Scientific Foundation of Fear, and Threats of Extinction of the Human Species

First, I thank Yeshua ben David for his thoughtful comment on the video conversation with the Chile Council on Foresight, https://youtu.be/TT5n10Co8hM which they are using as input to BOTH parties in the major national elections which start tomorrow. I forwarded Yeshua's comments back to them, and they replied just now: ================================================================= Good morning Paul, glad to learn that you posted the video link in different places, also the drive link. I did the same. The email from Yeshua Ben David, very interesting on the dramatic situation of Venezuela, and also his comments about the crisis of integrity we are facing all over the world, but mainly in latin america. It is important what he said, that you continue inspiring people to find ideas and solutions. I completely agree with that. It's a good idea you should consider expanding the outline of the book to include those two new sections. I think the book will be a very useful contribution to knowledge and an "opening minds tool" . ================= THE DRAFT PROPOSED IEEE book I mentioned will focus intensely on climate and energy security, but this conversation with the Chile Council, and my other activities, led me to think I should consider expanding my proposed section of the book ("What have we missed?", a less formal chapter looking to the future) to include subsections or chapters on the internet risks (mostly a fear item, like climate) and on connection to the noosphere (a hope item, ever so connected to climate). ==================================================== But people have asked whether anyone SHOULD do anything about FEARS like the FEAR of worst case climate change, which will be a major section of the new book (if it is approved). In fact -- FEAR ITSELF is extremely fundamental to the human mind, to the mammal brain, even to the soul and to artificial general intelligence AGI). It is far more universal and fundamental than qualia like "redness"!! Those of us who are serious and sane students of first person human experience DO INCLUDE fear in our serious studies, even in FIRST PERSON SCIENCE. Those who do not are what I have called "spiritual coach potatoes," a very important phrase which I thank Yeshua for reminding me of yesterday. Fears of extinction of our entire human species are an important SPECIAL CASE of fear, but the GENERAL CASE is an important starting point we should all study on these two lists. MATHEMATICS is the most solid and universal foundation for the study of consciousness and intelligent systems. See the open access journal paper https://internal-journal.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnsys.2016.00097/full for a review of the evidence that mammal brains DO FIT a special class of neural network model, models based on "RLADP", neural networks designed to learn how to maximize some kind of inborn U signal (aka telos, utility). I have given tutorials and papers on RLADP, from concepts to implementation, for decades. SOME CRUCIAL STARTING POINTS: * Some of us would even DEFINE an "intelligent system" as a system (form) designed or evolved to learn to maximize the long-term expected value of U over future time. U is basically inborn. (See Pribram's edited book https://www.amazon.com/Brain-Values-Biological-Monographs-Proceedings-ebook/dp/B073V2VNMT/ for a detailed explanation and, of course, lots of real neuroscience.) * But the mathematics of RLADP tells us that intelligent systems must contain components I call J or lambda, to bridge the gap between long-term values U and guidance for actions here and now. Thus "The theory that the brain is an RLADP machine basically is a fancy way of saying that our actions are all driven by hopes (J or lambda positive) and fears (J or lambda negative)." The specific brain circuits which implement J and U and lambda are identifiable and hardwired into the mammal brain. What CAUSES a feeling of hope or fear (J going up or down) VARIES as we learn, but the physical basis of the feelings themselves is permanent. Without hopes and fears, we would not be intelligent. Those humans who APPEAR devoid of hopes and fears are called "low affect" or "personality disorder" in psychology, for good reason. (Bernie Baars has rightly urged us to get copies of the standard desk reference on common human mental disorders.) Those who PRETEND to be free of hopes and fears, but who clutch in their stomach as they say it, are far more common, fortunately; those too appear in the manual, in many forms, varying from psychopathic liars to very conscious liars, to those whose words and meanings are utterly disconnected (somewhat like split brain experiment patients). The math demands both positive and negative aspects. Many of us first person scientists have studied what children do. They often have unrealistic fears they need to learn to outgrow, but also real threats (like cars as they cross the street) for whihc they must learn MORE/NEW and better defined fears, using their full focused intelligence. Because people do not enjoy fear, they usually learn a host of ways to cope with fears. I urge any serious student of the human mind to read one of the great longitudinal papers by Vaillant (like https://www.jordanbpeterson.com/docs/230/2014/25Soldz.pdf) , who did a catalogue of the common "defense mechanisms" people learn to cope with major fears of threats or stress. Some lead to gross failure in life, even for successful graduates of Harvard, while others do well. The technical defense mechanism called "denial", often biasing climate policy is the one which can drive anyone to death, at any level. There are more promising defense mechanisms, including those which support honest probing, science and collaboration -- as we work very hard to advance in the new IEEE book project!! It has been an incredible emotional roller coaster ride for me, especially, as I have trained my my "global workspace of consciousness" to be able to see realistic future scenarios very vividly, with all the required labels for probabilities and alternative outcomes, and as the very best evidence does change as one probes deeper and deeper. Best of luck. We ALL need it!!! ===================================== ======================================== Addendum: In one discussion, a friend asked: "**IF** we do take climate risk seriously, what can we do? Just send letters to our Congressman, or change our lifestyle?" I replied by expressing MY fear reaction to people who overuse the phrase "Think globally, act locally." I was happy to hear an old friend propose that many years ago, but I would now wonder whether he could foresee what a Frankenstein monster that morphed into! The new IEEE book proposal begins by stressing the need to build new NETWORKS of communication, connecting all the way from the bugs under the mud in the Amazon to the highest levels of legislative and investment decisions, WITH LOTS OF SOLID TWO-WAY CONVERSATION TO INTEGRATE IMPORTANT REALITIES IN THE MIDDLE LIKE WHAT IEEE COVERS. I even urged some chapter authors to think of themselves as neurons, urgently needed to connect both "up" and "down" (and sideways of course) to give our world the TYPE of collective intelligence that we now need even just to survive as a species!