Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Who is at risk now from climate surprisrs

In brief -- Peru, Norway. Scotland, Sevastopol to start..


---------- Forwarded message ---------

A friend asked just who is most at risk near term. That's complicated because there are different aspects of climate change. Still, I owe you a response for the H2S aspect, the most serious aspect neglected by mass media.

There are three streams of major damage due to H2S production in water and the ocean changes leading to them: (1) the Pacific Ocean stream, the most serious; (2) the Arctic/NorthAtlantic/Gulf stream; (3) local issues in places like the Black Sea and the Chesapeake.

From the first two color figures I copied into www.werbos.com/Atacama.pdf, it seems that the Pacific stream causes no damage until 2050 or so, after which it kills all humans. But I left out an important aspect there. As the oxygen content of the deep Pacific decreases, the oxygen content of the Humboldt current which cools Peru and Chile also decreases. Since it is a complex system, I do not know the curve by which it gets to zero, but it might well be a linear decrease by 3 percent by year by now. Since fishing is a huge part of this economy, that is serious. There is a natural cycle of about 20 years related to the natural El Nino cycle, but people tell me that problems have continued and grown even after the last 2014-2016 cycle ended. It may be possible to understand better via satellite data and such even without a need for US government support. (Again, important resources popped up when I googled on ocean oxygen satellite). 

After 2050 or so, when O2 in that stream hits zero, the stream will at some point convey H2S instead of O2.

The Arctic/../Gulf stream is more immediate, and also goes well beyond what we see in most of the media. The Economist did run a cover story "Will Britain freeze over?" a some years ago, based on the weather of Broyden (sp?) of Southhampton. The usual official fake news plscebo folks did their best to discredit this but (1) a few years later, he won a major prize for best o ean inputs to climateocels; (2) it only accounted for sputtering due to erratic salinity inputs, and not the effect of temperature direct on currents, which was zero in the past but will certainly be huge when the 0 degrees C line us crossed. As I mentioned before, Norway and Scotland freeze before England, but lots of other impacts occur, including straight H3S poison. The sheer stench may affect tourist industry in places like Peru before the more fatal effects.

The Black Sea is ALREADY a great reservoir of poison, but effects more limited because of no massive Coriolis currents like Humboldt. Still, it was interesting last week to read of a dispute between Ukraine and Russia about who gets the blame for a small cloud of poison gas in that area. The chemocline (the line between poison and more normal water) has risen a lot,and there may be more to come. I do wonder at times about Sevastopol and what might happen there, especially given Russian government positions on such things.

Other aspects of climate damage are well publicized, some more than what is publicized, some less. Scott's comments about damage to fishing are correct to the best of what I know. Hurricanes hitting the Gulf may be far worse when warming Gulf stream current weakens, because heat which now warms Norway will get hurricanes, relatively soon, but I stopped tracking the zero degrees C transition in Arctic when I shifted to Antarctic and other things in retirement. The importance of acid ocean has been vastly overstated in some places; many things attributed to it are more caused by agricultural and industrial runoffs, which are also central to the H2S streams.

Best of luck, Paul

 

Monday, September 10, 2018

Oops, Ma, Trump accidentally lost the entire galaxy, more to come

Sent to Howard Bloom this morning, in response to his message (see below) that SLS, the core of the NASA program today is...
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You are very right that SLS is a farce and a crisis. At some level Trump became aware of that, and his new space force efforts were the first serious hope in ages of the kind of breakthrough we would need for space politics to be more than futile BS, playing into the hands of those whose supreme goal is to steal more taxpayer money for nonproductive makework.

But Trump has a problem. How do you get ANYTHING done when all the competent people you know (aside from your daughter) are either the real leaders of the swamp or unreliable tricksters?

Following the advice of swamp creatures very close to him, he picked mike griffin to run the new dod space technology push, and a wide range of other things. Griffin is very highly trusted and recommended by folks like Senator Shelby, not because of technical depth and leadership but because of loyalty and reliability. Where did he prove these things and who is he really loyal to? None of the swamp monsters close to Trump told him: it is because of how he followed orders to the letter for Shelby in the 90 day study which emasculated Bush's push to return to the moon. If trump had picked former major general james armor to lead the space force effort, pulling him back into government and insisting he break with atk, I might still be optimistic, but under griffin i am very pessimistic, and i now have no channels to inform him and test whether he really wants results.

I am leaving the country for a couple of months now, for quick brief turnaround in November. (A DOD person has agreed to use our small but conveniently located house somewhat in the meantime.) This morning i have internet access, but i can only guess where I might have a little access between now and november 17. This problem is huge, but is only tip of a bigger iceberg.

The sad truth is that Musk is not the answer either.

In the years when NSF let me fund advanced hypersonics research, the old NSF system let me dig deep and find out what is really going on at a technical level, and get past all the BS and spin game dreams and propaganda. Truth and realistic advanced tech are a lot of work, requiring a dedication to truth, and Lamar Smith (Shelby ally) put an end to the old way of doing business, without which the US will never recover. In some areas, like antisatellite weapons, AI, batteries and quantum technology, China is moving so fast so far ahead of us that guys like Griffin cannot even see it (and wouldn't tell Trump how bad it REALLY is anyway ). But for space launch they rely on less competent parts of their own large nation, and i see little likelihood of similar breakthroughs, from them or from Musk.

But: it is out of my hands now, as I literally sail off into the sunset.

Best of luck. We all need it.

On Sun, Jul 29, 2018, 6:30 PM Howard Bloom <howlbloom@aol.com> wrote:

To: Howard Bloom <howlbloom@aol.com>
Sent: Sun, Jul 29, 2018 5:58 am
Subject: The Space Review: SLS: to be or not to be, or to be something else entirely

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/3429/1

SLS: to be or not to be, or to be something else entirely

by Dick Eagleson
Monday, February 12, 2018

Sailing into the sunset day one