why Trump's standing has deteriorated over ... the past month or two. I also wonder whether TV ratings for the presidential race have gone down as well, expressing public feelings about predictable reruns.
(Would a 4-way debate between those two and the libertarian and the green restore ratings a bit,
a bit more novelty, without a net imbalance?) Does Pence really excite the public any more than Jeb Bush did? Is he an omen of decay into the same old entropy? Could Trump clean up the executive branch and the REpublican party, or would he really just drown in them?

Actually, Trump as president reminds me suddenly of things I said when Obama appointed Chu to be secretary of energy. "DOE, I know that dragon very very well. This is like one of those old Chinese stories where a noble good young poor peasant student wins approval from the gods, and is assigned to ride the dragon. But will he ride the dragon or will the dragon just roll over and eat him?" Chu did make a few good changes, but on the whole, the dragon won. The dragon is older and cannier and has developed tricks he did not know. Chu did talk a little about how "the lawyers constrained him."
Lawyers are to some lobbies what hit men have been for the mafia and the sharia billionnaires; really knowing about the hit men and how they are organized and how to deal with them is essential to any hope.

As head of DIA, Flynn probably got closer to knowing about the hit men and the bad things going on now all across the executive branch than any of the others, by far. That would revive what has been a fading hope. But Hillary has at least been one of the (many) targets of the hit men, and her general intelligence and support network make her still the favorite...

The biggest problem is that Flynn's strong support for the Hillary email witch hunt suggests he doesn't know as much about what is going on as one might hope. Ironically, an active push which was intended to increase Trump's chance of election may well be the single biggest factor reducing it!!
Remember when Sanders said "to hell with the emails"? The polls don't tell you the real underlying dynamics here. In my view, he did a lot better after that... until he switched back to DC style entropy... and other threads came into play.

Besides the resources of the "watch," I also have spoken with folks from other agencies and so on who  are deeply worried, and hence not so talkative. When I tried to disentangle who was
liquidating the vision of Vannevar Bush and NSF's lead role in US S&T development...
one set of threads went back directly to Lamar Smith, but another led to... what?... not exactly IBM loyalists but a certain type of computer channel... and if Flynn is not aware of the fact that
some folks want extragovernmental people to give orders to the Secretary of State (and everyone else)   by way of "dot gov"... if he doesn't know what's going on, AND in consequence fully supports it... it suggests for now that Hillary has a better chance of fixing the problem. Not great, but better.

Would there still be a hope for life (literally) if the US simply loses its democracy, and if the next stage is a Clinton Presidency that ends up like Rousseff's? I hope we do not have to face up to that question... but ... whatever...


As Trump talks about Pence a few days later....

I wonder whether he has considered risk of assassination by his newfound friends,
after he sells out? No joke. "W's" wife had stories to tell about Cheney, and there is a certain group of folks in Texas... We will see.

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