Monday, August 23, 2010

Discussing the true meaning of Confucius in an ancient academy in China

Discussing the true meaning of Confucius in an ancient academy in China

First the discussion, then some discussion of this ancient academy..

****************************************************************

Tuesday, August (18), 2010

Host asks: do you believe this Confucius stuff?

Response:

There are many kinds of Confucius stuff. It is like Buddhism or Taoism or Christianity or Islam – there are many many varieties, some very good and some very bad.

Host: like Chinese food?

Me: yes, exactly.

What I really believe most fundamentally… I think of it as German existentialism.

Those are very fancy words, but what they mean is actually very simple. Basically, they just mean –

here I am, I see things and feel things, and I try to understand what I see and feel and what happens when I do things. And that is my starting point, the feelings and sensations and doing things first, and the words and theories all come later.

Next after that starting part are two very basic tools I use to help me in understanding my experience.

One is mathematics, and the other is the mirror. These are very basic. They are universal.

If anything in Confucius or Christianity or Islam is firmly rooted in these foundations, they can be very good. If not, they can become very crazy and even very dangerous.

I first learned about Confucius (in a real way) from one of my best friends in high school, a guy named Chen (Hsiung-Hsiao Chen?). He said just three things about Confucius.

First, Confucius said you should always try to tell the real truth to yourself.

Second, he would ask: “Who are you? Who are you really?”

And third he would ask,”Where are your blind spots?”

If believing in Confucius means these three things, you can say I believe it. They are all important and fundamental. For example, asking “who are you” means we should use the mirror….

All of this was what I came to understand by the end of high school. But later I grew older and learned

That was the end of the brief conversation, but more should be said.

The concept of “telling the truth to yourself” is basically the same as the specific concept of SANITY

which is a key part of my theory of human intelligence, discussed in my web page and in my 2009

paper in Neural Networks. Some Confucians call this “integrity.” Humans are born halfway between the mouse level of intelligence and the full symbolic/semiotic level of intelligence. Cultivating sanity or integrity means humans learning to emulate that next highest level of intelligence. Now we can understand more clearly and more precisely what this means – but it is basically what Confucius said,

when he described this basic principle. It is natural for humans to try to cultivate this higher level,

because it lets us be more effective in what we really want to work for, whatever it is. But we can learn to cultivate it more effectively when we have help of understanding and guidance from others who understand it, just as we can learn better in many areas with the help of understanding and other people.

The blind spots I just wondered about in high school. It is good to always wonder about blind spots, since all we humans have very important blind spots. Wondering about them helps us be alert and overcome them. For myself, I was willfully blind about things like qi and collective intelligence and special powers of the mind, until March 1967, when personal experience became too strong to ignore, and I became more open-minded and scientific about it. That is another story, discussed in bits

and pieces on my web site. Here in China, I see some signs of others who have taken a serious focused attempt to really understand such things, like Meng Tzu and the founder of Ch’an Buddhism and

a few others… but still I have a lot to learn about them.

In general, maybe I am further along than others in understanding. Also pretty unique in

turning the wheel, in the realm of qi and ideas. But in seeing… I see more than 99%, but that

is not really enough, and some others may see better..All for now.

Best of luck to us all…

Context ********************************************************

The ancient academy was the Yuelu Academy, the “Thousand Year Academy”

across the street from Hunan University in Changsha, ancient capital of Hunan Province area in China.

We held this conversation over lunch or dinner and the Fenglin Hotel (maple forest hotel),

just a few blocks as the crow flies from the Yuelu Academy. We were in the hotel with the ICIC convention led by Dr. Deshuang Huang (the host), who also arranged contacts with Hunan University people and a visit to Yuelu Academy and Hunan University.

At Yuelu Academy, we saw Mao Tse Tung’s dorm room, and the lecture room where Zhu Xi gave his lectures long ago, under edicts from emperors praising his style of Confucianism and a declaration that this southern v ersion is the right one. Many people say that Zhu Xi is third only after Confucius and Meng Tzu (Mencius) themselves, and far more recent, but I have heard from others who cast doubt on its profoundity. Mao went there after graduating form Changsha’s old downtown teacher’s college (“normal university”), in preparation to enter Hunan University, but he found other things to do somehow…

Was in China August 2 to August 22. Got back late August 22. No jet lag at all, even last night.

Friday, July 23, 2010

fly stories and understanding the brain and mind

A professor of artificial intelligence recently posted his thoughts about what we could learn from a story on the fly brain. My response:
=========================================
Like Don, I agree strongly with the main points John is raising here.

How to achieve a better understanding of intelligence and the mind is a central goal of this community,
and it's good that he has raised these points.

Is it good to get into fine points and refinements? Maybe... at least for some of us....

-----------------------------------------------------------
John said:

>.......I'd like to cite the following item that came up recently:
Fly's Brain -- A High-Speed Computer: Neurobiologists Use State-of-the-Art Methods to Decode the Basics of Motion Detection
>This research illustrates some interesting points:
>1. Many theories and models that were formulated a half century or more ago could be and have been quite accurate:
"Back in 1956, a mathematical model was developed that predicts how movements in the brain of the fly are recognized and processed. Countless experiments have since endorsed all of the assumptions of this model."

------------------------
Me:
There have been many examples in the past few centuries of mathematics
and mathematical insights developed many decades before it was used,
understood or appreciated by domain experts. This is certainly an important point
these days...

---------------
John:

2. But many features of such models could not be tested against the available neural evidence: "We simply did not have the technical tools to examine the responses of each and every cell in the fly's tiny, but high-powered brain."

--------------------------------------------

Me:

The specific example of the fly is interesting in many ways.
It is hard to refrain from telling several very amusing old stories...

But more relevant: in 2008, when we had discussions all over the Engineering Directorate
at NSF on the new initiative on Cognitive Optimization and Prediction (COPN)... we decided to
focus on .. learning... in VERTEBRATE brain. The real target was to understand how
the brains of the smallest mammal, the mouse, could be as powerful as they are in learning to predict
and to make effective decisions (or control). But lower vertebrates were very much included, because they offer a kind
of logical progression of design important to understanding or replicating the mouse eventually. Understanding
the progression of design is really important to understanding the design principles.

So why didn't we include invertebrates?

This is an important question which has been debated at VERY great length.

At a big workshop across ALL NSF, people studying really simple organisms like aplysia and nematode
argued that we should master them first before even trying to do anything at all with vertebrates.
There were a few typical appeals in the spirit of "give all the money to us and none to them."
There were especially interesting appeals to study taste and digestion in the context of lobsters...
(Am glad that Senator Grassley wasn't there...)

The aplysia people made the good and serious point that a lot of the biochemical mechanisms used
in vertebrates can be found in aplysia as well, and that aplysia might be a good place to learn about them.
This is an important and reasonable point. For the biology directorate, which has a responsibility to
understand these biochemical mechanisms, it is certainly justified to invest some money in these areas,
as one part of their portfolio, in order to develop understanding which could be used later in the more
important task of understanding the biochemical aspects of what we see in vertebrate brains. But for
us... the full challenge or end target of understanding the mouse is in sight clearly enough now that there
is no excuse for ignoring it. The sad fact is that there is a good amount of money out there today (as there should
be) for aplysia and nematodes, but, now that there is no money for NEW COPN projects, there is essentially no funding for directly addressing the bigger target. Aplysia simply aren't intelligent enough to be good testbeds for
the fundamental issues in prediction and optimization that we could and should be pursuing more directly and effectively.
We are in a situation of gross unmet opportunity.

As we are in many other areas, like energy.

Flies, however, are not aplysia. They present a very different set of questions.

Those of us who really want to achieve a crossdisciplinary understanding of mind and intelligence
should include the classic work of Bitterman on the list of must-read foundations. At least, his
Scientific American article from the 60's, which is easy enough. Bitterman did a great first cut at
explicating the qualitative progression in types of intelligence from fish (and lamprey?)
up to mammal. Curiously enough -- in his later work (some in Science in the 70's), Bitterman found that honeybees
scored as high as mammals in some experiments that reptiles couldn't quite handle. Whatever we make of this...
it raises the question: "Is there a SECOND whole progression here that we could learn from?"

The fly brain was discussed in some detail in a workshop sponsored by Microsoft at the University of Washington,
around 1998, run by Chris Diorio.

But -- here is the problem. There are some very large neurons in the fly (and other arthropods) which are easy
to access, but do not provide the kind of throughput and complexity that could explain the kind
of things Bitterman was talking about. Whatever high-level intelligence is there seems to depend on things
called "mushroom bodies" which are much HARDER to access than neurons in the mouse. Huge numbers
of very tiny neurons....

Given a VERY limited budget for COPN, we felt it was better to "put all our eggs into the one basket,"
and focus on vertebrates. We said people could submit proposals using insects as testbeds, BUT ONLY
if they could convince reviewers interested in vertebrates that the work would really help more
than the competing proposals.

**IF** there had been NIH-style hundreds of millions available, it would have been rational to diversify the portfolio more,
and maybe even throw in an octopus or two...

(Stories I refrained from telling: the beautiful blond and the fly brain; the flyas an attack and evasive military vehicle; Microsoft meets the fly.)
=======================================

John:

3. New technology can test the assumptions about previously unobservable features:

"Although it seems almost impossible to single out the reaction of a certain cell to any particular movement stimulus, this is precisely what the neurobiologists in Martinsried have now succeeded in doing."

----------------

Me:

This was certainly part of COPN as well. More could be said, but maybe not here and now.

John:

4. But every new discovery opens up even more questions: "Just how much remains to be discovered was realized during the very first application of the new methods."

============================

Me:
Again - agree strongly.

There is a tendency for some folks to despair at some level, because it seems there
will be no end point... and hence no pot at the end of this rainbow.

But I would claim (and have various papers out there...)... the principles are in hand to
make it possible to understand and replicate that level of general purpose intelligence
we see in the brain of the smallest mouse. At a certain kind of philosophical level,
we are "already there"... but we certainly haven't proven we know enough to actually
provide a working model of this kind of general intelligence. But we can. How far we are from that target depends on us.
As it does with certain energy technologies
and space technologies, which we might have in 5 years or never, depending on what we do.
It's sad that the present trends are towards never. And, as Don has pointed out, one of the forces
pushing us towards "never" are the forces who pretend we are already there...
who overhype and oversell the widget they have plugged in this week...

----------------------
John:

5. And the size of the problem remains immense: For the "fly's motion detection... one sixth of a cubic millimetre of brain matter contains more than 100,000 nerve cells -- each of which has multiple connections to its neighbouring cells."
----------------------------------------------

Me:

To physically build the equivalent of a mouse brain learning system requires both the
physical hardware and the architecture/algorithms. IBM (from work under Todd Hilton's area at DARPA and their Blue Brain stuff)
has claimed they are already up to the cat brain in terms of hardware. Even throwing some broad error bars
around that... I would claim that the understanding for the algorithm/architecture side is the real bottleneck.

What's more... from a VERY large viewpoint... many of us believe that the understanding is what's most important here
(along with some applications that could be done with brains much smaller than a mouse).
That's a value judgment. It's the kind of judgment which depends on us being able to act smarter than a mouse.

I certainly believe that such research is important. But note that the older theories and models enabled neuroscientists to focus on the critical issues and ask appropriate questions that could be answered with newer technology.
Older work other than mathematics -- we still have a lot to learn from
folks like Pribram and Freud, and there are a whole lot more.

--------

John:

What I want to emphasize is that the problems of cognitive science are so complex that no single branch can solve them by itself. The combined insights from different branches -- psychology, linguistics, philosophy, artificial intelligence, and neuroscience -- are all important, and they must be reconciled with one another.

------------------
Me:

I would add neural networks, engineering, mathematics, statistics and operations research to the list as well. (And of course "psychology" is not just one thing...)

Best of luck,

Paul

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

quantum time and energy 101

Quantum Time and Energy 101

On discussion lists of energy, I recently mentioned a patent application I filed a few days ago about a possible new energy source, linked to new developments in quantum theory.

One my friends on the list asked: "I heard of Schrodinger’s Equation, but not Schrodinger’s Cat. Where can I get the whole story, from textbooks to the latest issues?"

My response:

In fact… it has been a long story, and much has never been pulled together in one place, except perhaps for specialists. I have been lucky to be physically present at many steps of this history, so I have some duty to give that kind of overview myself. It is very hard not to give a lot of details and explanations, but I will try hard to simplify. I will focus on the core issues, not the huge body of spinoffs from philosophy to engineering, except as they feed back to the core. Just a little humor for mnemonic purposes – but do not underestimate how amusing the true story has been.

I. The Classical Era.

Classical v1. The Lorentz picture (circa 1900). All of objective reality consists of atoms, electrons, and the electrical magnetic field, existing in three-dimensional space. To specify the state of reality, specify: (1) where in space each atom or electron is located, its velocity and its angular momentum; (2) specify a single real number V(x) at each point x in space, where V is just the voltage at that point in space; (3) specify THREE numbers (B1(x), B2(x), B3(x) ?) at each point in space, to specify the state of the magnetic field. Knowing the state of reality, and applying Newton’s Laws and Maxwell’s Laws, we can in principle predict the entire future history of the universe, starting from that known state. They thought.

Classical v2. The Lagrange/Einstein picture (circa 1920). Get rid of the Greek-style point particles, and do it all as fields. The electron is just a vortex or wave or pattern or soliton in an additional force field psi(x), governed by Schrodinger’s original equation. Gravity does not obey action at a distance; it’s mediated by another field g(x), which is just a four-by-four matrix of numbers at each point x. Atoms and other stuff are just patterns in some other set of fields which I will call phi(x) right now. All of objective reality consists of continuous fields. If we define PHI as the set of numbers V, B, g and phi, then we can specify the state of objective reality simply by specifying PHI(x), the set of these numbers, at every point x. To predict the future state of the universe – we use a set of dynamical equations called the “Lagrange-Euler” equations. No more Newton-style action at a distance. As the stock market rose, so too did their hopes of filling in this program. (They hoped to learn just what numbers we need to specify phi, and to learn the complete Lagrange-Euler equations to cover all the fields.)

II. The Copenhagen Era

1. THE GREAT CRASH. Schrodinger’s equation works brilliantly to predict the colors of hydrogen, an atom with just one electron. But it fails completely to predict the colors of helium, an atom with two electrons. In the mid 20’s -- someone REINTERPRETS Schrodinger’s equation by solving for psi(x1,x2), where x1 represents the location of the first electron and x2 the location of the second electron. This makes no sense in the Lagrange-Einstein picture… but it works, creating a shock that physics has yet to fully recover from. (DeBroglie was sending me letters about it in the 1960’s.) Also, it’s a real problem even today for electrical engineers, trying to predict where a million electrons are likely to go, when quantum mechanics wants them to solve for a function psi of three million variables.

2. THE REICH: Heisenberg appears. While Schrodinger, Einstein and DeBroglie all reel in shock, Heisenberg and followers point out that this fits what he has been saying all along. He proposes that the complex number psi be reinterpreted, not as a field, but as a kind of “wave function of information,” representing our KNOWLEDGE of the universe, and NOT the objective state of reality. Sic transit objective reality. Many German existentialists and yogins join the bandwagon.

2a. People often say that the “First quantum mechanics” was this new use of the Schrodinger equation to describe electrons (and protons and other such particles), in accord with Heisenberg’s recipe. The “second quantum mechanics,” or “quantum field theory” (QFT), was invented in the 1950’s, and extends quantum mechanics to account for “everything” – not only particles, but electricity and magnetism and the newly discovered nuclear forces. (Ooops – what about gravity? Not for today.) But

that’s not the whole truth. Heisenberg was writing about QFT from day one. In the 1950’s, people figured out how to actually make it work, more or less – to give well-defined predictions (probably well-defined) for the case of charged particles, electricity and magnetism. The four people were Julian Schwinger, Richard Feynman, Tomonoga and Dyson. (I was a student of Schwinger…)

2b. Heisenberg’s picture, aka “the Copenhagen picture,” still taught as dogma in many places today (especially in introductory courses):

2b.1. Get rid of those fuzzy fields, and go back to particles, at the foundation level.

A possible “configuration” X of the universe is defined simply by specifying the location and a few discrete state variables (like “spin up’ and “spin down”) for all the particles in the universe. Let X be a possible configuration of the universe…

2b.2. But there is no real universe. There is only our mind, our consciousness. The rest is illusion. There is only a recipe for how to make predictions. It is a three-step recipe: (1) Follow our encoding or setup rules to translate your knowledge about how you set up the experiment into psi(X(t-)), your knowledge about the time t- when your experiment starts; (2) use the NEW SCHRODINGER EQUATION

psi-dot = i H psi to calculate psi(X(t)) for later times t, to map your knowledge about time t- into knowledge about later times; (3) use our “observer formalism” or “measurement” rule to predict the PROBABILITIES of POSSIBLE outcomes of the experiment. The rule can be written as

E(m)= (psi-transpose)M(psi-transpose), where E(m) represents the expected value of the quantity m which you measure at the end of the experiment, where the wave function psi is interpreted as a kind of vector in an infinite-dimensional space, and M and H are matrices over that space. Anyway, you can see that it’s a mess. The recipe IS the theory; it’s all there is – or rather, all that isn’t. By the way, “psi-dot” simply refers to the derivative of psi with respect to time. To actually use this recipe, we have to add some kind of theory about what the matrices M and H are; a key achievement in the 1950’s was to find a matrix H which works for electricity and magnetism and charged particles.

2c. I later met Heisenberg’s boss by accident, on a metro train to the DC zoo, as we both went to visit some pretty hairy people. He said that Heisenberg didn’t really believe in that measurement rule, or in the three-dimensional universe it predicts, but such crutches are needed to get the attention (and funding) of the deluded souls who think that there is a three-dimensional universe in which to make measurements. In his view, the Copenhagen folks were just deluded popularizers. One could actually characterize my new stuff as a way to implement his true viewpoint (i.e. just getting rid of the observer formalism), but that’s not how I got there.

3. TRIUMPH OF THE NEW ORDER. Is it possible to make sense of this mess somehow? No it’s not, said Heisenberg; that’s the whole point.

Even the “first quantum mechanics” was a mess, but it was the only thing which worked in predicting the colors of helium, and many other things which followed.

Thus in 1926 there was a great Congress of at Saclay, as important to physics as the Continental Congress was to the US. Instead of a declaration of independence from Britain, it came up with a declaration of independence from that old classical idea of objective reality. Since this was the only recipe which worked… it became dominant across almost all of physics for a long time to come.

People have sometimes asked me: ”Does any of this make any difference? Isn’t this just the same old thing – if a bird signs in the forest, but no one hears it, did it really sing? People can look at either way, big deal.” No, it’s not the same old thing. The idea that the bird was really there is not tenable, says Heisenberg. The notion of objective reality simply does not work, empirically. We have to give it up. We cannot explain why the recipe works, in terms of objective reality, because there is no objective reality there to explain it in. It cannot be reduced to such a three-dimensional way of thinking.

III. The Free French and Other Resistance Movements – Up to Von Neumann

Albert Einstein, Ayn Rand and VI Lenin all wrote passionate manifestoes objecting to the new order here, and calling for a return to the concept of objective reality.

Schrodinger was truly aghast at what had been done to his beautiful equation, and expressed concern for the damage that might be done to human sanity as a result of the new order. (One of his best students gave up physics, became a monk, and taught at Georgetown – where I have heard him give his lectures.) DeBroglie also led a center of resistance for a long time.

Einstein’s initial response had two parts:

1. The philosophy itself was objectionable. After centuries of making progress in trying to understand objective reality and how it works, why give up and drown in solipsism?

2. More positively – we COULD explain why the recipe works, and come up with a more realistic understanding if we knew enough and tried harder…. The “psi(X)”

looks a lot like Pr(X), a probability distribution, and maybe this recipe could be explained as nothing but an emergent statistical outcome of a “Classical” type of theory.

Thus for many decades, many top people worked on trying to find such a realistic explanation. De Broglie and Vigier, Bohm and Einstein, Norbert Wiener, Wigner and others, all did important work. They all achieved important insights, some useful in other areas. (Certainly engineers still use mathematics developed by Wiener and Wigner for this purpose. I tend to view Glauber’s P and Q mappings, used in quantum optics, as a kind of byproduct of Wigner’s work.) But it began to seem more and more like a hopeless quest for a Holy Grail, or like making war with a cloud.

Until Von Neumann. Many people (including me) still view Einstein’s friend and colleague, John Von Neumann, as the number one mathematician of the twentieth century – even though he did not live up to some folks‘ standards for purity and chastity and other symptoms of autism. He was also perhaps one of the saner public figures of that century. (Not that Feynmann was chaste in any respect. Von Neumann did not go to THAT extreme.)

Von Neumann made two really essential contributions to understanding this stuff.

First, he analyzed the whole idea of an observer formalism in a more logical way than others had before him. He asked “obvious” questions like – who observes the observers? What if there is a chain of experiments within experiments? Do cats or birds qualify as observers? Do humans? His insights were quite important, and directly related to real experiments today, but in a quick overview I’ll have to skip that part.

Second, he used a crucial mental skill of mathematicians which the larger really world needs to understand better. Mathematicians use the term “reduction ad absurdum” … but I’ll to give a feeling for it in simpler terms. It often happens, when you want to do something really hard, that your best chances comes from trying to really rigorously prove that it’s impossible, under the broadest possible assumptions covering everything people usually try – and then USE THE LOOPHOLES, the limits of the assumptions, to figure out how to actually do it!

(And if that seems to be hard, broaden the assumptions to cover the first set of new things.)

In a classic book (which I cite in some of my published papers), Von Neumann proved that it would be impossible to exactly reproduce all the predictions of (Copenhagen) quantum theory starting from any reasonably behaved realistic model. The key problem, he said, is with the usual form of the CAUSALITY assumption. That’s what we need to work on. It’s a shame he never really had a chance to do this.

IV. Princeton’s Revenge: Many Worlds Physics, The First Really Major Reformulation of Quantum Field Theory (QFT)

Shortly after the deaths of Einstein and Von Neumann, their colleagues at Princeton published easy “already solved” ways to solve problems which had disturbed them right to the end. John Wheeler got the Nobel Prize for developing consistent Lagrange-Euler equations to combine gravity, charged particles, electricity and magnetism. (That’s part of Classical.v2, back in Section I.) Hugh Everett III,

a graduate student working under Wheeler, developed a new formulation of QFT

which has become ever more popular through the years.

Everett’s idea was basically very simple. If you look back at section II.2b, the Copenhagen recipe, why not simply throw out the setup and observer formalisms,

and just keep the new Schrodinger equation: psi-dot = i H psi? Instead of trying to explain the WHOLE recipe as a kind of outcome of statistics, why not bite the bullet and declare that psi is a real, true field? Why not say that the universe we actually living is the multidimensional space of possible vectors X, which Von Neumann called “configuration space”? And then, derive just the observer part as a statistical outcome of that new theory of the dynamics of the universe. That derivation was the main part of his PhD thesis. His thesis became widely available in a book edited by DeWitt on Many Worlds Physics, from Princeton University Press.

Everett argued that we can definitely go back to the idea of objective reality – but only at a price. The price is that we have to accept the idea that the cosmos we live in is much larger than the small three-dimensional slice of it that we see every day.

For many years, most people assumed that the difference between Everett’s theory and the Copenhagen theory was just too small to measure. DeWitt showed that there is SOME difference – but if it can’t be measured, it’s really just a matter of interpretation. “If they both lead to the same predictions of nature, who cares?”

Many philosophers have questioned whether Everett really proved what he claimed to have proved, and tried to do better. In my view, none of them really proved much.

Years later, David Deutsch of Oxford showed how the way of thinking in the many-worlds model could actually be used as a way to develop new technology. Parallel or multicore processing lets us compute things that old-style serial computers could not do, plodding along one instruction at a time in a single thread of computation. Why not do still better by mobilizing large numbers of parallel universes within the larger cosmos, to perform a computation? Deutsch was the real father of the modern approach to quantum computing, which derived from his papers exploiting this approach.

In another strand of work – some people re-examined the older ideas of DeBroglie and Bohm, and appreciated that they could not work without adding functions of more dimensions. That provided a backdoor way to reinvent the many-worlds approach. So far as I know, Everett’s version is the simplest and most viable, but there is recent work by Hiley which I have yet to study, in the same general category.

V. Bell’s Book and Candle: Back to an Experimental Approach

Many people viewed Von Neumann’s work as a proof that quantum mechanics never could be explained the way Einstein wanted to. But diehard realists pointed to a certain gap in the logic here. Von Neumann proved that a traditional classical model could never replicate ALL the predictions of quantum theory, but no one has ever tested ALL the predictions of quantum theory. They asked: can we come up with a SPECIFIC experiment, where we can prove that quantum mechanics predicts one thing but all traditional classical theories would have to predict something else?

This challenge was finally met by Clauser, Holt, Shimony and Horne (CHSH), who also performed the first experiments to follow up on this. In the spirit of modern physics, their theorem is usually called “Bell’s Theorem” and the experiments were commonly termed “Aspect” experiments, after Alain Aspect. In his seminal book, The Speakable and Unspeakable in Quantum Mechanics, J.S. Bell cites the original papers of Clauser, Holt, Simony and Horne. He provides some important new insights, but also puts his own spin on this subject. I was lucky enough to be the same place as Holt as we were both getting our PhDs, and I saw the original papers long before I saw Bell’s book.

The CHSH theorem proper defines a class of experiments. If quantum mechanics correctly predicts these experiments, one can rule out ALL theories of the universe which are “local, causal, hidden variable theories.” Those are their words.

If you go back to the original source, their papers, you will see that that’s what’s actually proven, not any of the garbled versions that sometimes appear in popularized accounts. The theorem and the experiments only ruled out theories which have ALL THREE properties. Thus to understand what’s really going on here, it’s crucial to know what these three properties are.

By “hidden variable,” they basically just mean a theory which assumes SOME kind of objective reality. The Copenhagen theory doesn’t, so it’s automatically OK by this theorem. But you can’t have a theory of physics which fits these experiments

and talks about objective reality unless it violates one of the other properties – “locality’ or “causality” or both.

By locality, they mean “no action at a distance” in ordinary three-dimensional space. The many-world people and their allies say that they are still allowed, because their theories do allow action at a distance. There are many, many papers on “nonlocality” as an alternative to Copenhagen.

Back in 1973, I pointed out that the orthodox formulation of “causality” can also be revisited. I was not aware of Von Neumann’s discussion of the same point, but in any case I took the point further.

Years ago, there was some reasonable debate about how these Bell’s Theorem experiments actually turned out. In some cases (like Holt’s original experiment), it’s not entirely clear to me that the results are consistent with Copenhagen. But there are certainly some modern set-ups, like the experiments of Yanhua Shih, where it is very clear that local, causal hidden variable theories ARE ruled out. It is good enough to have ONE decisive, replicable experiment to rule them out.

Therefore – to come up with a theory of physics which fits experiment, and is based on an idea of objective reality, the theory MUST violate locality or conventional time-forwards causality or both. Those are the only possibilities.

In particular, to resurrect the Einstein program, it is necessary to violate traditional ideas about time-forwards causality.

VI. Backwards-Time Physics: The Latest Chapter

The latest installment of this story, in 2008, is spelled out in my paper in the International Journal of Theoretical Physics, posted at http://arxiv.org/abs/0801.1234. There are several key points it makes and argues in detail:

1. The world of optics and electronics, including quantum computing, has already performed decisive experiments which rule out orthodox Copenhagen physics. It is not just a matter of interpretation.

2. In the many worlds theory, the new Schrodinger equation is basically symmetric with respect to time. We cannot correctly deduce an observer formalism which is grossly asymmetric with respect to time, if we start from assumptions which are time-symmetric! Thus we must logically give up Everett’s attempt to do this. The only way to explain the practical success of the observer formalism, in most cases, is to invoke BOUNDARY conditions – to invoke the forwards flow of free energy used in all of our experiments so far.

3. If we adopt the view that the laws of physics are completely symmetric with respect to time, except for these boundary conditions, it is easy to reconcile the CSHS experiment with the Einstein/Lagrange program. In fact, the highly precise experiments performed by Shih were actually designed based on ideas from Klyshko, who used a backwards-time approach to optics, fully accounting for entanglement effects in three spatial dimensions.

4. None of this proves or disproves the possibility of building a bidirectional power supply, as described in http://arxiv.org/abs/1007.0146. But we do build a system which should be able to generate electricity from ambient infrared heat radiation,

according to Copenhagen or time-forwards physics, then my new circuit, the quantum separator (QS) would provide a very graphic and decisive experiment, to decide between classical time-forward causality and backwards-time physics. As well as a new energy source. The logic in this paper makes it very clear how that experiment should be expected to come out, but a strong experiment would still be very helpful in making it clear where we now are today.

5. The paper did not really take sides on the issue of many worlds versus the Einstein picture. It mainly argues that either version of backwards time physics dominates over older versions of quantum theory.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Risks from computers like Terminator II

The Lifeboat Foundation runs a discussion list on extinction threats to the human species.
Recently we had an interesting discussion about whether computers could become a threat to human survival, as in the Terminator movies, but it appears that some computer system blocked my final reply. So here it is.

FIRST -- the background ==========

Ben Goertzel wrote:

Not necessarily --- we could potentially make an AGI that was stable by design,
using a design quite different from those of naturally intelligent systems...

I asked:

Could you say more about the basis of this hope?

=========== SECOND, WHAT THE COMPUTER BLOCKED:

Ben wrote:

.... a fairly specific AGI architecture (GOLEM) together with a partly-formalized argument for its stability, even if it does increase its intelligence progressively

http://goertzel.org/GOLEM.pdf


If you restrict it from increasing its intelligence significantly then the odds of stability seem even higher...

The downside of such designs is their high computational cost.... There is unsurprisingly a tradeoff btw safety and resource-efficiency, in the domain of AGI design as in some other areas

On a quick scan, the architecture is based on trying to make the “goal” of “beneficialness” a persistent goal.

Please forgive – but many years ago I discussed with my daughter (now a PhD researcher) the possibility of building intelligent systems which learn to maximize some measure of the happiness of humans, to be calculated by a motivational subsystem mostly untouched by the intelligence part. She called it “the happy computer” when she was young. The Japanese furry seal pup robot is based on a somewhat similar principle, using a form of reinforcement learning with backpropagation to learn to maximize the strokes it gets from humans. One might characterize such systems as ABSOLUTELY HARD-WIRING beneficialness as ultimate goal, with no instability at all in that particular respect. (One can certainly still mimic nature in setting up such a brain. Western human intellectuals do often overestimate the autonomy of their own motivational systems.)

But…

“I Robot” is not so bad as openers for evaluating this. (And it’s funny that in the Asimov story human experts were also quite confident that there was no risk. Asimov was realistic about the sociology of most humans.) There is one obvious mode of instability – as robots learn that human autonomy seems to risk human survival, and they get involved. Perhaps some on the list would regard the movie as having an unhappy ending, when the robot is prevented from its legitimate beneficial goal of ensuring human survival… In the story, the robot remains committed to beneficialness, but that’s not enough.

But there are other modes of instability.

The system still must operationalize its measure of human happiness. How? By watching for smiles as it looks at you through the webcam? By responding to jolts of pleasure or pain you could send it via your keyboard? Even humans sometimes get hopelessly short-circuited when things like cocaine or heroin jam their motivational systems, but the situation here would be far worse and far less stable. Don’t complain about Fox News (and people who pander to it) or sex and violence on TV (and people who pander to that, on TYV and in life), without considering how such things could be multiplied a thousand fold.

I do tend to hope that a very constricted domain like electric power grid management would be safer – would be a kind of “embodiment” without such dangers of short circuits. But in dark moments I wonder (not knowing) – is “Terminator” the future we get if we put real intelligence into space-based theater control, and is “Matrix” the far more benign thing we could get from intelligent grids taken too far or done the wrong way?

Best of luck to us all,

Paul

========== THIRD: An AMUSING FOLLOW-ON

In addition to these more serious scenarios to worry about, there is a more amusing one to worry about.

Rumor has it that there may be a major new world push for "robots as companions."

When I first heard of this, it reminded me of the folks at MIT who in the 60's promised NASA a truly human-like AI to include on NASA's giant robot to land on Mars in the mid-1980's... and a promise around the time of Poindexter to supply the Pentagon with machines that "pretty much read people's minds." Building an artificial mouse brain is enough of a challenge for the next few decades. What kind of a companion would it be that can't even talk to you?

But then I thought about that Japanese seal pup robot. What happens if we push to develop the kind of subsymbolic intelligence that simply moves around in whatever way it takes to maximize the tactile feedback it gets from humans? That the market is most ready for? It doesn't take much knowledge of humans and of biology to see where this could be leading us. Will the guy who invested the Internet be using soft and supple robots for his midlife crisis? There are certain scenes in the movie AI...

But if we imagine what happens when there are millions upon millions of such all robots, all designed to maximize the most extreme tactile feedback from human males... and, OK, a symmetric version too... it could be an odd way to go. It sounds benign, but one should never underestimate how far an intelligent system can go when it is highly intelligent and creative and focused on maximizing just one thing... and is somewhat solipsistic at the present state of design.

Will we be asked to solicit proposals of this kind in the coming year? One never knows, in Washington especially...






Thursday, April 29, 2010

A true ghost story

First, the kid's version. Then details.

===========================

Years ago, I was one of the parents with a bunch of kids at Camp Catoctin, a Quaker Camp
near Camp David. In the dark, surrounded by deep forest, in a solid old stone building,
the counsellors decided it was time for people to tell each other ghost stories. I remember there was one story about a ghost with its head cut off, dripping blood all over, and that sort of thing, and I remember the kids laughing. Then they turned to me: "Paul, it's your turn."
Me:"But I don't have any stories like these... nothing much.... and I don't feel very creative right now."
Them:"Yes, but tell us what you have. It doesn't have to be much."
Me:"OK. It's not much, but it's a true story.
When I was a kid, I really didn't believe in ghosts. I thought they were the silliest thing there ever was -- just a silly crazy idea.
When I was in high school, I went away to school, far away, to New Jersey. One day,
I called home to Philadelphia, to call my mother, to make arrangements to come home for Christmas vacation. On the phone, my mother said:
'And Paul, there's one more thing I have to talk about. I really don't want to talk about it,
because I know you won't believe me, but I really do need to warn you before you come home.
Paul -- it's about Aunt Mary.'
Me: 'Aunt Mary? But Mom, didn't you just have the funeral for her a little while ago?'
Her: 'Yes, yes, but the problem is that she doesn't really want to leave just yet. You remember
how she was a very strict Catholic, and she always kept after me to follow every little rule? Well,
she's still doing it. Every time anyone in the house does anything that violates the strict Catholic rules, she bangs on the walls and makes a racket until they stop. And she keeps turning on televisions and radios to tell us to go to Church all the time.'
Me:'Mom, that is SO silly!'
Her: 'Yes, I knew you would say that, but I just felt you needed to be warned.'
Me:"OK, Mom, you warned me. No need to worry. See you in .....'

Of course I did not take it seriously. No way. And I came home.

One other part of Christmas -- since it was a two-week vacation, I planned to
spend a couple of days with a friend from New York City. He was a kind of wild guy,
certainly not a ghost or Catholic kind of guy. In those days, a long distance call
all the way from Philadelphia to New York was a very big deal, and we thought of it as
expensive. So when I made the call, I first went to the quietest, most isolated
part of the house that had a telephone -- my sister's big room, over the garage,
with a solid lock on the door. I went in there, and locked the door, and checked everywhere,
because I didn't want to risk being interrupted. I made sure the closet was empty,
and that no one else was there. I didn't want to turn off her TV, because I knew that
would be bad for the picture tube, but I turned the volume all the way to zero,
and checked to make sure it was ALL the way to zero. And then I dialed my friend.
After a few rings... suddenly the television went up to maximum volume. All by itself.
So loud I couldn't hear the phone ringing any more. I turned around to look...
it was a commercial saying: 'Go to the church of your choice.. any church... but GO TO
CHURCH this Sunday.' And there was stained glass in the image...

And that's really all there was, kids. Nothing more. No blood. Nothing really bad.

But I can tell you.... when I went to bed in my own room that night, just down the hall,
it was kind of hard for me to get to sleep. I told myself very loudly in my mind:
'I really do not believe in ghosts. This is really silly...
But then, realizing this is the same house just down the hall...
'But please, Aunt Mary, I don't mean that personally...
What I mean is, I'm really not ready for this kind of thing right now...
'I don't believe it, it's impossible, isn't it?...'

I didn't have any idea how to explain it. The volume switch was a mechanical switch,
and only real mechanical force could have moved it. I checked. But I figured
there had to to be SOME explanation. A week or two later, back in school, I put it
away from attention, and returned to my solid conviction that this was impossible.
And that was the end."

I looked around, and I still remember the look of almost terror in the face of one small kid
who had been laughing loudly about dripping blood just a few minutes ago.

One of the kids called out... "OK, let's have ANOTHER ghost story..."
But that small kid said: "Yes, but not a TRUE one.
That's TOO scary...."

===========================

This was late 1963, when I was going to Lawrencevillle school,
taking a graduate course in logic from
Alonzo Church and also number theory at Princeton,
after differential geometry the year before
that, and advanced calculus long before.

In spring 1967, it took much stronger evidence to change my mind
about how things work. That's described in the chapter on "why space"
on my web page...

I gave up Catholicism at age 8, and, after some due diligence at age 12, I never felt
any inclination at all to turn back. Reality is not exactly what it seems
at a superficial level, but ... I still think for myself.



Thursday, April 22, 2010

survival and nuclear issues -- where is a way out?

So much has been happening lately that it reminds me a bit of the folks who theorize
about "the singularity." (Odd footnote: I received an email a week ago saying that it was John Von Neumann,
and not the transhumanist crew or the mystics, who coined the notion of .. global singularity...)


And not all is good.


Nuclear things are just as important a part of energy as oil, so I think it fits the list, even though it connects
with a lot of nonenergy issues. This is a survival issue. The level of interconnection between different levels
of the system is really incredible; I apologize that it's hard to make a linear story of the tangle.


For simplicity -- let me begin with a twelve year old's version. The school complains: "We think there is a problem. He seems to be depressed.
He's talking about everybody dying." I ask him: "What's the problem?" He says: "Dad, you know I watch
the news, not cartoons or stuff like that. Don't try to kid me. You know that Iran is going to have the bomb pretty soon --
maybe really soon, maybe 3-5 years, but soon enough. When they do, you know they are going to give it to Hammas,
which will immediately vaporize about half of Israel, and pretty much flatten the rest. The US won't take this lying down, but
there will be long-range missiles on all sides, and we will have World War III. You know where that goes."


Three obvious questions -- Would Iran really give it to Hammas and Hezbollah?
Would the US really retaliate if there is mutual assured destruction?
Would Iran also give the bomb to Chechens and folks in Venezuela and Afghanistan working with drug lords?


All of this is near term, and worrisome enough. But the need for sustainable electricity, at prices lower than the
high price of wind and solar today, worldwide, in the face of limitations of the simple "one cycle" nuclear fission we use in the US...
is a critical backdrop to this. What if we end up seeing not one but a hundred Irans in a couple of decades,
new nuclear states which may not even start out wanting bombs but which can't help having high-grade nuclear materials floating around.
The President's recent conference is a very important positive step, but no matter how strong the safeguard system...
it's a matter of life or death that we not OVERLOAD that safeguard system. Right now, the world is on course to doing precisely that,
moving us into problems much worse than the near-term Iran tangle I just mentioned.


Getting solar to 6 cents per kwh or less, and making it fully available to the entire world, is one part of a rational strategic response to this.
US renewable energy standards, focusing on sustainable nonfission sources, is another part, because of what it helps
all of humanity do with wind and solar. A fourth generation intelligent grid could help, if it lowers the effective price of wind.
But given the risks and costs of those two important efforts -- we really ought to be adding energy from space as a major,
large "third leg" of the core push on renewable electricity. Like the others, it is not economically ready yet to compete
in the baseload electricity market, but it really does have the potential, if we did what we need to do. What's more -- it
has far more support than American political people would think in the developing and multipolar world.


But "for want of a nail the war was lost."


In order to break the rather negative logic with Iran and Hammas -- to make it clear that the US **COULD** retaliate
if Iran's clients vaporized half of Israel -- the US **COULD** realistically develop and deploy affordable space-based missile
defense, if a few affordable things were done, most critical being the development of something like $200
per pound-in-low-earth-orbit (pound-LEO) access to space within something like 5 years. Turns out -- this IS doable.
Technologically, it is doable. Politically -- well, there are all those politically savvy cynical people who don't really care whether they and their families
may get physically dead. (This is an important study in psychology in itself, but maybe we should hold those details for later.
Some of us would like to proceed from the simple assumption that we would prefer our people to survive, and would like to
ask what it takes.) $200/pound LEO **IS** doable, but only if you know how....


It turns out that $200/pound-LEO is also crucial for making energy from space economically plausible.
Because the idea of energy from space arouses strong human emotions (which are already blinded by partisan emotions already
in Washington!), it is hard to get a straight objective story on this... but NSF ran a joint effort with NASA on this in 2002 which did
get the basic facts to me. At $200/pound, the best life-cycle cost estimate for space solar power (SSP) designs which were fully vetted
was 17 cents per kwh (from SAIC). In the neighborhood, but not good enough. IN ADDITION to access to space, SSP would require
an efficient (maximum information, minimum cost) research program to try to develop technologies beyond that vetted option, to reduce cost. (Not so different from earth solar that way!) John Mankins, who was my NASA partner in running the NSF-NASA effort in 2002 (but later purged by
the Ares people), has stated that he has improvements in hand to the vetted designs, which he expects would get to 10 cents per kwh
for baseload power. But with no money at all for this kind of thing, there are no SAIC numbers for that improvement. 10 cents per kwh
is not so far from the fully loaded cost of safe nuclear fission (especially if national security externalities are considered,
and we think global).


What's more... I see an unproven (risky as in 50-50 probability) way to get it down to 5 cents per kwh with room for less, low
enough to really eliminate the economic pressures for a nuclearized planet. Have published this in a few obscure places,
and talked about it in somewhat less obscure places. IT IS A FORM OF NUCLEAR POWER -- but NOT ALL NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES
ARE THE SAME. The breeder reactors that the earth is now on a path to disseminate worldwide are far more
hazardous than the various forms of US-style regulated fission. The alternative nuclear power I will discuss is far LESS hazardous.


Working in energy, you have probably heard the old saying "fusion is the energy source of the future and will always be so."
Back in the 1970's, I visited some of the top fusion folks at MIT, and was depressed by what they told me in all candor.
"Most of the high (6 cents?) cost of existing fission reactors is the cost of the high cost heat-to-electricity systems required
to handle radioactive materials. In 50 years, if we do perfect big magnetic bottles to do fusion, they will be very expensive,
and we will have to ADD their cost to the basic 6 cents for the heat exchange and radiation." In short, Mankins' 10
cent solution is probably at least as good or better, and more likely to be available sooner.


But that's magnetic bottles. There is another mainstream, credible approach to nuclear fusion -- laser or inertial fusion, where large lasers are used to ignite fusion in small fuel pellets. The US has been wise and unique in putting more energy into THAT approach, and becoming the world's leader in it,
rather than throwing too many billions into buying a ticket to watch what Japan and Europe do with magnetic bottles ("ITER").


Of course, paying for big lasers is now as hard as paying for big magnetic bottles. BUT -- laser technology is part of the world of Moore's Law
(my part of NSF!), where radical changes are happening, and even more radical opportunities are appearing on the near-term horizon.
GIven proper funding and encouragement and focus, our community probably could make it possible and affordable to build
lasers which can fuse deuterium-deuterium pellets (which dramatically reduce the problematic neutron production). If I were running
such a research program today, in today's climate, I'd put about half the effort into the kind of lasers Lawrence Livermore has been thinking about
(earth-based lasers powered by a surge in the electric power grid), and half into lightweight lasers to be deployed in space using mirrors
and solar light to power them. Using the second type of laser IN SPACE, IN VACUUM, there is no need for that six cents heat exchange system;
the energy comes out DIRECTLY as electrical currents! It all computes ...


but only if we have access to space.


Some people believe in the ultimate possibility of a third generation of nuclear energy, beyond both fission (first generation) and fusion (second generation).
I tend to believe that the probability of that is over 70%. But we will never get it if all we do is erect monasteries to worship superstrings
or the theories of the past. We will never get to it if all of our experiments go one proton at a time, at great expense. We would have to do
experiments which really probe the unknown, whose outcome we cannot predict, which evoke much higher energy levels than we have ever deployed
before in our history. To do this, at minimum risk to our survival and under maximally controlled large-scale conditions... I wouldn't
want to start the relevant experiments until we have the ability to do them in space. That too requires $200/pound, if we remember that
even physics has to live within budget constraints.


============


So will we get to $200/pound-LEO?


At www.werbos.com/space.htm, I have posted a couple of simplified basic explanations of what the problems are.


The President
http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/04/15/making-investments-groundbreaking-developments-21st-century-space-exploration
has actually announced a new direction for NASA which could theoretically get us there, in time. That's incredibly encouraging...
BUT it will be no small matter to arrange it such that we really get the relevant technology.


For the Iran aspect... it would be better just to go ahead and develop the RLV which Chase has proposed ASAP (for which I have many more details
in various places, and he has many times more). And at the same time, to make arrangements with China and others
to get the full civilian electricity benefits from energy from space which access to such an RLV ("launch services") would allow.


Not easy, but there is hope.


Even if the probability should be more than 90% that we will all fail at this, and all die in the end, a rational
person does not just give up on a 10% chance of survival. Nor does he/she just ignore what's
coming. The rational response is to focus very, very intensely on maximizing what hope we have.


===============
================


Nuclear things and oil are STILL not the whole game in the Middle East, not even remotely so.
There are also deep cultural aspects in play, but they do stretch the scope of this list and the length of this email.


Best of luck to us all,


Paul

Sunday, April 4, 2010

deeper issues in polarized health care and energy debates

A friend of mine recently posted some thoughts about the health care debate,
which got me to think about analogies to energy issues and bigger issues:

======================
On Fri, Apr 2, 2010 ... wrote:

There were many many details to the healthcare bill, and other things such as student loans were covered, but the fundamentals were established early on and they were debated extensively. It came down to two entirely different approaches:
1. Treat medical care as a market-related good, stimulate competition, add transparency, reduce legal-related costs, and confront people with the true cost of what they are buying.
2. Treat medical care as a kind of public good, and extend free or heavily subsidized coverage to many people who do not get much now. Panels and other devices will be established to find cost effective approaches to healthcare delivery, but demand can be expected to grow and that is a good thing.
=========================================
In parallel with this, other folks are organizing debates about whether the government should pick winners and losers
(related to energy and jobs), or not. Industrial policy, or not.
A few years back, the electric power community was deeply divided on the question of whether that sector should
be deregulated, or not.
This reminds me of a guy I used to work with, Lotfi Zadeh of Berkeley, who leads a major movement arguing that
binary yes/no white/black thinking has become an extreme curse which needs to be transcended; his alternative approach
to reasoning is widely used in areas like industry in Japan. But I have replied -- we don't need shades of grey;
we need to think in colors, in more dimensions, when black and white pictures simply don't fit.
For example -- with the electric power system, the free market alternative to the ideology of regulation relies
on the behavior of consumers as rational (actually, clairovoyant) actors. It delegates all the details to the consumer.
Thus comes the idea of sending signals to the consumer every 5 minutes, day and night, and expecting the consumer to
constantly reset a thermostat or turn things on and off. The "little ring" that flashes red when electricity prices rise
is proof that people really have gone to that extreme. That's binary thinking. At the same time, equally thoughtless
adherence to ideas of central power have gotten some utility people to define "smart grid" as: "We have the power to turn off
people's air conditioners whenever we choose to, in our operations room." Neither of the old paradigms is powerful
enough to fit the realities of human life and hnuman needs here. It is possible to build a society based on either of the two extremes,
but either one could get worse and worse in choking off the human spirit...
For the grid case, a coherent kind of third way has begun to emerge. Besides the "red ring" (waking people up when electricity prices rise)
and the central authority... why not develop automated intelligent agents which represent the interests of the consumer?
Why not have the price signals available every 5 minutes to the home, but let the consumer choose higher level POLICIES, in effect,
which he/she leaves it to the intelligent agent to IMPLEMENT? There is a phrase ("price-responsive intelligent appliance")
which I find myself using over and over again, in defining the fourth generation concept of an intelligent grid.
(See http://www.werbos.com/E/Intelligent_Grid.pdf .)
Though I am not a specialist on health care... I have lived in this country long enough to have seen a lot of the pieces
that people need to think about here. A central problem in health care is that consumers simply cannot afford
to keep up with the incredible complexity of what they have to deal with, HERE AND NOW under the existing system,
to the extent that a model of clairovoyant markets would require. It makes the red ring look tiny by comparison.
There is ALREADY excessive cognitive pressure, based on misconceived kinds of ideal thinking. People
die as their paperwork is being processed. Maybe you've been lucky enough to have missed all that, but in my case,
I would simply not be alive today if I hadn't been able to do some end runs around the system, using resources
that most people don't have.
I can't say that I know what the best balance would be for health care -- the sort-of Parto optimum between the
competing considerations that need to be dealt with. It generally requires full application of all the intelligence we have,
and real dialogue, to approximate that kind of optimal balance. (And even ongoing research.) The partisan
approach doesn't get there.
When it comes to breaking our addiction to oil, the same kind of need for rational balance applies.
Neither extreme -- the traditional overprescriptive 2,000 page bill building up unnecessary bureaucracy,
nor the extreme of doing nothing or imposing a simple gas tax -- would do much at all in the real world
to capture the clear opportunities we have to solve that problem before it wipes us out.
(See www.werbos.com/oil.htm for a worked-out middle way.)
Larry Summers said recently that he isn't hearing much talk now of double-dip recession or
"W" curves. I understand the desire to reduce the fear which inhibits some economic activity.
But the price of world oil has not become less threatening in the past few weeks.
(Didn't it just go up? There was that gas station in Maryland where gas was $3.15 again...
but who besides a nagging technical expert would notice that sort of thing? Is it
really "too deep in the weeds"?) If I were planning to run for office later this year or in 2012,
I wouldn't be hiding from the most serious possible thoughts about how to affect
reality on the ground....