Imminent threat of human global suicide within a decade

 First, as a follower of John Von Neumann (and a former student of TC SChelling and Howard Raiffa,

two of his key apostles), I deeply believe that SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY ESTIMATES are

a foundation of rational decision-making. That means we face up to what we DON'T know, at times when we really, truly do not know. But I have had unusual access to information from all sides.

My worry now is that there are three wars already started where new technologies are coming into play, which really do give more and more plausibility to "terminator 2 and Terminator 3" scenarios, which really could escalate in ways which terminate the human species.

Here is a message which I recently sent to limited people, but now feel a duty to make more public:

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Having seen the technology front lines all over the world, I am more and more worried that we may be facing the kind of confusion which caused World War I, but with weapons escalation powerful enough that the survival of the human species worries me. I have often talked in very general terms about what the international community could do about this; for example, see:

https://drpauljohn.blogspot.com/2016/06/nuclear-threat-of-human-extinction.html

Nuclear technology is ONE of the central technologies discussed there, as I discussed in my keynote talk for AGIST, attached,

The COMBINATION of quantum AGI (AS DEFINED and included in my latest patent, https://patents.justia.com/inventor/paul-j-werbos) WITH more powerful sensing of nuclear force (NOT just electromagnetism) offers the very best capability waiting for development. But design of more effective sensing networks BOTH for electromagnetic signals and for nuclear forces depends on our UNDERSTANDING of nuclear forces, AND our development of new nanotechnology. I have not posted much on these,

in hopes that USGOV could get the world started here in the safest possible way... but USGOV this year is not what it used to be

in these kinds of sectors.

As a result, I hereby attach four papers getting deep into the best technology both for the sensing aspects and for the information processing. ========

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Above all, I am concerned about the penetration of the Chinese military by organizations in Harbin set up by the old Stalinist factions in Russia still in operation. I once thought Pan Janwei's followers, including key people I met in Tsinghua and CAS and NSFC, had a mandate to continue Hu Jin Tao's vision of a win-win new world , with more room for the spiritual and qi connections which Bo Xilai tried to destroy. However, when I visited Tsinghua (e.g. see werbos.com/triphoton.pdf), I learned that certain military people had the power to take over, distort and repress what the seekers of truth try to develop. Current plans to begin a new war, run from Harbin, with global escalation, do NOT reflect values

which XI believes in. Xi, like Trump, has sincerely supported goals which are at risk due to the people he gives too much trust to. But across the Sea of Japan...

BUT: though I am a Quaker, I am NOT asserting that a pacifist retreat is always required. Von Neumann sought peace, but "straight and narrow is the path." 

Under these conditions, it is as difficult and far more risky than any time in the Cold War ever was.

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