Monday, September 12, 2016

Creativity and Inborn Personality Factors

Creativity and Inborn Personality Factors

 This post will be pretty casual in the way I will talk... but the subjects of creativity and of inborn personality factors are both quite serious, both for society and for basic science.

Let me start with some important basics, things which should be well-known but somehow get lost in powerful policy discussions.

Background 1... creativity

There are lots of high-level efforts in US, China and elsewhere on how to accelerate innovation, or take the lead in innovation. For decades and decades, serious economists have known that improvements in productivity have been the main source of long-term growth, and that improvements in productivity are tied to productivity. In my recent post on NSF, I emphasized the need for greater effectiveness in “both main areas”: (1)  new fundamental breakthrough discoveries and inventions; and (2) “translational” work, addressing the “Valley of Death” between invention and deployments which actually create value added or improvements in human life. (Really serious economists want us to measure value added in ways which capture more of the possible improvements in quality of life, but that’s too big of a subject for me to review again this morning.) We need diversity of thoughts and approaches in both areas, but right now (1) is the area most in danger around the world. I have spent a lot of effort in (2) as well, but it is beyond the scope of this particular post.

Even in an ideal system (like the old NSF, exactly as it was or with more rational improvements/supplements?)... new discovery and invention (1) is not easy. I spent almost 30 years at NSF seeing real results, good and bad and halfway, from proposals and projects across a very wide variety of S&T areas.  I have read state-of-the-art papers on creativity; this post will not be one of those, but it is informed by some of those, and it will have two unique advantages:
    (1) What I saw in direct observation of hundreds of the very most effective people in (1) from many fields; and
   (2) A more mathematical functional understanding of the underlying brain mechanisms, reviewed in my chapter for the 2016 book edited by Freeman and Kozma and also in our new paper submitted by invitation in a neuroscience journal..(hopefully citeable soon)...

Background 2... inborn personality factors

Inborn personality factors?

I have spent most of my life developing models and designs for intelligent systems as open-minded as possible, relying as little as possible on hard-wired behavior and assumptions and prior knowledge.  Yet even the most universal learning systems, at the highest levels of intelligence, remain influenced for their whole life by three kinds of constraints: (1) the concrete sensors and actuators, like senses and muscles (or “squeezing and squirting”) they are hooked up to; (2) the complex system of primary utility or reinforcement they partner with, the system I was prepared to study instead of intelligent back when I defended two topics for my Harvard PhD thesis; and (3) “arbitrary cognitive style parameters.”

To me, the “inborn personality factors” which some psychologists look for are a mixture of factors in the primary utility system, and of cognitive style parameters. The cognitive style parameters are factors where the mathematics says you can pick anything, and the system will still learn the right thing in time... but it will simply lose a finite amount of time if it starts with the wrong things. The values of these parameters are arbitrary in a way, because the system is equally intelligent and powerful whatever you choose within a broad range, but in some environment some values get you off to a better start. In biology, one would predict that nature would create a diversity of gene values, to make sure that the population has a diversity of possible values of these parameters, so that some organisms will be able to adapt to a variety of possible environmental conditions.  To a first approximation, if we see a diversity of cognitive style parameters in the population, it tells us that there is no “best value” but rather a need for  a diversity of values in the population. This is especially important to creativity! But at the same time, populations in flux, like the human population, may have a mix of traits, some which really need variation, and some which are more like the appendix, evolutionary relics. If nation-states try to micromanage DNA, or, worse, look for “the best DNA,” we are in very deep trouble, worse than governments trying to pick the one right source of energy. But we do need realistic humane systems of competition which do justice both to the need for diversity and for the need for progress. The DNA of creativity is important both to technological creativity and to spiritual progress as well, and that is part of why all top-down systems of political control right or left are a great threat to humanity here and now. (At this moment, assorted threats from the right seem more serious, and threats from the left seem more of a joke, but such things wax and wane.)

By the way, some neural network people would immediately guess that “the learning rate” might be one of those parameters. But even in my older work (as in the Handbook of Intelligent Control, and my 1988 paper on the model of natural gas markets I developed for EIA), I used an Adaptive Learning Rate Algorithm, in which cognitive style parameters were at a higher level, allowing adaptation of the learning rates used in different parts of life.

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And now, some rambling realities.

I remember a nice tutorial from an old entrymate from Harvard, Prof. Dan Levine, discussing the theory of Cloninger, who has become something of an orthodoxy or starting point for today’s research in human personality theory. (Please forgive that I giggled when I first heard that name, long ago, as it sounded like “cloning her.” Actually, many people end up working in areas which resonate with their names, like the once famous Dr. Brain. I was so sad when Dr. Merklein took over the the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and one reviewer said “Given who is behind the Annual Energy Outlook, we are not surprised that it is Murky and Verbose this year.”)

In Cloninger’s view, some of the 11 or so basic traits of human personalities are highly inheritable, others not at all so, and some (like IQ?) a kind of 50-50 mix. One of the 11 was
a kind of mix of two highly inheritable traits, which I had discussed before with Bernie Baars, Dan Levine and Dan’s former student Sam Leven: (1) “tolerance of cognitive dissonance” and (2) “novelty seeking.”

In the course of evaluating literally thousands of proposals at NSF (with heavy input from peer review of course), funding hundreds... I noticed some patterns.

I used to say: “Everyone I fund has at least SOME trait which most people would regard as an extreme anomaly or even fault. It seems that unique high productivity or new value added (without which we would not want to spend NSF money) demands some special irritant, like the old story of he oyster and the pearl.” I told this to many people, including one woman I funded. “Hey, what about me? I am absolutely normal.” She was, at a very important level, but she also taught belly dancing and practiced wicca in her spare time. But don’t worry, I also founded a guy who talked EXACTLY like Donald Trump, so much so that I found it weird when I first heard his (familiar!) voice on TV this year. I suppose that the guy like Romney was more average, sort of, or the guy who had danced in the bolshoi... but... some unique creative tension does seem called for.

I have done some creative things myself, and “it takes one to know one.” For me... I have a high inborn “intolerance of cognitive dissonance,” like a lot of “yang” Germans and Russians. As with all cognitive style parameters, it provides a mix of strengths and weaknesses, and we need to be mindful both of the strengths and the weaknesses, and the risks and opportunities they provide. People with this trait tend to go for order, and tend to insist that things make sense in terms of a coherent worked out understanding. But they can risk becoming a bull in the China shop, ignoring data which does not fit their theory, and being insensitive.

But at the same time, I also have a very high level of “novelty seeking.” I sometimes associate this one with the Irish half of my ancestry, though people like my mother and the great physicist Robert O”Connell remind me that that ancestry can also come with a kind of almost clairovoyant clarity which also favors mathematics. My mother is a very serious“yin” person, but perhaps OConnell goes for order as much as I do. (I remember Irish priests who also went for order, though I doubt Bob would follow them any more than I would.)

When I discussed this with Bernie Baars in a sushi bar next to UNU in Tokyo in 1999, where we both had plenary talks in the first big international conference on consciousness, he said something like: “My God! Those two traits do not go together very often or very well. Their negative correlation is so great that it’s no wonder Cloninger just limped them together as one thing. Your novelty seeking would always drive you to disconfirm whatever theory you are trying hard to hold onto... It would cause endless inner conflict and discontent.” Yes, it is so, exactly so, but for that niche of folks asked to come up with new theories or frameworks, it is a powerful engine, like the powerful free energy you can get from access both to high heat and cold at the same place. It also drives some psychological adjustments. In light (Irish?) type moments, I have said... “I ended up with a German brain and an Irish heart”.. and I even noticed the different unique capabilities of other folks with Irish brain and German heart... we all learn in time.  Both engines can also drive a person to serious, analytic mysticism, as I described in a prior blog post.

In discussions of spirit and consciousness and mysticism, frivolous superficial people have said: “Oh, you just believe that paranormal kind of stuff because of what your parents taught you about your family religion. That’s the only reason any intelligent people believe anything but what the amazing Randi teaches us about how the cosmos works.” Well, I sometimes cite the deep study by Greeley and Macready going past that kind of speculative ideological stuff. But I sometimes say: “What of the four great founders of the hard core of quantum mechanics, Heisenberg, De Broglie, Schrodinger and Einstein? Except for Einstein, all four were hard core mystics as serious as I am. Were these the kind of people who just beleived what their parents taught them, with no ability to think for themselves? Can the Amazing Randi think for himself better than these folks could?” No, the Amazing Randi would fit in well with the utterly conformist non-innovative cheering squads we now see, chanting Bo Xilai hymns to innovation (paid for by the taxpayer)... but it’s just another species.. a species which has its place but not in charge.

So what WERE the engines of creativity for those four great people?

I like to believe that De Broglie and Schrodinger were driven by engines very similar to my own, to a type of mysticism very similar to my own. I actually have letters from De Broglie in my files (also scanned into google drive!), and once had a few links to his old colleagues in France. His Bergson said a few things too mystical for me, a tad less yang, but he pushed hard for clear orderly understanding to his dying day, more than most mainstream physicists. I like to believe that our 2016 paper in Quantum Information Processing will be a step to help the world understand the validity of his vision.. Schrodinger was even more yang, like me, and the record of his conversations with Einstein is ever so gemutlich...and clear about his interest in very hard core yang-style mysticism.

But what of Heisenberg? I think of Heisenberg as an utterly yin person born into an utterly yang culture and family. That was the engine for him. How else could a person invite Gopal Krishna to given lectures on the vedas and on the unreality of everything to Germany, even as fitting in just fine in Nazi Germany and keeping people happy in Max Planck institutes?   

And Einstein, the mirror image, a more purely yang person brought up in an incredibly cosmopolitan and even yin culture, furiously womanizing but also treating women a bit like a bull in the China shop even in later life.

I once compared Steve Grossberg’s engine of creativity to Einstein’s, and was amused when I saw the reaction of some of his followers. We all have our strengths and weaknesses, and I am glad that Gail Carpenter has taught Steve things which Einstein never quite learned in his lifetime.

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Just this morning, as I talked to Luda in the kitchen, she mentioned how she really hates it when things become routines, like how I keep offering to make coffee or tea (her choice) almost every morning. “Even this recent cognac thing in the evening, for the stomach..
it was great at first, but not after three times.  We need new adventures. Like this new one..”

I then said: “You know, Luda, now that I think of it, we really do have something very deep in common here.  We both have a very strong drive for order, combined with very strong novelty seeking.” She looked a bit conflicted, however (not a state she likes), and I said: “OK, I can see you might deny that about ordnung... except that in the kitchen especially you don’t want me to develop delusions about you putting up with disorder.” (Just as I type this, a scary thought arises: does Putin also strive for a combination or order and novelty in some ways? Ouch!)

After some thought she said: “Order in space, but novelty in time. I want you always to put things back in the same place in the refrigerator, but in the coming weeks...”

And then I thought: “Is this like spatial intelligence before the development of temporal intelligence, order and structure in space but not time?” I even said that, and noted.. the dinosaurs were a great step forward in evolution (though I have to admit I forget the details of Bitterman’s experiments comparing them with amphibians)... lots of structure and order in time... but not so creative. (I once compared them to Cheney’s foreign policy, but Cheney actually was quite creative in support of different goals, like Sith Lords, still very active today.) And then I realized... of course, the key difference between the mouse and the reptile is the new creativity mechanism, which RETAINS the temporal structure of the reptile brain but subordinates it in a way which allows for much more novelty and creativity. “Creativity” as we know it,” like “love” or “consciousness”, is actually a word or phenomenon representing the emergent outcome of many things, but certain these special new connections in mouse brain beyond reptile brain ARE a very specific mechanism specifically aimed at creativity, at escaping a type of local minimum in the higher order patterns, routines and decisions of our life. So are we just motivated to better express the inner mouse? (As Perlovsky has noted, the cognitive style and motivation parameters may actually overlap at some level. The mouse builds up a cognitive map of the space of possibilities; some mice may be more driven to fill in the unknown parts of the map than others. Work by Powell on exploration gradients is also relevant to the underlying cognitive style parameters in play here.)

By the way... something recently reminded me how important it ALSO is to consider Cloninger-like parameters on respect for authority and such, to map out some human behaviors... but I forget what it was. This is enough for one day.

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As Putin hears Trump and Trump’s people selling out to folks who want a war with Iran.. I do hope his sense of order will kick in, more than it did when he made a deal with Erdogan like what CIA once did with Osama bin Laden. Or will he repress the unwanted data? I agree that the data is unwanted, but we do need to face up to reality here... scary as it is.

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Small follow-on thoughts. I remember when I was 14 my father arranged a thorough psychological inventory, to try to help with career planning and such. I still remember that the personality part of test mostly ended up with numbers in the mid-range... except self-reliance, at the utter maximum, and self-confidence, at the utter minimum.  As he looked at that contradiction, the psychologist rubbed his eyes... very hard.. so hard it looked as if he would squish/force them our of the sockets; I could hardly
hold my stomach to look at it! Another engine, needed for science, but problematic in other niches in this society? 


Why so much new enthusiasm for AI but not space?

First, the AI side: 
On Sun, Sep 11, 2016 at 1:47 PM, Lotfi A. Zadeh <zadeh@eecs.berkeley.edu>
[the god of fuzzy logic]:

AI is back in popularity after a long winter. What the cause the change?Here is my thought. Please post yours on the bulletin board:
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My reply:

The revival of neural networks and of learning in 1987/1988 was large enough to mobilize a small minority, but the technical culture in general was still too conservative to pay real attention. It acted like the "antibody" forces in the movie Inception. At NSF, I got to see first-hand, and play, in a cultural clash which was quite challenging, with important aspects which don't fit the word limits here. 

The recent cultural change was mainly due to the impacts of one of the $2 million grants we funded under a one-year special topic, "COPN", which I fought for and won back in 2008. Search on "COPN" at www.nsf.gov to find that topic. In the old NSF (which maintained the full spirit of Vannevar Bush and Joe Bordogna), I was allowed to fund a proposal by Ng and LeCun, despite very heavy pressures not to. (At www.nsf.gov, search on "COPN Ng LeCun" to  see the grant.) 

Crudely speaking, many of the great stalwarts of AI had written books with limited research behind them, describing only kindergarten level neural nets, not acknowledging the more advanced work done before, asserting that learning systems in general could never solve real problems. The Ng/LeCun grant simply empowered them to DO THE EXPERIMENT -- to apply slightly more advanced neural networks and other learning systems to challenge problems which conventional AI people had worked on and competed on for decades. When, in one fell swoop, they broke all records quickly for a series of well-publicized open challenges, in image recognition, speech recognition and natural language processing, DARPA and Google both took notice; lots more funding became available, and more people entered the fray. Through very tactful politics, they succeeded in labelling this as a new advance in AI and machine learning. 

IN DC, I see very directly what kind of new enthusiasm has resulted in the funding world and in the large companies which tend to drive a lot of the other stuff. The terms "deep learning" really lead the pack.

But "the revenge of the empire" is still a threat. The success of an expert system, Watson, in defeating Jeapordy also had a big psychological impact. Under the new more conservative management of science in the US (which has been spread from DOE and NASA to NSF), there are folks working to run the entire world (the INternet of Things being the base) in a top-down political way, bypassing any enthusiasms in the marketplace or in academia as a whole, let alone little things like the Arab Spring. They are much more determined and ruthless and effective than what we overcame in previous years. 

For more details on the recent situation see:www.udc.edu/winter_school/IEEE_Cis_winter_school_files/Page853.htm.
Video for first 13 slides posted at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6q1HqRd9MnA

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Before the Ng/LeCun project, and perhaps before the NSF initiative on Learning and Intelligent Systems, the state of AI was similar in many ways to the state of the space program today. Both remind me of the old Russian saying "we pretend to work and you pretend to pay us."  1960's technology were enshrined in power, supported by a few key people (like Senator Shelby and Congressman Lamar Smith) -- and emphatically narrow enough that greater powers were content to leave them alone, with a predictable but small role.

Ironically, I also had a chance in 2003 to do some breakthrough in the space area too, which a mere $2 million grant might have accomplished (with follow-ons of course, as with Ng and LeCun). I deeply regret that I listened to my partner at NASA on that... but there are a lot of other things I would have done differently with 100% hindsight. I do have some foresight, but there are ever so many layers we need to get right here!

Actually, the space example reminds me of the old Zen story about a buy who breaks his leg, who later finds it was for the best, who still later discovers it was not so good after all, but then later still...
When I later tried to find a new way to support that effort, I learned sad but important realities about what is happening in the US right now. For the best, or not? Will that knowledge offer hope of overcoming key problems, or will it just hit the reset button?

==============================
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I am sad it was not appropriate this morning to cite two important new papers in process which go further, one
for NATO and one for neuroscience.  I did get an email from Yeshua, who generally agreed with the NATO paper on policy towards terrorism, but would have wanted to go further by adding a paragraph:

On that note, some final reflections are important. We need to make a clear distinction between “short” and “long” term solutions together with fundamental vs. quick fix solutions. When we consider human culture and human potential we must remember that our highest individual’s spiritual potential lies in the areas of self- mastery, self-responsibility and self-governance with foundations in the embodiment of Universal (Spiritual) values [27], towards the application of constructive intelligence and creativity as antidotes to the limiting structures created by the brain and nervous system that impose behavioral values based on reward and fear conditioning, in the form of learning that can lead to destructive behavior (like terrorism) and unhealthy partial loyalties towards any group. This human potential development is without a doubt the long term and fundamental solution for the chaos and destructive forces we actually face. However, it seems, that this long term solution must be achieved in scenarios where the application of quick fixes with detrimental side effects are avoided and instead, we apply some short term solutions that will strengthen the probabilities of success of the fundamental solution. So far, this seems to be a well balanced risk taking endeavor in the area of applied quantum physics and mathematics together with the exploration of Universal Values and human potential, where for example, a truly sane self-aware person would send a warning back in time, so that the core version of him or herself has been changed to a form of avatar or savior who has achieved such a level of altruism with a well informed consciousness, by having a “real” taste of a ghastly future and opting for a self-transformation backwards in time, in order to survive in a scenario of collective freedom and happiness, a better world.

====================

That seemed heavy enough, but a Quaker friend said it was not enough:

Dear Paul et al,
Thank you very much for including me in this fascinating look at cutting-edge science and philosophy.  Of course much of it is beyond me, so I’m a fool to rush in where angels fear to tread.  But rush I will, as a preface of perhaps discussions to come.
We live in a mostly open society.  To the extent that we are open, terrorists always will be able to find vulnerabilities to exploit to their advantage.  Otherwise we become even more a closed society that stagnates and feeds terrorism.
To my mind, the best human culture/human potential method to overcome terrorism is to reduce and try to eliminate the inequalities and injustices that give rise to the frustrations that culminate in terrorist acts.  Fighting terrorism with military weapons only feeds the frustrations that recruit new terrorists, as much of the 21st Century has shown.  As a human race we need to learn from Cain and Abel that we are our brothers’ keepers, and that evil is best overcome by love rather than resisted by force.  That’s a hard lesson to learn, but we can try to learn and apply it, one by one, using brilliant insights to live and spread the message, as Ghandi and King have done in our time.
So to me, the final paragraph is not enough.
John

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Well, there are always important details one must leave out in a brief treatment. 

The guy I mentioned in the previous blog had some very specific ideas in similar directions,
beyond the scope of this blog.

Some of this really reminds me of a couple of the novels of Dan Simmons, but today I plan to change tracks yet again.

As a minor matter... I was amused in a way when the TV reported Hillary Clinton having some small issues with dizziness and vertigo. I had the same, even milder, recently... and found it was a side effect of Zantac, which my doctor advised that I take instead of Prilosec/opremazole. So I am back to opremazole as of yesterday. I also pulled a muscle moving heavy bags of mulch, and Luda explained to me that aspercreme is one good part of treatment -- "no, it's not one of those evil pain-killers, it's just antiinflammatory, aspirin for the muscles."
And with hot water and just the right kind of exercise, I hope I will be ready for the next insane adventure...  



  


Saturday, September 10, 2016

reactions to a unified field theory

A few years ago, a friend sent me an email saying: "We think Einstein has been reincarnated. As you might expect, he has been reincarnated as a young Moslem with new lessons to learn... and just look at the equations of his new unified field theory based on an extension of differential geometry...!"

I was delighted to learn this morning that he is still around, and has more details in the theory.

I hope it is OK to post most of my reply to him this morning:

==================================

Thank you again!

A few hours later... I have done a first read of your email. This is important and complicated material, and I am truly grateful that you have come back in touch.

Where to begin?

First, in a light-hearted way.

I too often feel a bit like a "stranger in a strange land" on this planet, and often an immune system problem. Only -- instead of me being allergic to earth, I sometimes feel as if earth is allergic to me at times. Have you seen that great movie "Inception"? There really are antibodies of a kind in the noosphere of this little planet, and it is tricky how to handle them. My younger daughter works for google, and she and her boyfriend swear by the "paleo" diet. I just returned from a shopping trip with my wife, where I scanned a book on the paleo diet, and see how well-focused it is on living with immune system problems -- though it is flagrantly ignorant of the differences in needs of different types of people.  In a way, it is like a shotgun, aimed at the worst case of maximum immune system problems. 

Then...

I too see how the "spiritual" side of life is a core part of our real existence, and how I do not yet understand it as well as one should, even though most people are far more ignorant. 

I do not know how serious I should be about "reincarnation", for example, but I am totally convinced from experience in the reality of a phenomenon called "channeling" or "assumption." For example, I really enjoyed a simple science fiction trilogy, "Oversoul 7," by Jane Roberts, where she depicts a person in a mental hospital who channels Jesus. She vividly portrays a paradox -- a person in a mental hospital, who really belongs there, but who also really channels Jesus in a way which lets him do great things, and even perform real miracles in that mental hospital. I actually have a friend (and now coauthor) who channels his uncle Jesus, and does not belong in a mental hospital, but is certainly not the one and only
"Son of God" and not the full thing.

In a similar way, I have an image of how you channel Einstein's way of thinking, and I channel his friend John Von Neumann. Last year, I very much enjoyed visiting again their offices in Princeton, and refreshing my memory of the unique feeling of that part of the place. 

Frankly, from a Von Neumann point of view, the logic which led to general relativity would have seemed quite suspicious. But at the end of the day, 
Einstein did succeed along that path, and we should never forget his success.  
There are no guarantees, but from that experience ... we definitely should make room for the possibility that some kind of geometric thinking, exactly in his style of thought, could take us even further. I see immediately that your mathematics is quite serious, even though it challenges me in a way no other mathematics 
has in the past few decades. But I also believe that mutual respect and caution
are important for both of us. 

In recent years, I am grateful that I had fairly close contact with Bernard Widrow (Stanford) and Marlan Scully, two of the very most successful authentic mathematical thinkers in the recent decades. (Of course, both have enormous web presence.) I do not channel either one of them, but I was glad to assimilate their thoughts about what is crucial here to make real progress. Both emphasize the ideas of "one step at a time," and of always being heavily grounded in experiment and experience at every step of the way. For me, that means first learning to see the big picture.. AND THEN deconstruct it, to find "first steps" which open up a path to next steps, and so on, yea unto the whole thing. That is especially important to sheer survival in a planet full of "antibodies."

I have certainly had to accept the existence of many varieties of nasty people and conspiracies on this planet, especially after July 2014 when the empirical demonstrations of that became overwhelming to me personally. I usually use ONLY this gmail now, with double identity verification and the setting "always use https", which is far more secure than all other nonspecialist forms of email. But even so, I expect several databases to carry copies of this email, and I am worried about the ability of nasty third parties to get access to those databases. 

----

Your comments about monads remind me of the Newton/Liebnitz debate.
I have been biased, because I idealized Newton as a child... though my wife channels Newton much more than I do. (I also know a woman who channels Alan Turing, who recently took a job in the US military complex!) There is a lot of history in that relation. 

A few years ago, I was close to Kunio Yasue who, with Mari JIbu, wrote interesting papers on quantum foundations, and collaborated with Karl Pribram. 
 But he developed a mathematical model of "monadology" which he hoped I would support. I remember very vividly the meeting we had in Tokyo circa 2005,
when he was deeply disappointed that I could not jump on his bandwagon. I wanted to stay friendly and close, but he could not contain his disappointment and his anger. I also tried to convey the importance and value of a more down-to-earth empirical approach in understanding the "spiritual" aspect of life, and the importance of controlling spiritual energies here and now.

On my last day in Tokyo... they had the worst earthquake in at least 10 years.
I remember vividly my feelings in the shower near the top floor of a tall hotel,
as it began to sway. (Should I just run downstairs as I was? Or what?) 
The quake caused some deaths exactly on the rail line I had to take to the airport.
But for me... it was an interesting ride; I sat next to a fairly attractive young woman on her way to Thailand, for some international Buddhist activities.
Later, a friend of his at Toyota told me he gave up physics, and was now studying martial arts. I am so sorry it had to end that way. Still, that is better than a neurosurgeon friend I was once close to, a high teacher of Sufism, who ended up dead when he returned to Pakistan.  

Reality is not such a light or easy matter to cope with. Every one of us is challenged in "drinking from a firehose," to move ahead while staying within our own limited bandwidth.

One step at a time...

My basic views are still as they were at www.werbos.com/Mind_in_Time.pdf.
Always I will admit uncertainty, and consider alternative theories of how the cosmos works. Always I will maintain a special place for "the simplest possible model." And truly, it is a key foundation of the Einstein approach to remember the limits of pure reason (ala Kant), to have respect for the simplest possible model
as one of the possibilities, and to try to find experiments. Certainly it would be a gross violation of the Einstein logic to rule out all models in which time is just another dimension!!

Reviewing the Einstein experience... some worked out very well, but some did not work out as well.   The Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen experiment was a truly great step forward, but Einstein's prediction of it was dead wrong; the step forward was in doing the work, and facing up to the importance of that experiment.
I have been working very hard to try to persuade SOMEONE to perform the next step experiment, which I sometimes call "Einstein's revenge."

The quest for unified field theory in the last years of his life did not seem to work out as well. Only immediately after his release from Princeton did two great breakthroughs occur, both related to that release: (1) Wheeler's "already unified field theory," which, though very simple, provably achieved tasks which none of the later Einstein work did; and (2) Everett's PhD thesis, the first reasonably worked-out theory allowing a return to reality (and opening the door to the great dissemination and extension by David Deutsch). Breakthrough (1) explains why I believe that a simple model analogous to Wheeler's, but with W and B and isotwistor Higgs terms added, really is the simplest model which really might fit empirical reality; meeting empirical reality is the task before us now, and it will actually take many steps, and mathematical competence greater than what I see in universities today. Could a more geometric model do this more elegantly,
and suggest new experiments able to prove that it fits better? That would be great, but it would take a lot of work. I suspect that a lot of new approximation theory is required,
and development of a whole chain of  parametrized families of models 
stretching from phenomenological to ever more elegant.

But who knows? Many believe that the ultimate model might be more like our information technology world than like differential geometry.  
The rational approach is to be open-minded. 

I do hope that progress on those lines will be possible.

Best regards,

    Paul

P.S. I actually did visit through Tuscany this year, in March or April.
(I have a record. My wife and younger son and I mainly went to Pisa, to Florence and to the western coast. Stopping by a wonderful vineyard on the way. Experiencing great gelato, but never getting hold of the vin santo...).

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

What happened to NSF and other pillars of US S&T

Some people I know are full of excitement, asking what could be done to make US S&T more innovative. 
They remind me of space enthusiasts who eagerly make detailed plans for Mars, while quietly allowing the basic technology we need to get even so far as earth orbit on an affordable basis slide into oblivion and the past.

In response, I gave a quick summary of the huge recent changes at NSF (which could possibly be repeated at places like the Fed and the NSA, creating even more damage). 

Here is my response: 

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First, how do you define "innovation"?

You have one brief definition, "discovery and delivery of...  (new stuff with value added)." When I came back to get the words straight, I clicked on your first box, and saw a definition more on the "delivery" side. The difference between the two is very important, because there have been debates for decades on how to promote discovery,. on the one hand, and how to do translational work to overcome the "valley of death" between discovery and  value added, on the other. 

It will be very easy for a report on this subject to become widely visible and widely quoted. But to make a big improvement would be a huge challenge, and it depends a whole lot on who is really ready to listen and act, to what end. 

In truth, many many organizations all over the world have profited for decades from the discoveries funded by NSF 
by free-wheeling professors at universities and by small businesses. (Earlier on, DARPA and xORs and NASA were more
or less coequal in basic discovery in areas like electronics and photonics, but changes in NASA and by Tony Tether resulted in lots of "refugees" raising proposal counts at NSF in those areas circa 2003. I was there, saw the numbers. Bell Labs also had a great prior history. Some is chronicled in chapters in the book Leadership in S&T edited by William Bainbridge, which should be a must-read and must-cite for this exercise.) But lucrative and useful as this was, it doesn't work any more without the discoveries to translate.  

From 2012 or 2013 to about August 2017 there has been a highly focused change in corporate culture at NSF which many of us believe eliminates the discovery function of NSF, or, to be more euphemistic, puts the agency in harmony with mainline DOE
and the new NASA. The analogy to NASA is more apt, as Lamar Smith has been a lead player (certainly more than Obama) in defining and implementing the changes (though Shelby was there first with NASA). When I was executive VP for policy of the National Space Society, I remember vividly certain ringing words from Smith's office: the US will go to Mars (at least as flyby) using no unproven technology whatsoever." Nothing so novel as a space shuttle, let alone newer than that, when after all we can use the Apollo technology.   

Since I have lived this story, which has many many dimensions to it, it is hard for me to resist the temptation to say a lot more, and to document many, many aspects. But let me focus on the bottom line. From the birth of NSF (or at least since I arrived in 1988)
to 2012 or 2013, most of NSF energetically fulfilled the vision of Vannevar Bush, which I will call "the old NSF" now. The old NSF had many very visible imperfections. I often cited what Winston Churchill said about democracy once -- the worst system you could possibly imagine, except for everything else anyone has ever invented.  (That for discovery let alone translation.)
At times I compared it to an internal combustion engine, about 25% mean efficiency if you are lucky... but still a whole lot better than the 0 percent creativity you get from well-controlled quality control committees and things I saw elsewhere. 
(Could an all-electronic alternative work better for discovery at NSF, as it does in cars? THAT kind of AI is not on the present horizon!) 

In my view, your committee and the folks listening to it would be doing a huge service and performing way above norm if you could so much as restore NSF to the level of discovery it had at peak under the old NSF, restoring the vision of Vannevar Bush.
I could certainly imagine better, at least in principle, and I have certainly spent years agonizing over the huge losses we had in the "valley of death," but the inertia, loss and entropy which have already occurred are a huge matter already, with far-reaching implications, and not easy to reverse.

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Just a few vignettes come to mind.

I remember a time, under the old NSF, when an idealistic young program director put together a review panel
which did an utterly incompetent job of reviewing a proposal for a new medical device which I happened to know a lot about.
She had lots of new age ideas about how to do things right, and was equally agile in finding excuses for utter incompetence, for reviews by people who did not even understand the basics of the proposal. I remember thinking: "This is such an obvious travesty,
such an open flaunting of truth and justice, that lawyers could have a field day with it." And then: "But I know how lawyers
and political interventionists work. If we bring them in at this level, this one case may be fixed, but it will all get much worse than it already is." (I worked for 9 years at DOE headquarters, and that helped me see clearly how those slippery slopes can end up.)

At another time, in 2014, I had a long conversation with a friend in the upper management of NSF (still there) who chose to stay and survive the new situation. "We agree that there is a new gestapo in place, and that the words 'transparency and accountability' have become like the 'ministry of peace' in 1984. But the problem is -- whose gestapo is it? Is it Obama's, or Smith's, or ...?"
I opined that Obama could not have wanted a lot of what was happening, and that he must have been playing golf.

In the news, there was a story about a major government employees group (union?) having a big meeting with Obama, where he said to them and to the press: "Don't worry. I have your back.." Many of us laughed.

A year or two ago, I joined an IEEE group meeting with the key science staffer from minority staff of the House Science and Technology Committee. At the time, I had seen retirement figures for those substantive scientific leaders, program directors, 
who were the core front-line people making Vannevar Bush's vision real. About half of them were permanent full-time government employees (strictly speaking, excepted service rather than civil service in most cases), increasing working 'way more than 50 hours a week due to "refugees" and new rules... and I had worried what happens when more than half of them go away. 
I was worried: "The workload to do the job the way we are supposed to will become near impossible for those rotators who make up the other half." I didn't say that at the time... but the staffer told us how Smith was successful in leading a new moral crusade to get rid of the rotators too.

Obvious question: "Who will do the work?" Two answers. First give up the kind of scientific leadership we had in the past, and fill the slots -- especially key "commissar" positions -- with reliable obedient predictable people rotated in from other agencies. Second, redefine the work. (For example, get rid of that old idea that no program director should sign off on funding or declination of a proposal without actually reading and understanding it and the reviews. Use more automated systems like the one developed by George Hazelrigg reported on in Science, a great way to reduce the labor required.) Some said it was a great innovation to reduce the quantity and quality of labor involved in deciding what to fund -- but when that kind of overhead was no more than about 5% of the budget, and the productivity of the rest is very much at issue, I remember "penny wise pound foolish." 
But lazy and incompetent people would rejoice; less work to do in-house, and less real need to work so hard to understand stuff. 

When I was at DOE under Reagan, people joked: "He decided not to abolish it after all, since it's really already been privatized. It's a joint venture, owned 60% by the oil companies and 40% by the nucs." In the old NSF, people would joke at times that it too was a joint venture, 50% owned by the American Physical Society and 50% by the deans. I certainly know a lot about the foibles of both of these, but they were committed to a vision like that of Vannevar Bush, and to principles of free speech as a key to a free market of ideas and creativity. But now the dark hand of the other kind of stakeholder system has appeared more and more. 
Darker than you would possibly believe if you had not seen it, and cross-checked with others.


But that's probably more than enough for a Saturday morning.    

Friday, September 2, 2016

How we are still missing life-or-death trillion dollar profit opportunities in renewable energy

Do you support the great efforts of your government and of the private sector to develop solar energy? Well, I still remember in 1970 when the issue of CO2 started to come out, when people supported efforts to pick up tin cans from the side of the road as a "way of making a difference to the environment." Moral support helps, but if we don't add REAL ACTION to our commitments, we all die anyway. (Search on "H2S" in this blog to see that I am dead serious about this being an issue of life or death.) The world still urgently needs new action on renewables, far beyond what anyone is doing yet -- and some of it could make money. Lots of money. (World electricity generation has been growing past 20,000 terawatt-hours per year; at 20 cents per kwh, that multiples out to $4 trillion per year. Consider how much money you could make if you captured just 0.1%  of the value added which comes from cutting that cost in half!! Large enough to save the EU economy in this decade.)

Here I will give you a crude overview of the issues and opportunities -- what I posted this morning to the energy policy discussion list of  IEEE, the world's largest engineering society. But first ..
here is an important post on the great achievements of recent years, citing one of those solar farms I am about to visit:

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From another IEEE committee member:

"Solar power recently sold for the lowest price ever, in Chile.
The Spanish developer Solarpack Corp. Tecnologica won contracts to sell power from a 120-MW solar plant for $29.10 a MWh at an energy auction this month...
A key part of the low price is the ever-declining price for solar panels. The average price on the spot market declined this week to 44.7 cents a watt for standard polysilicon panels, a record low...
Renewable-energy developers won more than half the contracts. The lowest price for wind power awarded in the auction was $38.10 a MWh, power from natural gas-fired plants sold for $47, coal came in at $57, hydroelectricity at $60 and geothermal at $66.  In Chile’s power auctions, developers offer to provide a certain amount of capacity at a specific price, without saying what type of power plant they’re planning to build. Bids are listed from cheapest to most expensive, and distribution companies select the lowest-cost proposals available until reaching their target capacity
The Solarpack contract is cheaper than a solar project in Dubai, that sold for $29.90 a MWh in May, and for a March auction in Mexico that awarded solar contracts for $35.50 a MWh, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance..."

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My reply:

Thank you for this story.

The cost of solar generation is an extremely important variable in determining what our future will be (or if there will be one at all!), but one which needs to be approached very carefully. For example, at:

I give a link to a recent talk by the head of the World Bank where he expresses puzzlement at the very inconsistent stories he has heard about the cost of solar energy from very credible sources. Why the differences?

I have the impression that solar farms based on today's PV technology still basically have long-term marginal cost of generation in the range 16-20 cents per kwh in favorable sites in the US, if one strips away the many incentive effects and marketing effects which have led to PPAs at lower prices. I do not dispute the arguments which say that the incentives represent real social costs and benefits, and so on -- but I am
very, very sad that we may be missing opportunities to develop solar farm technologies for which the naked economic cost in the US would be much less than what we see in these much-praised PPAs. The very low cost PPA you mention here is actually for the Atacama desert, in a project exploiting Bulgarian labor (and exploiting how Chinese companies are responding to overcapacity in producing panels); it is a great achievement, and a promising beginning which should be expanded, but it would be a huge tragedy if excessive optimism keeps us from working hard to develop much deeper cuts in cost especially important to the US and EU. 

In fact, there are huge unmet opportunities, which current funding systems are simply not capturing, not only in advanced technology in the PV space but in solar dish
technology, like what Sandia demoed in the late twentieth century, which would not require imports of PVs and other exotic materials. (The main cost is labor -- i.e. it would create jobs in the US -- and then engines and panels which can be brought up to mass production quickly in retooled auto industry factories which have excess capacity. There is some need for high-temperature parts for the next generation Stirling engine, but the Finns are licensing the foundry design which already produces such things in many locations.) 

And so, I agree with the folks who say that "the valley of death" and translational RD&D are what we need most to get out of the hole, and vastly expand the use of solar without warping politics or markets... but I don't see the present
"innovation army" approach (or the usual take-the-money-and-run versions of IPO) as having any net value at all to solving the problem. 

In fact, this is part of a general problem. In space policy and in climate change, I don't know which is killing us more -- the feet-in-the-mud people, or the euphoric folks who distort the issues in ways that block any real hope of doing what needs to be done. (For example, competition is essential, but folks who count on the divinity of Elon Musk to solve all technical problems really get in the way.) IEEE has a special role in trying to bring people to reality here, but even at IEEE some folks at the top would love to be part of the Washington psychology euphoric team.

BUT NO -- I do not mean to cast aspersions on the folks who send us this good news from Chile. It is important good news. I just want to call attention to other aspects of solar energy issues which I hope someone on this list can help with, somehow. I keep trying my best myself, but it clearly needs more than what I can do, in my retirement. 

Best regards,

     Paul

P.S. On the positive side -- I am grateful to have had a chance to visit Antofagosta in Chile where this new solar farm is, and to hear the great vision for solar energy they want to contribute to. Antofagosta has much better solar resources than any other site on earth, and I do hope they will export electricity as soon as possible to other nations in Latin America. Back when I first ran grid research at NSF, I arranged a joint workshop with EPRI at EPRI on new transmission technology, with Chen-Ching Liu as PI, which met a month after 9/11; at least back then, Brazil's own transmission technology was actually better than ours, for the kind of thousand-mile line I would like to see built from Chile to Uruguay, linking in to Brazil from there,
and allowing Brazil to save its oil and gas resources for more lucrative export markets. The world oil market was not so great between the economic crash of 2008
and a year ago, but the industry sees it recovering strongly now, and the industry makes more profit if it holds a bit to sell at a higher price. 

There are still people who for legitimate ideological reasons wish that distributed rooftop solar could meet all our needs and free us from the need for massive transmission systems. But for me, it was almost a life-changing experience when Harold Adams told me it would cost about 1.8 cents per kwh to ship electricity
from Lubbock Texas to PJM, if it were reliable noon-to-8PM (EST) gigawatts
of solar. Here we are, in a world where people pay more than 20 cents per kwh for generation from offshore east coast, while the midwest could get 7 cents or less for wind, if only we could EXPAND transmission. Favorable sites also mean a factor of two or more in the cost of solar electricity, and also mean a lot more reliability, which we here know is also essential. We shouldn't be wasting time and effort nibbling at the edges when there are such huge unmet opportunities out there -- but does IEEEUSA really have the stomach and the will to capture them? Even if it gets in the way of being part of the iron triangle cheering squads for the status quo?