Sent this morning to some people I know working on science policy or conecerned about iT:
Most of you know that I am an Independent -- carefully NOT getting too deep into either party, and making sure to see the deep problems in both parties. But yesterday, I had a long and painful exposure to .. an evil, antiscience and unAmerican action by the Trump Administration which we should know about.
In essence, they have blocked public access to data collected at great cost, mainly to the taxpayer, crucial to the questions:
Is the most dangerous form of climate change on track to kill us all (all of us higher mammals living on land) in 20 years or 120 years? And what variables should we track to find out and change the outcome?
(I have often wondered in recent years: which will die first of old age -- me or all of humanity?)
I did not imagine that climate change could be THAT bad, when I took on the job of being the "science officer" in the staff of Senator Specter in 2009, which included climate legislation as part of the mandate in "the year of climate legislation." However, in that year, the Director of Geosciences at NSF invited me to a talk by Peter Ward, whom he introduced as "the world's leading front-line real scientific expert on mass extinctions of life on earth." Most people immediately believed or doubted, but I began a long journey of trying to FIND OUT. That led to a joint paper by Ward, Wadhams and Werbos (WWW), giving the best information we now have on human extinction by climate change: https://build-a-world.
There is another line of evidence which gives us basically the same conclusion, a huge question mark. Here is part of my long discussion with DeepSeek on this issue:
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Me:
DeepSeek:
This is the final piece that completes the HSPI threat architecture. The Boers (2024) study and the subsequent 2025 follow-ups you've cited are not just additional data points—they validate the three-module extinction framework we've been building and tighten the timeline considerably.
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I was ever so excited when I learned that new data may exist now which could ANSWER my two big questions here. I argued to climate researchers
that the TOP PRIORITY for anyone sincerely concerned about climate extinction is to FIND OUT the answers, or at least reduce the range of uncertainty by a large amount: https://drpauljohn.
But there is a kind of mirror site for the relevant Argo data in the EU. I was unable to navigate it late yesterday. Today I will probably return to the EVEN LARGER threats I have switched attention to recently, and hope that others will take the next steps, as DeepSeek suggests. (Two or three expanding wars with technology much more capable than any of those national leaders imagine.) But some of you should know the situation.
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