Thursday, August 10, 2017

From the watch: who loves and supports King Kim

 I would prefer to work on certain equations today, but .. cleanup and the watch intrude.

On CNN just now, I saw Congressman Kinzinger, whom some folks are grooming to become their many in the White House. By now I have been in DC long enough hat I can sometimes tell who they have been talking to just by looking at the face, even before the words give it away. But no, it is not a good idea to name too many names.

The US security community at top levels has been polarized along one dimension more than the many others: those who plan to get ahead because of their external stakeholders, and those who really care about national security (though a variety of different honest perspectives). The folks who want maximum money for minimum work are really salivating about how much they love having Kim around, and they sure don't want any actions taken which would reduce the chances of staying there.

Some folks, hearing Kinzinger smile about all the new money for missile defense, might imagine that this will result in a much stronger US military, and maybe even a first strike capability. "We will do so much now, with all the new money." But no, those very same folks have taken substantial action to prevent anything like that.

If Kim sends missiles to Guam, if they land in US territory... well, the Japanese didn't expect much reaction to Pearl Harbor. They had studied how people like Roosevelt and his generals behaved...
If the missiles go exactly where North Korea has announced, Chinese help with GNC will immediately be suspected... whether from Xi or from folks he does not control would not much change the reaction. But if they go in the wrong place... well, that could also be interesting.

If the US does NOT try to intercept a previously advertized strike on US territory... that kills credibility in one way. But folks like Kinzinger's friends would not want it so obvious how they have lied and blocked real technology, so they may push for that. "Sooner die than be embarrassed... especially if it's really only a few million lives in the Bay area or Seattle who would pay the price."
(Marketing gets focused priority in some places; I know them well.)

Of course, China too has its own defense procurement people...

Who knows?

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