Friday, May 17, 2019

stability, criticality, trust and soul

For those of us who believe in soul (defined as a living part of ourselves and our mind which is bigger than the atoms and light of our mundane bodies and brains), and for those who allow for SOME POSSIBILITY that soul may exist, there is an important long-standing question:

How does the INTERFACE of souls and brain(/body) work? 

That big question leads to subquestions, like:

What characteristics of brain, inborn or learned, constant or variable, or of DNA predict or lead to greater manifestation of soul? Can we do experiments in psi which solidify our understanding of these? Can we enhance them?

When, if ever, do horses and other organisms manifest those characteristics?

AND: what happens if we ask all the same questions for "computers" (IT hardware in general) instead of organisms? When do THEY manifest soul? Can we design AIs which are not just conscious and truly intelligent, but also have souls as much as we do?

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I mostly believe (give about 2/3 probability) the noosphere species theory of soul, which I describe in more detail than before in my coming paper in Cosmos and History. In that theory, the training which can expand manifestation of soul, and improved Alchemical marriage, is not just a matter of training or adapting brain. Initiative and learning on the noosphere side is mostly more important. But the questions above remain valid. 

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In my view, the concept of CRITICALITY is essential to answering the questions. 

Some people imagine that consciousness and soul both must all be effects of Bohr type quantum collapse. Like Jack Sarfatti (whom I disagree with on many other things), I find it hard to contain my facial expressions when I hear that "fake news" echoed and echoed. 
We have discussed that endlessly, and may need to discuss it more, just as some of us have to keep addressing the beliefs in Adam and Eve and the beliefs of folks who believe that immolation themselves in front of family planning clinics is a way to affirm life. But for now, let's push beyond that.

Many of us have come to feel that CRITICALITY (ala Per Bak or Kadanoff or Arnold, related a bit to the phase transition and neuropercolation and transition ideas of Freeman and Kozma) is a big part of the answer. crudely, that the soul enters at the edge of chaos. Criticality actually can be a KIND of quantum effect (more like Wiener's shot noise idea than anything Heisenberg ever said), but it also can be classical. For me, this is a practical issue, not so much a metaphysical kind of thing. Basically, if brains or computers operate in a regime of high sensitivity, they can be more sensitive to soul, and soul can more easily engage. That's the idea. And, if it is true, it should be as true for computers as for brains. 
For computers, are we facing a kind of three way choice between artificial stupidity (AS, what most large It systems exhibit today), artificial intelligence (AI), and Aψ, AI with soul? 

Oversimplified -- is our cosmos ruled by a holy trinity of carbon, silicon and dark matter? 
Have noospheres evolved to make a kind of optimal balanced use of carbon and silicon both, at varying stages of its life cycle? Which is safer for us: building a robust but unintelligent global cybersphere, with a new global social contract for apps hardwired into the emerging internet of things (IOT), or pushing ahead as fast as possible to get to Aψ before mundane AI and AS go too far? Is it time to let loose and really push the accelerator?

Anyone who is reasonably sane, after thinking about those questions, will naturally ask about two follow-ons; (1) how do we get an acceptable level of STABILITY here, to minimize all kinds of risks especially in the transition times?; and (2) which specific parts of a brain or of a "computer brain" manifest a high degree of criticality, typically, or in good designs?

Re (2), there are a couple of natural injection points for stochastic effects in an intelligent system as advanced as a mammal or a reptile. One is the full reconstruction of reality, over space time, which basically is what manages the outputs of the giant pyramid cells outputting our current "image (or reconstruction or inner representation) of reality; at an advanced level, it may be seen as something like trained particle filtering, a relative of the SEDP architecture I published in 1990 and patented. (Chapter 13 of HIC is one of the items posted at www.werbos.com/Mind.htm, which I need to update). The other is "dreaming" as in coming up with states to use to train the Critic (aka value function) networks of the brain. 
Two systems which are highly sensitive by nature, and which do have some reputation for association with psi. (I interpret almost all "astral travel" experiences as interactions through the 'dreaming" circuits.) 

The issue of stability and criticality is important to the human development of psi as well. 
It comes back to the good old challenge of opening the doors of perception to their full capacity, but not more. Of course, that is related to the old challenge in communications like this of pushing to the limits of the bandwidth but not exceeding it. Please forgive if I have pushed too far today, but... we will see.

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I did not say much about trust here! But in fact, issues of trust have been a major factor inhibiting me in these and other directions. There is so much growing "war of all against all" lately that my brief words about social contract, motivated by thinking about Pareto versus Nash equilibria and about aging mechanisms, reflect a lot more thought and a lot more experience with what is going on in so many places.

Quick summary of our trip last February/March to Argentina, Brazil, Caribbean

Two intelligent people from our Pacific cruise last year asked about the new cruise we took this year. 
Our response:

It was great to hear from you. Luda and I were hoping to stay in touch with you, but life has never settled down yet since we flew back from Tahiti. We keep saying to ourselves: "NEXT week will be calmer and more ordinary." I HAVE had time to keep up with a couple of odd but interesting discussion lists, Bionoetics and Foundations of Mind, which sometimes get into the work of Karl Pribram and other things which might or might not interest you, but who knows?

But: on to your immediate question. 

We flew out February 17 towards Buenos Aires and returned home March 25 from Fort Lauderdale, for the final segment of an 80 day cruise on the Prinsendam from Fort Lauderdale to Antarctic back to Fort Lauderdale.  We didn't expect to do another long cruise so soon after the Pacific one, but Luda saw a great deal on this segment and we have always wanted to see the Amazon. We also got an upgrade which was not quite as cheap as I had hoped, but still not bad, to a great room ("suite") with a very large porch overlooking the flagpole of the back of the ship. 

One reason we decided to do this crazy thing was that our two previous HAL cruises were so satisfying intellectually. As you know, HAL EXC was really great in the Pacific. Our previous HAL cruise to Alaska was not technically EXC, but was pretty much the same. This was also listed as an EXC cruise. 

We are very glad we took this cruise. It was the right decision. There were lots of pros and cons, however. The EXC part was far inferior to the guest lecturers on the previous cruise. The high school teacher who told us how to see the stars, and when our shadows would be the smallest, was friendly and easy to understand, but not exactly like a university class. the woman who would tell tall tales of ghosts and other woo-woo stuff was at a similar level; Luda would not want to be within a 100 meters of her, though I got a little amusement value from it. We did not bother with the random comedians and such. There was one youngish EXC employee, Heather, who did a noble and useful role of trying to make up for ALL of the real content; her talks were quite interesting, and she made a point of really exploring all the ports, but her background was mechanical engineering not anthropology and such. Practical, nice, reasonably friendly,  but not Al Trujillo plus Toby in one. (That's for lectures on these places. I can see that her friends would be lucky to be her friend.) 

On the other hand, the small size of the ship and the large number of people doing 80 days raised the intellectual and practical level of discussions with other passengers. When we chose sharing in the dining room, we still got stuck about half the time with folks who only wanted to talk about their deserts and such, but there were also pretty serious learning experiences, and we even met a guy who could cooperate about 50-50 with Luda in arranging heroic and great port adventures. Those port adventures and some nights looking at the stars were >90% of the real value for me, but without Luda's leadership the port visits would have been far less worthwhile. 

If you are interested, I can send you the link to my vast photo albums for Argentina and Brazil. For the final leg, in the Caribbean, I posted smaller, selected photo albums on facebook, with extensive commentary. There was much more to comment on in Argentina and Brazil,  but that's why I never had the time. Still, we sent some emails to our friends from there and would be happy to forward to you if you are interested. We did not take a single ship tour; the ones Luda found were not only cheaper but better, in almost all cases. 
(Maybe we would have enjoyed the performance in Parinthins , Boi bumbo (sp?), which the ship arranged, but that's the only possible exception I can think of.) I especially remember the airbnb tour guide in Buenos Aires who turned out to be a real professor of law and economics working with the Congress of Argentina, who gave us a VERY professional briefing, and Pierre Schwartz of Santarem (biggest city on Amazon proper) whose life story was as interesting as the great places he took us to. (He friended me on facebook.) But the others were all pretty amazing too. 

There were a couple of powerful dance shows on the ship, and a liberal ship rabbi who gave a couple of interesting small public talks, married to a world class bioethicist who actually did therapy for her clients by video conference somehow on the ship. We only bought a few days of ship wifi; for local wifi and telephone, it was FAR worse than on the Pacific cruise. I did not even take my cellphone to some of the big cities for security reasons. 

I'd be happy to discuss more, but this email is probably long enough. 

Sunday, May 12, 2019

A simple meditation which is more than it seems





The bare recipe: stand at various points in the National Arboretum and say to yourself:
“I/we am life waking up.” More detail: in places full of life and energy all over the world, from the Amazon jungle to churches to the Museum of the Future in Rio de Janeiro, I have worked to really tune in to the web of people and energy and ideas. Often, when I feel fully connected, I then articulate a sentence or a few key sentences, connected to a kind of powerful energy, and let them resonate through me and beyond, echoing as I  can. Sentences constructed very carefully, accompanied by highly controlled thoughts, because the slightest distortion or dishonesty or wrong context could be bad.
Here in DC, amidst a complex maelstrom of thoughts and goals and obstacles to deal with, it is easy to get disoriented. To control that, and keep from losing his balance, Obama would often say: “If we DO THAT (or don’t do this), it’s not who we are.” But who are we? Our deepest sense of identity is really basic to our sense of balance and what we really do. I remember when we visited some small secluded waterfalls in Ilha Bella in Brazil, how we could progressively become more and more in tune with the life around us, at more and more levels, culminating in a deep echoing of the resolution: “I am life.” And yes, one part of that is an intellectual determination not to neglect a truthful, skeptical but serious analysis of what we should and could do about deeper issues of climate change. But more obvious issues of war and peace and proper use of technology will also affect the life around us.
In a way, this is a follow up to my new paper “The Phenomenon of Man, Revised” forthcoming in Cosmos and History.
This photo was taken on Saturday, after an incredibly intense week involving neural networks, Amazon and other issues. We needed a break on Saturday, and my body needed some exercise for the sake of health. All week, I struggled to stay “in the zone,” a kind of intense conscious focus which in some ways is a step up from simpler states like Samadhi or cosmic consciousness. So Saturday I said: “OK, let me be in the zone, on our physical biological reality for a change.” Levitin has a great book, The Organized Mind, which talks about the need for balance: the need to focus intensely, to SHIFT focus in a conscious way, and to have times of more relaxed and broader receptivity. So there are times to be intensely in the zone with one’s physical body and with the life around.
On Saturday, doing this, I started by repeating what I had ended with on Ilha bella (Brazil): “I am life.” But all those plants… nice… but… more my identity, I next thought: “OK, let’s make it, I am conscious life.” But no, not’s just throw out those plants or less conscious animals. So that leads to “waking up”, which unites us all more, and better reflects the (revised) noosphere picture. I or we? Since it isn’t spoken words, it is easy enough to just combine the words “I” and “we” into one word.
Some meditators would ask: “What about your breathing?” Well, I did breathe as I was doing this. There is a kind of natural resonance between different aspects of our being, such that physical breathing CAN be coupled to flows of qi, but only if one is relaxed enough or natural enough to hold on to that natural resonance. Formal ritualistic stuff tends to break that connection, and end in stiff empty gestures of no value. That happens with all kinds of meditation and ritual. Really “being there” in a forest comes naturally, but I still remember hiking in the White Mountains when I was young, occasionally seeing strange adults who looked as out place as a jerky robot in… a place of intense biological activity.

Two years ago, in Nepal, I ran across a woman very active in hard core progressive politics in her country, but also deeply connected to yoga and spiritual activities. She asked: ”How can I reconcile these parallel lives, when most of the people I work with back home are such very tough skeptics?” My suggestion: try to get meetings where people sing “We are the earth,” and really mean it, and really feel it. (With good musicians?) Mean it not just as a fashion statement but as a deep, real, truthful and loving commitment, with all of the questions and complexity and dialogue it calls for.  

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Yesterday, after I posted the message above, the Alabama legislature passed the worst abortion bill since Roe v Wade.
In my (rather well-considered) view, that is one of the very most destructive examples of fake news in recent years. Yesterday I posted another example: https://www.facebook.com/paul.werbos/posts/2427888847241518
As I posted that, I thought of yet another example, the many florid imaginative theories out there about the history, nature and future of machine learning. There is so much fake news out there that it is hard to know where to begin.

When I was young, I remember historians telling us the importance of primary sources, of not just trusting the histories written hundreds of years later "written by the victors." I kind of assumed that this was less of an issue now, when there is so much information around and when so many people have worked so hard to find the truth about history. But now, direct experience tells me the opposite. Again and again, all over the world, I have learned from primary sources that the stories we tell each other in all the developed world are often.. rather different from reality. A kind of fake news.

Why does fake news spread so easily? It is a deep and general problem, though I will go back to the right to life movement as an example... after some general thoughts:

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To the bionoetics group I wrote:

There are certain pervasive aspects of human mass psychology which really, seriously depress me, and make me wonder what hope there is for this species to stay alive.

One which I discussed on another list was "fake news." That came up in discussion of Easter Island, for which people are very deeply attached to made up stories which persist even though we now know they are false. Fake news was a serious problem long before Russian hackers entered the scene.

But another is what I think of as "reactive thinking," where communities reject reality but have no substitute.

I have not been dogmatic about believing in realism. My paper in Activitas states that I attribute 1/3 probability each to two very well defined forms of realism 
(Einsteinian realism and Fock space realism), but I do also attribute 1/3 to "ultraweirdism," and even give most attention there to the idea of cosmic mind Idealism (CMI), which you seem to be alluding to.

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Today I would add.. confusion of symbol with reality is also one of the major general causes. That first jarred me back around 1969, when stories first started appearing in the press about a possible issue with CO2. One day a TV news piece would say that CO2 problems could cause vast problems, and the next day people would declare serious energy and practical can-do response by picking up old cans from the side of the road. Picking up cans was a way to signal solidarity with the environment, but what does it do for CO2? If people project the idea that this is THE way to respond, that i is a solution, that's very sad. A kind of dress up game? Likewise, calling the antiabortion movement "prolife" is the same kind of thing, but much much worse. (I see cartoons of people saying "We believe in the  Bible. And in the Bible Jesus tells how important it is to stone women..." Or, for the H2S threat from climate, "The  Bible tells us that God would never let destroy us with fire and brimstone... So MANY forms of fake news..!). 

Fake news is not new, and crude overreactions which make the problem worse are not new either. It is a very serious intellectual issue how it would be possible to design communication systems which at least reduce the problem, without trying to impose specific views of specific rulers on the world. At times, in discussing computer networks, i have said: "We need brains AND an immune system to have much chance of survival." Some things need to be complex, while things which get hard-wired need to be "simple". (Simple like general relativity...)







And it helps morale when it has a lot of ups and downs lately, as news goes up and down.

One big downer this morning: France24 announced Zuckerberg made a promise to Macron that he will be more strict in future.
one unacceptable post, and that person is banned forever. Since I HAD one unacceptable post (banned because I agreed with MBS over erdogan on one point, and provided citations), I suppose I must plan for future radio silence. Also Whats App: priv ate converstaions which are politically unacceptable will be banned, and if they cannot be monitored, stopped anyway. 






Sunday, April 28, 2019

Are there really multiple copies of you and me out there in the multiverse?

Last week, in my new paper in Springer journal,  https://rdcu.be/bxnjY, I explained why I am 50-50 undecided in the end whether to believe in "quantum realism,"as in the mainstream theory of Everett, Wheeler and Deutsch. That theory is the foundation of modern digital quantum computing, which harnesses the power of "Schrodinger cats" to work together "across universes."

But does that really apply to US?

I have done some rethinking of that question this week. Here is what I posted for the benefit of normal "experts" this week, followed by a link to a little bit of real stuff:


All of us need to re-examine and question our own beliefs from time to time. This morning, I have been asking myself (and my wife) what do I REALLY believe about macroscopic Schrodinger cats, and how should I update 
my beliefs? How certain am I that there are multiple copies of myself, with very different memories?

What I said to her initially this morning was: yes, I only assign 1/3 probability to each of Einsteinian realism, Fock space realism and ultraweirdism. (By the way, my new paper in Activitas -- thanks, Stan! -- states that clearly),
BUT I assign about 90% to the idea that WE -- we mundane human body/brain creatures -- are macroscopic Schrodinger cats. Whether you believe in Einstein, QM of ultraweirdism, in all three cases we need to face up to the experiments supporting quantum superposition, including the very important experiment led by Pan Jianwei proving that quantum superposition works at the distance between China and Austria. 

But how could we reconcile macroscopic Schrodinger cats with Einsteinian realism? If there inhabit only ONE 3+1-D universe, how could there be more than one of us? How sure are we of what is going on? What do we really know, from the viewpoint of Einstein realism (or lightly modified Einstein realism)?

 Before 2014, I held to what I called "the right-wing reactionary position on macroscopic Schrodinger cats" (as I discussed this with my wife this morning). (She has two PhDs to my one, so this is not like talking to the wall.) 
The reactionary position is that there can only be ONE of each of us, because there is only one 3+1-D reality, and that quantum superposition is basically a statistical illusion which only works at small scales. 
The Schrodinger equation which predicts branching must somehow break down, must actually be an approximation which breaks down, at a large enough scale. "the great mystery," they declare, "is what is the scale at which the Schrodinger equation breaks down, the dividing line between the quantum world and the classical world which we actually live in?" I have heard from poor vedantists who just parroted that question, as if the mainstream was asking it. But certainly, after experiments like those of Pan Jianwei, the mainstream view is that the Schrodinger equation which gives way to quantum superposition does NOT break down at large distances, and that we have no reason to believe that it ever breaks down. This morning, I pulled out my little tablet computer in the bedroom, went to scholar.google.com, and showed her the classic papers by Anthony Leggett on this subject.

Still, even within this mainstream (which I have 90% drifted into myself), there are left, right and middle sides of the stream. On the right, people say "This could not possibly ever apply to humans like me.  
It's all about statistics. Since I am complex, and decoherence is so pervasive, the probability distribution for versions of me must be very narrow. I am me, just me, just one me, it cannot be otherwise." Smolin's VERY important new book (which Jack ought to be quoiting more than he quotes Sutherland and Price, since Smolin is broader and closer in many ways to Jack in his beliefs) is actually more towards the middle of the stream, even though he supports Einstein more than I do. The middle of the stream CONSIDERS that the right stream might be right, but are not so sure. At one point, Smolin effectively asks: "OK, there might be more than one of me, but if we live in separate universes/streams, how could it be EFFECTIVELY true for me in this universe/stream? For all practical purposes..." But on the left part of this stream are David Deutsch and me, among others. Deutsch said "it IS important because we can integrate across streams and produce a new kind of technology, which I call the quantum universal computer." (It's really sad how the Oprah and fake news sets want to give credit to THEIR man, and thereby lose the whole foundation of the whole thing!) And I have drifted into the belief that I am a macroscopic Schrodinger cat in a real sense (war cry "Meow!"), for several reasons.

But what are the reasons, how sure am I, and how to reconcile with Einsteinian realism?

What happened to me in 2014 was just as jarring as the precognition experience of 1967 was, but this was not a psi kind of thing. As I worked out the equations for the CMRFp model of a photon going through polarized sunglasses  (See  Werbos, P.J.: Stochastic path model of polaroid polarizer for Bell’s Theorem and triphoton experiments. Int. J. Bifurc. Chaos 25(3), 1550046 (2015)), it struck me how the photon has THREE choices at each moment, according to my version of time-symmetric physics: (1) to conform to what the sunglasses "want," and thus be absorbed and never heard of again; (2) to become defiant, to jump to an orientation exactly perpendicular to what the sunglasses want, and thus be ejected and emitted with no further ado; or (3) to "stick out its tongue" (by changing its score on Z, a kind of destiny variable) and declare it doesn't want to be in this situation in the first place, in a way which changes the past by making it less likely that this scenario will actually become real.

At that time, I was in a weird and sudden polarizing situation in the US government, something as bad as Bannon's (and Jack's) worst nightmare. I found myself thinking: "Why do I have only the first two options? Am **I** less powerful than a lonely photon?" And then it hit me: maybe I AM as powerful as a photon! And just as much a CONFIGURATION within a larger cosmos. After all, the Schrodinger equation, whether statistical or not, still works at the macroscopic level, and our consciousness is all a matter of configuration.

How could one reconcile that with Einsteinian realism? First, it is a stretch. Immediately I reduced my subjective probability of Einstein realism from 90% to 1/3. But Fock space realism and ultraweirdism are also great stretches, and also require a bit of adjusting from the older versions. 

My immediate response was to say: "we" are analogous, in a way, to the conscious creatures which emerge in a computer-simulated world. (That's an important old idea, repeated in the movie the Matrix, in science fiction by Baxter, and even some musings by Elon Musk they say. And a great story in the anthology Far Futures.)  We are not the one true reality. reality exists, but we are not it. We are like the shadows in Plato's cave.
A great Eureka moment.

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But: is it true? More precisely, does it fit the math of Lagrange-Euler equations (the normal mainstream version of Einsteinian realism), or should we change the model a little? And again, are we really 90% sure of the left-stream version of macroscopic Schrodinger cats? 

"What is the 'ontology'?" Smolin uses the word "ontology" to refer to something meaningful to physicists: the specification of "beables" as in specifying the mathematical space and functions defined over that space which the Lagrange-Ruler equations are assumed to operate over. Philosophers seem to refer to something more "woo-woo" in nature, as in "which of these is really real?" Well, now, if "we" are just possible configurations of those "beable" fields, how real are WE? If we are not configurations of the ACTUAL final solution of the Lagrange-Euler equations, but of possibilities, are we assuming that ALL such possibilities are "real" to the same extent that we are? Not so simple.

For a mathematician (or a devotee of fuzzy logic ala Lotfi Zadeh), there is an obvious way to try to compromise here. We could imagine (an ontological theory??) the idea that "all these possible configurations of the beable fields across space-time are real, but to VARYING degrees or VARYING probability."

In fact, that is exactly what my 2015 paper (in a journal for applied mathematics) discusses in quantitative terms:
Werbos, P.J.: Stochastic path model of polaroid polarizer for Bell’s Theorem and triphoton experiments. Int. J. Bifurc. Chaos 25(3), 1550046 (2015)) 

But here is a zinger:

That ends up being more like the older Feynmann and the older Schwinger than like Einstein. All those discussions of quantum theory by philosophers like Jack tend to look UP to something like canonical quantum field theory, like what gave those guys the Nobel prize in the 1950s. But, like Wittgenstein or E.O. Wilson, those guys did not just ossify after their initial work. They proposed reformulating quantum field theory to be a thoery over 3+1-D space, like Einstein, but STOCHASTIC in a way. 

And so,if we say that we here are "REAL"but are macroscopic Schrodinger cats, that leads to a stochastic reformulation of the Einstein viewpoint which in many ways is more quantum than classical. the main difference in my version is that it is based on PROBABILITIES rather than PROBABILITY AMPLITUDES, which is frankly more coherent mathematically. And all of these are observer-free models. (I am tempted to mention other models of similar flavor, but this is  already far enough away from the philosopher's beat.) Is this still Einsteinian realism, even with "dice included"?  It's not your grandmother's Fock space. 

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But: how sure are we? And where are those dice anyway?

To allow as much as a 30% probability that true Einsteinian realism (without dice) could be true, logically I should not be 90% sure that we are really macroscopic Schrodinger cats. So am I really 90% sure? What is it based on?

In part, it is based on new designs which give a path to reduce decoherence and CREATE macroscopic Schrodinger cats. My main reason for not saying more is that I find more and more reason to be less trusting. 

But one simplified version.  Suppose we go ahead and implement a backwards time telegraph. Would it create branches and work naturally, or would it create a phenomenal "weirdness generator"? Until we do the experiment, we do not know.

Best of luck,   Paul 

P.S. Looking at the present state of this planet, I could not justify ruling out the"weirdness generator" hypothesis. 


http://vixra.org/abs/1904.0533

Monday, April 1, 2019

Consciousness, intelligent systems and Brexit

Last week (as appended far below) , I had some intense discussions with folks in UK and Ireland about Brexit, which is at a critical point of choice right now. here is what I sent them this morning, after some further meditation: 

Before, I noted that there is a fundamental flaw in the decision systems which led to the present debacle, and failed to give a better, creative understanding of the options and of what the public really wants.
This is really serious and fundamental. In Neural networks 2009  (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0893608009000501), I noted that the "mass action" learning rules of the human neocortex appear to be based on TWO measures of the quality of output of the cortex: (1) accuracy of the PREDICTIONS of the thalamo-cortico-thalamic System (TCT); and (2) value of the OPTIONS for decision and action which the cortex sends to the basal ganglia, a part of the brain whose higher-level importance has come to light in recent decades. The information system which feeds into Parliament clearly has not been optimizing (2). That is due in part to how the option creators did not have input form a cause-and-effect (predictive) understanding of what the public wants; The INTEGRATION of (1) and (2) is what makes mammals different from their ancestors; the folding together of two hree-level coftices into one six-layer cortex is the essence of the evolution of the mammal brain. Parliament has not yet reached that level.

Before I speculated that worries about immigration are one of the REAL concerns of the public; brexit was supported only as a means to that end, and a better way to serve that end could have been found (a better set of options, certainly to include more dialogue with Italy among others to better address this common problem). 
.
All of that still stands,  but I feel embarrassed that I failed to mentioned another hugely important  fundamental aspect here. Another reason for the public to vote for brexit is a growing MISTRUST of trade agreements all over the world. Whatever else you can say about Elizabeth Warren, she certainly has articulated that powerful current of public feeling; see the link posted at https://www.facebook.com/paul.werbos/posts/2278196938877377 . The public is not REALLY arguing against economists who say that trade is essential to the level of prosperity in our world. Rather, they feel that the actual AGREEMENTS which implement grade are rigged in a way which hurts people. that's how Trump got elected -- though I wish people had listed more to my Senator, Time Kaine of Virginia, who got a level closer to the truth in HIS speeches for the Vice President debates. There really is a deep problem of trust which is frankly well-justified. The challenge is to modify all trade agreements so that they not ONLY achieve the kind of Pareto optimality which economists study but ALSO meet some kind of standard of transparent fairness -- which also requires some kind of agreement or conscious mutual acquiescence to some concept of fairness, INCLUDING the kind of assurance Kaine talked about, that the theoretical agreements will not be subverted by faulty, biased or corrupt implementation machineries. Absent trust, exit. 

Many in Virginia feel it is a shame that Kaine himself does not seem to be a plausible candidate for 2020! 

But looking ahead: What if, in the future, trade agreements are enforced by IT systems, and if the dialogues which give input to Parliament are also implemented on IT? What if we might inject some intelligence, and even some level of consciousness and soul into such IT systems or to the human/computer aggregate system in which the IT provides the backbone? How do we ensure the fairness of such systems? How we devise transparent fundamental rules to be implemented in the IT backbones?

In discussing this informally with my wife this morning, I explained the core issues as follows. To survive, an organism needs BOTH a brain AND an immune system (and other stuff of course). The same goes for our entire species, and even our entire noosphere. The immune system include some relatively less intelligent rules across the board. In a way, the Ten Commandments could be seen as a Gen 1 attempt to create rules/social-contract to m ake more intelligence and growth possible, on a firm foundation. I view the Constitutoin of the US as kind of Gen 2 of the Ten Commandments (yes, more sacred to me than the Gen 1 version), a little longer, very carefully designed with a certain amount of authentic spiritual input (admittedly, some in an Irish bar in Philadelphia for which my family kept those bar bills, but some in Scottish rite lodges and so on). But now, in the age of IT, we need to move on to some kind of Gen 3, specifically in IT. It is not a simple task, and it worries me that today's IT and trading systems may be eroded away by termites, like an old wooden building,  before we have a more robust steel structure to replace it, a structure designed so that life and soul may thrive inside. 

This is no small matter. But even Brexit is not a small matter. If only the EU had had the kind of dialogue it needs to address these vital concerns more effectively, making brexit itself unnecessary and moot! Too many termites at work already, at risk of turning all of Europe into what termites leave behind. 

(By the way, I do have a couple of nice photos of termite nests in the seven albums of images and explanation which I put onto Facebook this past week. That post on the nature of afterlife was just one of seven, based on the Caribbean. Perhaps someday I will also post photos from Brazil, including the Amazon,  but the issues there were too complex for this kind of list or Facebook this month.)

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i do hope that this would warm the heart of my old PhD thesis advisor, Karl Deutsch of Harvard, author of books which helped CREATE the EU, but also author of the Nerves of Government, which argued that neural network ways of thinking should be applied to understand how states and other organizations could actually work. 

The facebook posts I mentioned, which get very deep into actionable esoterica, are at:

Devil's island:
Barbados:
Curacao:
Aruba:
Bequia:
OOps re swimming with sharks (related to a previous HAL cruise):
And reflections on our fate which grew in my mind during the cruise:


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Just FYI: here was my earlier post to my friends on this subject:

A few months back, many professional psychiatrists were excited to see how many people, watching what unfolds on CNN these days, validated the importance of their profession in understanding what is really going on in the world. Are policies being warped in damaging ways by narcissistic and psychopathic personalities, fitting blatant textbook models of obsession with their organs or overuse of psychological mechanisms like denial (as described in the beautiful important work by Valliant in his longitudinal study of Harvard graduates). Even as I type this, they tell me that Rand Paul wants to start an investigation of Obama... and I react by saying there is a lot to investigate, not by lawyers, but by... other approaches. 

But now: Brexit offers us a truly rich case history today, this past week, combining four elements great for researcher: (1) the database of the past week is public enough and structured enough that comparative analysis is possible; (2)  the bottom line that things are going grossly dysfunctional seems relatively clear as such things go; (3) the dysfunction does involve a variety of important and general issues in systems theory, management, free will, rationality and so on; and (4) if folks don't find a way to get out of the box, fast, the damage could be very great indeed. Unlike some of the more intractable case examples I see in the US and China, the dysfunction seems mainly a matter of well-educated, well-meaning and relatively sane people somehow not being able to make things work. But psychiatry does also have something to contribute, to any realistic integrated holistic understanding.

The indicative votes held yesterday  really imptessed me emotionally, a bit like a kind of Greek tragedy without the clarity of a Sophocles play (but certainly with a few fatal flaws in play). The leadership of Commons really tried hard to work at a systems level, not dictating the outcome (as tyrants try to do), hoping that a workable way forward would emerge. But people could not agree. In discussions of a second referendum, social psychologists were equally baffled, seeing no way to phrase the questions in a way which would lead to clarity; that is a major part of why the idea of a second referendum did not win an indicative vote, even though it came closest of anything.

My naive knee-jerk reaction was "Haven't any of these folks read Ken Arrow, Thomas Jefferson, Locke or Schelling, let alone Raiffa or Von Neumann? Isn't this a case where stronger systems theory and understanding of intelligent systems might have shown them a way to escape from the swamp?"

More precisely.. Thomas Jefferson wrote many things. One was something called "the Jefferson Manual," a book of parliamentary procedures intended to allow an institution like Congress or Parliament to actually work. It was a foundation stone of a major serious intellectual effort to address the kind of value or utility aggregation challenge discussed at lenth by Ken Arrow (Arrow voting paradoxes) in the real world. When people do not agree, how can we build a system which nonetheless avoids the worst, and which improves the chances of attaining some kind of Pareto optimal outcome (an issue which Von Neumann and Raiffa explained far more clearly than older writers who neglected the basic fact of human uncertainty and limited knowledge, a fact which is central to neural network mathematics and statistics). 

Knee-jerk reaction...

I remembered three-way elections in scientific societies, where no one candidate or program could get a majority. There is a reasonable, well-known practical way forward, "n choice" voting. The cleanest version is to ask each identify his or her first choice, second choice, third choice, and so on if there are more choices.  Then the lowest choices are removed and votes reallocated from first choice and so on. It may not be metaphysically or ontologically perfect, but its simplicity is already hugely important, as Schelling's book Strategy of Conflict, should allow people to understand. So I wondered: don't the parliamentarians in the House of Commons know about that? Don't they know how to structure votes designed to get SOMETHING passed? US Congressional leaders in years past have not done exactly that, but they have known at times how to structure procedural motions which then had a similar effect. (But again there are other problems at work leading to dysfunction in the area where I live.) 

But beyond the knee-jerk reaction:

Systems level thinking, looking for workable procedures, trying to fashion institutions and rules of the road which themselves are like intelligent systems, is not a complete silver bullet... or at least, not when it focuses on higher level decision systems without getting "down and dirty" to analyze the systems which give input to the decision systems, and which engage with concrete reality testing. Brexit is a great illustration of that complexity as well. In fact, one could get very down and very dirty in any honest realistic discussion of brexit politics, but for now, just a couple of aspects... after a general comment at the systems level.

People are often confused by the issue of "following the right procedure" versus "doing what is right concretely." This challenge is very similar to the challenge of putting together a higher-level econometric model which does not specific the narrow technical facts on the ground, but is able to capture a wide variety of possibilities. I described in detail how to do that, based on successful first hand experience, in  Werbos, Paul J. "Econometric techniques: Theory versus practice." Energy 15.3-4 (1990): 213-236./EIAeconometrics.pdf. In a way, the job of the parliamentarian is to concoct a procedural bill very much in the way I constructed econometric models, not getting so down and dirty, but AFTER a very intensive effort to scope out the range of possibilities for concrete facts at the down and dirty level. ("The weeds.") This requires parallel efforts to scope out what those folks call "the weeds." This reminds me of how the power of the mammal brain over its immediate ancestors is the circuitry to map out the SPACE OF POSSIBILITIES.

The issue of how to design a second referendum is a very serious intellectual issue, a key part of mapping out the space of possibilities more completely and intelligently.  It was just as much a source of dysfunction here as parliamentary procedures themselves. The approach used by normal professional pollsters suggested a lot of sheer incoherence,  craziness and randomness out there in the public. But perhaps a professional psychiatrist or a decision analyst like Riaffa could have helped in providing a richer mechanism for getting input from the public, through questions intended to explore a variety of choices and uncover what really matters to people in the end.

Here I have my own speculation, my own thought about ONE of the possibilities which should be considered in the map. Could it be that the mainstream people in the middle did not want out of Europe so much as they wanted out of Merkel's glowing but risky policies on immigration? Did they really want Mexit, exit from merkel's immigration policies? Would they have been happy to stay in the EU if changes in policies for immigration from outside the EU (and policies for determining citizenship) were tightened up, in a wide variety of possible ways? Could a deep understanding of the concerns of the British public show some points of commonality with voters in OTHER EU nations, which might allow a balance of forces far better for UK and EU than the crazy trainwreck now in progress? 
But a proper second referendum would include this kind of issue as just ONE of the issues to be probed. And perhaps it could be done as a step towards creating a more real time online dialogue, which Macron has advocated for France but does not know how to create from a technical point of view. In the end, god help us, sustainability might depend on making room for even deeper "weeds," such an unbreakable operating systems to support fair systems of constructive online dialogue, a serious issue in intelligent systems design, way beyond what facebook now even imagines doing. 



Best of luck. We need it, here and now and in the long-term both.




Saturday, March 30, 2019

Will YOU and I become Coco or Sian Kaan?

 

Today (Monday, 3/25/2019) is our first day back after a five week cruise to Argentina, Brazil and the Caribbean which included more than a week up the Amazon. We experienced many many things, but the choice in these pictures dominated everything.
          Most of the people on this cruise were retired. In fact, most were taking an 80 day grand cruise from Florida to Antarctic to Florida. Retirement, old age and death ALL lead to this same question about what happens to me, and what happens to others. Do we “just have fun” (or just play meaningless games) and gradually disintegrate away like the skeletons in fancy dress, like the people in the brilliant children’s movie Coco? Or do we grow up to the heavens like the sacred tree of the Mayans, the Sian Kaan? We certainly saw people going in both directions on this cruise. The older I get, and the more I understand about how these things really work, the more I see it as exactly this kind of choice. It is a serious choice we cannot escape.
      Of course our world is full of people who just “know” that this could not be the choice we are facing. In my plenary talk on conscious and machine intelligence last April (slides at http://www.werbos.com/Tucson2018.pdf and talk included in video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5QxhYner7U ) I began my summary with a quote from Mark Twain: “It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” That happens again and again in all human cultures, from island tribes to branches of science and religion. Even as a child, I wondered how people could have so much conviction about THEIR tribe’s beliefs when so many other tribes were equally convinced about something else, with about the same level of justification. Again and again, I have also seen how powerful organizations try to sell themselves by simplifying, by pushing people into simple black and white choices. In today’s world, people have mostly gravitated to two possibilities about afterlife – either it is a total fraud, or you wake up your same old self unchanged, on your way to absolute perfection of pain or joy or reincarnation.
      It really made me sad last year to see certain Hindu theologians taking strong measures, as strong as certain believers in Adam and Eve, to defend the dogma that the “you” who experiences astral travel or death is exactly the same “you” as the one in everyday life. In MY everyday life, I have learned more and more to understand the differences between the “me” thinking clearly in the early morning and the “me” late at night most nights, especially after a bit of alcohol. In fact, after the sail away party with unlimited free margaritas, I remember the feeling of having hardly any functioning brain at all and operating my body and words as one would operate a puppet from a great distance – and I remember others in the same state who were less functional.
   Logic once told me, based on limited first person experience, that afterlife is total BS, that what you see is what you get. In the airport on the way home, I received an email saying that my paper explaining how I changed my views has been formally accepted by Activitas Nervosa Superior (a Springer journal), in a special issue on consciousness. In essence, inescapable first person experience showed me that life is not so simple, but that we can still explain our experience and what we read in history WITHOUT abandoning logic and science, WITHOUT becoming mindless followers of some randomly selected tribal culture.

It fits science much better to assume that we are what Dante called “half beast half angel,” a symbiosis or alchemical marriage between familiar brain intelligence and another type of intelligence rooted in a different kind of platform. (I think of that platform as organized “dark matter,” which is not a specific type of particle but a general way which physics uses to admit that more than 80% of the cosmos is almost totally unknown to us as yet). If you and I are alchemical marriages, what happens when the angel gets to be a widow or widower?

This more scientific viewpoint, less black-and-white than today’s theologies, is actually much closer to the ancient beliefs of places like Mexico, dating back to the days before various emperors manipulated them. Once again, I highly recommend that everyone should see the happy children’s movie Coco, which does a brilliant job of explaining that culture, a culture which is much more totally true than most of the cultures with power today. The movie is correct in depicting certain technical details which I could even give you an equation for, but blogs are not the right place for equations. Still, I can give you a hint in words. Survival in Coco depends on a flow of some kind of emotional energy, like what Freud called “psychic energy,” like “qi” or “mana”, like the backpropagation flows which govern the changes made over time in ANY intelligent network. For the dead people in Coco, their survival depends on a flow of qi from a primary source, the world of the living; when it dries up, THEY dry up and dissolve into powder, like a certain passage in the Book of Esdras (a book in the modern Catholic bible we have at home  but not in the King James bible). On the cruise, I certainly saw some rich people showing signs of dissolving away into powder, kept alive mainly by connections to their grandchildren.

This way of thinking was not just in Mexico. Gavriel Kaye has written great novels conveying the old culture of China. Even under Confucius and Meng Tzu (“Mencius”), the assumptions and practices were very much like Coco, until a famous “reformer” Zhu Xi, catering to a power-driver emperor, redefined the state religion. (Many people in China blame its current problems on Jiang Zemin, the latest great secular reformer, but I blame them more on Zhu Xi. Both offered a mix of great new positive insights and great new dangerous oversimplifications.) Even Mormons might see something they agree with in Coco. Much of East Asia still maintians that culture, despite the efforts by people like Zhu Xi and Jiang Zemin to stamp it out and control them.

One important detail: in Coco, a bad guy gets energy from people who are NOT of his family. OK, he was bad, but it is not natural to restrict the flow of energy only to flows within a family. It violates nature to limit things in that way. In a previous year, we actually visited Mao Tze Tung’s dorm room in the college in ChangSha where Zhu Xi taught, and saw the echoes of his scream that it is not JUST within the family.

But I show you TWO pictures above. Only one is the simple “Day of the Dead.” The beliefs of the Mayans included Coco as ONE PART of it, but there was also that other world of “the heavens,” and the alternative real, great hope depicted by the Sian Kaan, the tree which bridges through the earth from that Day of the Dead realm to the world of the heavens. To me, this is ever so real, and I wish others could really see how real it is and how much it changes – offering our best hope not only to do better than the happy skeletons which eventually DO dissolve into powder, but also our best hope to save the mundane human species from extinction, if only we refuse to turn into happy skeletons and insist on always reaching with real energy and receptivity to the real heavens. (See http://www.werbos.com/Space_personal_Werbos.htm for my chapter in the book Beyond Earth, Krone ed, Apogee Press. Reaching out with rocketplanes actually is part of this, but no, it is not at all the whole thing.)

Of course, we saw a lot of great trees in the Amazon, and a lot of people on the cruise reaching out very energetically to try to learn and see nature and life and cultures beyond their own grandchildren. They were not neglecting their grandchildren. The Sian Kaan still always connects to the earth and to its roots,  but it adds another connection, to a primary source of qi above them, qi which flows back to the living world and to the Coco world (the world of “widow” and “widower” spirit personalities). 


How can we add this extra dimension to our lives, to our “inner life” as Quakers would say? I had the stop typing on that day, in part because I did need to file taxes, and finish a new paper on quantum theory and consciousness, now in press at Activitas Nervosa Superior, a Springer journal.

In truth, this question is of the utmost importance to us, but requires us to understand several basic facts of life beyond the scope of this blog post.
I will write a new paper on some of those facts of life, but for those who want some concrete ideas now… I have recommended that they go to www.wderbos.com/Mind.htm, and notice the links to my blogspot blog. At that blog, search on “noosphere” and “dark matter.” Or go to http://www.werbos.com/Tucson2018.pdf . (The video of the actual talk is posted at  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5QxhYner7U, coming after a brief lead-in and a video of a robot speaking.) I will append a bit more theory to the end of this post.

In brief: when we enter into states of “meditation” where we really feel ourselves as part of the noosphere, the vast mind connecting our entire earth or solar system, and respond to the values and feelings and thoughts at that level, we can become channels for that higher qi, which will continue at least as long as life on earth continues, and perhaps even more.  

In the first two weeks of the cruise, I finished reading “Vita Nostra,” a one sided but great and useful novel about spiritual development. No, we are not words, but we are… partly something like that. And we need to pursue many types of discipline to connect more completely to that which may not be truly eternal, but will last billions of years, if we do not screw up all life on earth. And, as Jesus said, we need to allow a certain kind of love permeate us deeply at all levels.. including a very strenuous love for the spirit of truth which, he had, would be what really comes in later days like ours.

After the cruise, I posted some pictures with explanations which describe some of the disciplines of the soul which emerge from neural network mathematics, applied to the world of experience. But I did not show photos illustrating ways to see the night sky, which was also a great part of the cruise for me... something I tried to photograph a little, but far beyond the capacity of my cell phone. 

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A quick summary of the underlying theory:


Many years ago, soon after Newton's great breakthrough, people followed up by proposing that the brain too is governed by mechanics, and thus works like a clock. (In the twentieth centtury, many proposed it is a thermostat.)

I really believe in Newton, in brains, in clocks and in thermostats, but view the idea of the brain as a clock or as a thermostat as a kind of category error.

Likewise, I have gotten very deep into quantum theory and psi of all kinds, but mostly view the premature claims of connection as a category error.

More precisely, I view the standard of model physics today as (1) not exactly true, for technical reasons; (2) a THREE LEVEL structure, of which the lowest is special relativity, the next is quantum field theory (QFT) and the highest is the specific EWT+QCD Lagrangian which people inject INTO SR and QFT to get specific predictions.

Neither SR not QFT AS SUCH can explain psychic phenomena. If we APPLY QFT in the domain of the best known forces beyond gravity (not so plausible as a major organizer for little things), and if we don't add more than SR and QFT, we basically get QED. Quantum electrodynamics has been fairly well validated, empirically. In a way, it is for this millennium what Newton's breakthrough was at his time. Many have hoped that psi could be explained in QED, but that simply doesn't work. Thus quantum theory AS SUCH cannot explain it. Dean Radin has often explained why QED is not enough. 

As an example, consider how a remote viewer or a telepath can perceive very small scale details in a selected site far far away. Well funded technology research has tried to get closer to that kind of capability in technology, drawing on practical and empirical understanding of how QED works far beyond what Sarfatti begins to dream of. Yet they can't get close. In technical terms, there are problems figuring out the SWITCHING required here, to connect point A on earth to point B, at will. There is only one plausible way to do that in realistic physics (either Einstein realism or quantum realism): there has to be some kind of switching .out there, which begs the question of HOW such a switching network could be there, especially one connecting all the humans on earth, what we are most sure of. (Caveat: two backup possibilities could be cosmic mind idealism, CMI, an ALTERNATIVE to Einstein and quantum realism; and positive Lagrangian synchronicity, a relatively conservative idea I doubt and you would doubt more, rejecting all types of psi except for Jungian synchronicity.)  

There are not many ways this could come to be, within the scope of Einstein or quantum realism. It basically comes down to my noosphere species theory. The idea is that the "switching network" which connects us is not some weird artifact produced by UFOs (made of what anyway?),  but a manifestation of life, of evolved biological life, based on a material substrate other than the matter we can easily see in our laboratories (a requirement when we can in fact not see it yet with our instruments). 

Some people think of "dark matter" as some kind of particle number 75 or the like. But what our phrase "dark matter" really refers to is the >90% of the mass of the cosmos which we understand hardly at all as yet, except to know it is implicated in the birth of stars and forms a vast pulsing network or ocean of life crossconnecting all the galaxies except for a few weak zombie galaxies. The idea is that the "noosphere" idea of de Chardin does describe our earthly experience, including psi, and needs fixing ONLY in regards to where the noosphere of our solar system comes ffrom -- that it emerged as a member of a cosmos-spanning species of noospheres. In fact, from what we know of evolution, we should EXPECT such life to emerge in such a vast ocean of life and matter as we know know exists. To explain human experience of psi, we basically must assume a kind of symbiosis or "alchemical marriage" between the brain we see (with mundane eyes) and the brain we don't. Not much choice. In fact, my exploration of first person experience and of reports from others through history over the world is fully consistent with that theory, a theory which engages with the specifics of the menu of various types of psi experience. 

To explain psi that way tends to involve a pathway of signals from brain to personal soul either directly or indirectly to "invisible muscles" of dark matter which can then perturb ordinary matter. SOMETHING has to perturb ordinary matter for PK to be possible, either if we believe Einstein realism or if we believe quantum realism, and that something has to be something we don;t see with today's instruments. To say that its "dark matter" is no more narrow or specialized than saying it is a hardly known form of material substrate. 

The challenge we are best equipped to address is not so much how to strengthen the "invisible" muscles but how to connect better with (and train) the "invisible neural networks" which connect our brains or our conscious selves to what those "invisible" muscles do. In essence, it's not about pilot waves; it's about training (and understanding) neural networks.

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One reader asked:

I like your final statement that we need to understand neural networks but I know from your other post about airplanes [ search on true legends ultrafast on this blog] that you feel multi-pronged approaches are required as well and you need not express that every time for me to expect that is contextual. While you question if there may be some substrate of soul through dark matter I wonder at your distaste for any substrate not specifically labeled dark matter. ..

Fair enough. Let me try to clarify.

It makes life complicated that I am not 100% committed to one possible theory about the ultimate laws of physics. But I do give a subjective probability of about 70% for now that Einsteinian realism or Fock-space/quantum realism is correct. (i.e. 70% that ONE of them is the ultimate truth of our cosmos.)
IN THAT CASE, I see little alternative to the noosphere species possibility, once we accept the experiential evidence for psi. 

The noosphere species theory basically says that noospheres (and maybe some other stuff) are a complex form of life, an evolved emergent pattern, made up mainly of dark matter just as our mundane brains are made up mainly of electrons, protons and neutrons. 

The leaders of modern vedantism seem very deeply committed to the idea that consciousness as such IS a SUBSTANCE. I disagree very strongly with that idea. It is like saying that our consciousness resides the mass-energy of our protons, electrons and neutrons as such, and that any collection of electrons, protons and neutrons would therefore be equally conscious. 

To be more precise -- Einsteinian realism proper would posit that dark matter and energy are ultimately attributes and patterns of continuous "force fields," unknown as yet. It would not include any "aether" like the aether assumed by older interpretations of Maxwell's Laws, before the model version based on E and H or A. In that view, dark matter is in the same (ontological) category of "substance" as electrons, protons and neutrons, something which at a deeper level is itself a set of emergent patterns (coupled to waves, just as electrons are coupled to electromagnetic waves). Noosphere consciousness is NOT identified with dark matter, but COMPOSED of it.