Two days ago, the Financial Times ran a story: "Rising oil prices threaten to  derail the global recovery." That was in the section on Markets and investing.  Today there was a more authoritative op-ed on 'W-shaped recovery" which said  essentially the same thing.
Unfortunately, a whole lot people have learned  this year that "recession" can really mean THEM.. immediately.
**IF** we  took really strong action this year to break our addiction to oil -- something  which has YET to happen, and is not part of the Waxman Act -- would it be  relevant to
this immediate threat? After all, if takes 10 to 20 years for  some of these measures to take effect, what could it do about the possibility of  a re-crash as soon as next year?
Answer: a lot. In the first place, one  part of the required actions would immediately
stimulate PRIVATE SECTOR  investment, a very healthy way to stimulate the economy without adding to the  deficit. (Neither ordinary tax cuts nor government spending have that important  advantage.) In the second place, as the Financial Times makes very clear,
a  large part of the world oil price is a very healthy and proper adjustment based  on
FUTURE EXPECTATIONS of shortages and high prices; action which changes  those expectations, through real action and not just rhetoric which financial  folks know to ignore,
would change oil prices NEXT YEAR.
I just hope  it happens. Climate change politics may just gum up everything this  year,
unfortunately... without benefiting the climate either, or getting  anything passed. 
There is hope for now, but on the surface, it looks like a  very tough situation.
Monday, August 24, 2009
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