Saturday, March 1, 2014

bad dreams about the Ukraine

Should I post this or not? Hard to say.  Not something I feel any confidence about, but not something so minor it should clearly be ignored.

Long ago, when looking at various types of social and economic dynamics, I noticed the analogy between the Weimar Republic, after World War II, and Yeltsin's government in Russia -- also a place where wonded pride, eocnomic problems combined with high technological capability, a "tribal" anthropology, and a low tolerance for cognitive dissonance. But could it really go so bad this time?

Then when Putin made some really nasty deals versus Exxon and so on, I basically felt support from them. Why should be put up with folks trying to take over the country? Though with Gazprom and nationalized oil, I wondered: will tis be yet another politically aggressive oil company in itself? Will Russia itself become an oil company, without any inhibitions.

I really did not intend to become emotionally entangled in the conflicts in the Ukraine. Even though I have been there, and feel some knowledge... I am 'way overextended, and do not want to do more harm than good, as is commonly the case when people feel obliged to act out of ignorance. After all, I am not the President of the US.

But two nights ago, in my usual meditation period... many, many subjects came up for discussion..
but I couldn't help think about the analogy between the violent irredentists in Crimea and the Sudenten Germans. Would Putin really find himself irresistably tempted by the great glory of following the path of Hitler?

The response was... "No, it's not like Sudentenland. Georgia was Sudentenland. This is like Austria.
Are we approaching peace in our time again?And the new ideological organization in Russia is a kind of plutocracy not unlike Mussolini's."

Of course, the Russian view is that it's the falt of those dirty Ukrainians fro wanting to have their own nation, and violating the treaty hundreds of years ago when some politician signed Ukraine away to Russia.  But what was Putin thinking when he offered to bail Ukraine out, on the condition that the government defy its people and cut off new ties to the rest of Europe?  Didn't he know exactly what he was doing, preparing the way for Anschluss?

Luda told me weeks ago to read Clancy's last novel, that it would as before all come out as planned. But now, they seem to expect Anschluss instead, as they expect no capabilities from OBbama or the US.
After Syria... and Ron Paul...

Meanwhile, of course, a lot of big money folks are very upset about the prospect of choosing between
Hilary Clinton and Paul or Cruz in 2016. The opportunity for McCain and Jeb Bush to come in and rescue defense spending , in response to what Putin plans, is very much on the table. It's odd that Putin thinks Congress is a passive place. Whatever else it is, quiet and passive is not such a god discussion.

Meanwhile, the chemocline is rising. That's the top of the huge reservoir of poison which is
steadly rising, to emerge on teh surface at the Black Sea. I even had sme mpression it could do so right in the middle of the Olympics... and prayed hard that no, because that would NOT be a good time.

But what of now? But if people start suddenly dying n the night in Sevastopol, will there be a miscalculation by folks always looking for others to blame, whihc could cause even wider conflict?

ON top of this, some folks say "Of course NATO will not act. They need Russia's gas, and Schroder, the one guy positioned to lead the EU to energy independence, has been bought off by Gazprom.
Really, it doesn't stop with Ukraine. Listen to the chants in Crimea... it is the Germans they want to humiliate more than anyone else."

Or there could be an interesting new civil war, which Islamic extremists would be happy to manipulate, just as they manipulated Syria, when Russia created the opportunity for them to do so.

"God help us."

Best of luck,


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